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Author Topic: 538 Senate forecast released  (Read 558 times)
greenforest32
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« on: September 19, 2012, 12:59:04 am »
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http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/fivethirtyeight-forecast-g-o-p-senate-hopes-slipping/

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An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. Republicans have about a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance, giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a filibuster-proof majority.

But the odds of a favorable overall outcome for Democrats have increased in recent weeks. The forecast model now gives them a 70 percent chance of controlling the chamber, either by having at least 50 seats and the presidency, or 51 without it.

Although this represents the first official FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Senate this year, I ran backdated forecasts to July 1 based on the polls that were available at that time. Two weeks ago, for example, the model would have given Democrats a 52 percent chance of retaining Senate control and four weeks ago, it would have given them a 39 percent chance.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: September 19, 2012, 01:07:41 am »
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Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.
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BeccaM
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« Reply #2 on: September 19, 2012, 04:43:51 am »
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Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.

Not at all.
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Vosem
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« Reply #3 on: September 19, 2012, 05:22:08 am »
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I'm disappointed. Taken individually, each estimate is reasonable, but put them together and you have a lot of problems: Berg is not more likely to win than Fischer, yes, but the one that came to my mind was that Akin is not more likely to win than Brown. Tim Kaine is not more likely than Dean Heller. Denny Rehberg is also not more likely than Tommy Thompson. And so on and so forth.

Is it pretty realistic? Yeah. Does it favor the Ds a bit? Yeah.
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Illegally selling arms to North Korea, providing most of the money to anti-Morales rebels in Bolivia, and using the remainder as hush money for his three ex-mistrisses. 
morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: September 19, 2012, 05:26:09 am »
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Nah I can understand why...there's quite a bit of focus on the partisan ballot and fundraising.

I don't think Florida is Safe Dem though, which is the major one I concern about.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2012, 06:50:55 am »
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And lol at West Virginia.  Raese doesn't stand a chance in hell. 
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Miles
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« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2012, 08:37:13 am »
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Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.

Not at all.

...Berg has an 82% chance of winning and Fischer has a 77% chance.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #7 on: September 19, 2012, 08:37:22 pm »
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Why is TN labeled as 96% Republican win when the other slam-dunk states are at 99%?
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Lief
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« Reply #8 on: September 19, 2012, 09:08:03 pm »
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Republican chances of taking the Senate plummeted today, down to 21%.
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True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2012, 03:17:28 am »
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Why is TN labeled as 96% Republican win when the other slam-dunk states are at 99%?

Probably because the complete lack of polls coming out of Tennessee leaves his model unable to be more certain.
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People find meaning and redemption in the most unusual human connections. Khaled Hosseini
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