Questioning State vs. National Polls

[Skill and Chance]

There have been a lot of recent swing state polls that are much more favorable to Obama than we would expect for a 3-4% national lead.  There are really 3 reasonable ways to explain this.

1. The state polls are off.

2. The national polls are off.

3. They are both right, because Romney is getting 65% in Texas and 45% in California.

[mondale84]

There have been a lot of recent swing state polls that are much more favorable to Obama than we would expect for a 3-4% national lead.  There are really 3 reasonable ways to explain this.

1. The state polls are off.

2. The national polls are off.

3. They are both right, because Romney is getting 65% in Texas and 45% in California.

LOL no.

[Skill and Chance]

There have been a lot of recent swing state polls that are much more favorable to Obama than we would expect for a 3-4% national lead.  There are really 3 reasonable ways to explain this.

1. The state polls are off.

2. The national polls are off.

3. They are both right, because Romney is getting 65% in Texas and 45% in California.

LOL no.

How else do you reconcile a 3% swing to Romney nationally with a 2008 repeat in the swing states?!

[ChrisFromNJ]

I think what we will see in this election is the further polarization of the electorate. We will see Romney run up historic margins in his base states, such as the Deep South and Utah, which may cost him a few % points in the popular vote. But it's hard to deny that the swing states that will decide this election have, up to this point, held firm in their support of President Obama. I will be interested to see, if President Obama does win the election, what % of the vote he gets in states like Texas. I think Romney has a change to win 60% of the vote in that state. And increase McCain's margins from GOP strongholds.

The rural/urban divide should be rather stark; even starker than in 2008.

[mondale84]

There have been a lot of recent swing state polls that are much more favorable to Obama than we would expect for a 3-4% national lead.  There are really 3 reasonable ways to explain this.

1. The state polls are off.

2. The national polls are off.

3. They are both right, because Romney is getting 65% in Texas and 45% in California.

LOL no.

How else do you reconcile a 3% swing to Romney nationally with a 2008 repeat in the swing states?!

Because Romney isn't overperforming McCain in Texas or the Deep South. Just not gonna happen. And LOL at the idea of Romney cracking 40% in Cali...

The national polls are junk because Gallup and Rassmussen are trolls who just poll landlines and cook their books to make the race appear closer than it really is.

[Lief 🗽]

The state polls provide much, much more data than the national polls, which are few and dominated by two polling firms with questionable track records. As there is no evidence that Obama is underperforming in the blue states (in fact he seems to be at or near his 2008 levels) or that Romney is overperforming in the red states (in fact the opposite seems to be true, at least compared to McCain in 2008), we should accept that the state polls most likely provide a more accurate picture of the race as it currently is.