2018 Midterms...With Different Senate Maps?

[mcmikk]

Perhaps this isn't the correct category for this, but how do you think the 2018 midterms if everything else stayed the same, but the Senate elections took place for different Senate classes?

How would Democrats fare against Class 2(where Republicans still would have a small chance of holding the Senate) or in Class 3(where Republican are very overexposed)? What seats would be hotly contested and what would the final outcome be?

My predictions:
Class 2

Democrats would fare quite good chances of taking down Tillis and Gardner, as well as picking up Maine if Collins were to retire. They could knock out Ernst if everything goes well for them, but they continue to do worse and worse in Iowa in recent years. They may contest Georgia(it continues to trend leftward) and could make it a toss-up, and they might have a decent chance of taking down Mitch McConnell(certainly a better chance than winning an open seat in KY). But since they only need to pickup 3 seats to win control of the Senate, I'd say they're favored to win.

Ultimately, D+3/4, one way or another.

Class 3

Democrats are almost certain to win back the Senate if this class was up in 2018. They would likely pick up Wisconsin(I would love to see Ron Johnson lose reelection) and Pennsylvania, and would be favored to win in Florida and North Carolina. They could also fiercely contest Georgia, Arizona, Missouri(if they run Kander again), as well as Iowa(if Grassley retired).

I'd wager D+5/6.

What are everyone else's thoughts on this?

[Orser67]

Class 2: I think Collins (ME) would be ok if she ran, but Gardner (CO) would be an underdog and Tillis (NC) would face a tough challenge. Daines (MT), Ernst (IA), Sullivan (AK), and Perdue (GA) would all be plausible targets. I don't think Democrats have a serious chance of winning a Senate race in Kentucky in 2018, regardless of circumstances. With Trump in office, Democrats would be heavily favored to hold each of their own seats, even with retirements. I think Dems would probably pick up a couple seats net.

Class 3: Rubio (FL), Burr (NC), Toomey (PA), Johnson (WI), and McCain's seat (AZ) would all be competitive. Portman (OH), Isakson (GA), Young (IN), Blunt (MO) and maybe Grassley (IA) would be plausible targets. Murkowski (AK) could also be a target if there's a three-person race. With Trump in office, Democrats would be heavily favored to hold each of their own seats, even with retirements. I think Democrats would probably pick up about five seats.

[Coraxion]

Class 2: Dems gain CO, NC, IA, ME (if Collins retires), MT, AK, GA, KY, KS, and MS (with Hood). D+10.

Class 3: Dems gain PA, WI, MO, NC, IA, AZ, OH, FL, KS, GA, LA, and IN. D+12.

[mcmikk]

Class 2: Dems gain CO, NC, IA, ME (if Collins retires), MT, AK, GA, KY, KS, and MS (with Hood). D+10.

Class 3: Dems gain PA, WI, MO, NC, IA, AZ, OH, FL, KS, GA, LA, and IN. D+12.

Even I think that's a bit generous to Democrats. While I think they have a barely fighting chance of winning in KY, Mississippi and Kansas are way too out-of-reach for them. Kansas Class 2 was only competitive in 2014 because the Democrat left the race and Roberts faced an Independent challenger who refused to say which party he would even caucus with. Kansas Class 3 was never competitive and I just can't see how they could win there, no matter how much damage Trump/the Kansas GOP causes. I think they could win IA Class 3, but only if Grassley retires. OH is just a little bit out there(at least against Portman), and Louisiana and Kansas are way out of reach. Indiana was only competitive in 2016 because of former Senator Evan Bayh entering the race, and even then he ended up losing pretty handily. I have my doubts about IN.

[Strudelcutie4427]

Class 2: Dems gain CO, NC, IA, ME (if Collins retires), MT, AK, GA, KY, KS, and MS (with Hood). D+10.

Class 3: Dems gain PA, WI, MO, NC, IA, AZ, OH, FL, KS, GA, LA, and IN. D+12.

Yeah, and I'm going apple picking with Scooby Doo tomorrow