Is a wave building?

[Lief 🗽]

In the last week or so, we've seen huge shifts across the country to Democratic candidates for Senate, in states across the country and across the demographic spectrum. Baldwin has surged into the lead (or at least into a tie) in Wisconsin, after being left for dead against Thompson. Kaine has broken the deadlock in Virginia and now appears to be somewhere between slightly ahead and solidly ahead. And Warren looks to be consolidating the Democratic vote in Massachusetts and overturning Brown's lead. What looked over the summer like a near certainty (the Republicans taking the Senate), now looks pretty far-fetched, and there's a good chance that the Democrats might actually make net gains in the Senate if the polling we're seeing right now holds.

Is a national shift occurring? Is it just a coincidence, and state by state dynamics are favoring Democrats all at the same time? If there is a national shift, will it affect the House races as well?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Perhaps a moderate sized wave, but nothing like 2006, '08 or '10.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Not sure, though without major changes, the Republican Party is in for some long, dry years. A party that makes denying science a key part of its platform really can't get far in a society increasingly dominated by science and technology.

[Skill and Chance]

I wonder if the House will be back in play by October?  Then again, the Democrats probably need a ridiculous PV margin there to take control.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Dems might still be enjoying their convention bumps. But....... if there is a wave, its probably about half the size of '94, '02, '06, '08, '10.
I doubt the GOP takes the Senate, but they will keep the House. It'll take another ObamaSllide to retake the House.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I think it's not necessarily a wave so much as it is that the general election is in full swing mode right now, and let's face it, Romney's convention bounce was minimal-to-nonexistent compared to Obama/Bill Clinton's. I think (or at least hope) that these asinine comments made by Todd Akin and Mitt Romney will come back to bite them in the @$$ when the voters pull the plug, but a lot can still happen between now and then, so we'll see.

[Vosem]

Democrats are doing better, but the basic answer is no.

[memphis]

Not sure, though without major changes, the Republican Party is in for some long, dry years. A party that makes denying science a key part of its platform really can't get far in a society increasingly dominated by science and technology.

Science denial isn't their problem. It's the gradual decline of the white population. With the electorate of 20 years ago, the GOP would have an enormous advantage.

[Mr.Phips]

I wonder if the House will be back in play by October?  Then again, the Democrats probably need a ridiculous PV margin there to take control.

Five points would probably be enough to shift to control.  The only once competitive seats that were moved out of reach for Democrats in redistricting were AL-05, CO-04, GA-08, IN-09, NJ-07, OH-01, OH-12, OH-15, PA-11, and TN-08 and Dem held seats NC-08, NC-11, and NC-13.  While once solidly GOP districts like CO-06, MD-06, IL-13. and CA-10 became much more competitive.