538 Senate forecast released

[greenforest32]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/fivethirtyeight-forecast-g-o-p-senate-hopes-slipping/

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[Miles]

Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.

[BM]

Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.

Not at all.

[Vosem]

I'm disappointed. Taken individually, each estimate is reasonable, but put them together and you have a lot of problems: Berg is not more likely to win than Fischer, yes, but the one that came to my mind was that Akin is not more likely to win than Brown. Tim Kaine is not more likely than Dean Heller. Denny Rehberg is also not more likely than Tommy Thompson. And so on and so forth.

Is it pretty realistic? Yeah. Does it favor the Ds a bit? Yeah.

[morgieb]

Nah I can understand why...there's quite a bit of focus on the partisan ballot and fundraising.

I don't think Florida is Safe Dem though, which is the major one I concern about.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

And lol at West Virginia.  Raese doesn't stand a chance in hell. 

[Miles]

Nice.

My only disagreement is that they have Berkley more likely to win than Tester.


Also, Berg is more favored than Fischer.

Not at all.

...Berg has an 82% chance of winning and Fischer has a 77% chance.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Why is TN labeled as 96% Republican win when the other slam-dunk states are at 99%?

[Lief 🗽]

Republican chances of taking the Senate plummeted today, down to 21%.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why is TN labeled as 96% Republican win when the other slam-dunk states are at 99%?

Probably because the complete lack of polls coming out of Tennessee leaves his model unable to be more certain.