What happens to the GOP if they fail in November?

[auburntiger]

SUBURBIA!

Republicans cannot afford to keep losing suburbia and win elections. That's been the trend since 2000 and it doesn't seem to be reversing. They used to have room to breathe when CA, IL, MI, NJ, PA, CT were trending blue and stayed blue, but now NV, CO, VA are slipping away and picking up steam moving in the democrats direction...there are now too few paths to victory.

If the republicans want to make a comeback and build a winning coalition, their underlying theme should be: let's make the government more efficient and work for us better, rather than the slash spending tea
Party rhetoric.

They must drop the anti-regulation rhetoric as some are just basic necessities (water, air, roads) but tork it up on reducing for things like small businesses, etc. Be pro-life, but emphasize the constitutionality of roe v wade, and introduce plans to reduce the number of abortions. Recognize that suburbia has in fact become more urban, and therefore some spending and transportation services are necessary. They must drop the xenophobic mentality and be strong on making it easier to become citizens and deport those who commit crimes. The anti-gay rhetoric will only further alienate. Candidates can be for traditional marriage, but be pro-civil unions or at least make the argument that places of worship should not be forced to recognize a union that's against their beliefs (protecting the separation of church and state). Especially if the financial crisis gets worse, we must phase out the entities that drag down our GDP (not immediately cut them). Education: reward teachers on merit. Climate change: pursue legislation protecting our environment. Eliminate the tax loopholes for the wealthy.

Basically, a big-tent mentality and recognize there is middle ground! Maybe Jon Huntsman or a like-minded candidate would be a good start.

[auburntiger]

What has done in the GOP this cycle is (A) the absence of A-list candidates in the primary process, and (B) the lack of credibility their standard bearer.  Mitt Romney will be the very last GOP candidate for the GOP that will not be a true "movement conservative".

The GOP is down in the polls due solely to the personal shortcomings of Mitt Romney.  Romney's unpopularity has little to do with his positions on issues; it has much to do with the perception that he is man with no core principles who made a Faustian bargain with conservatives that has not worked out well for movement conservatives.

If Romney loses, the conservative base will take steps to ensure that a movement conservative who is ready for prime time will be the candidate in 2016.  This probably rules out Jeb Bush, and it will probably rule out Paul Ryan, who has lost standing during this campaign.  I believe that by the end of 2013, movement conservatives will be coalescing around a particular movement conservative candidate to make sure that there are no more McCains and no more Romneys.

If by "movement conservative" you mean tea-party, this is huge risk for Republicans in 2016. It's going to matter how Obama is perceived that year. If his second term is a success, I very doubt the tea-party would be strong enough force to put forth a candidate to win then. However, if his second term is a failure, GOP could win, but it's going to be a tight rope to walk in the electoral college. Could states like PA, MI, or MN be realistic opportunities for pickups?

The question for the GOP will ultimately be, how do we expand the map, and from that a strong winning coalition in Suburbia? Call it the Suburban Strategy.
We have only seen 2010 as evidence so far for success of the tea party movement and only that in selective states.

That said, if the GOP nominates a Rick Perry type, they might as well wait til 2020. If it's a Huntsman type, that would be the best thing for them.