Rally Around the Virginians: McDonnell/Martinez vs. Warner/Klobuchar 2016

[Skill and Chance]

Assume that Obama is re-elected by 50%/48% in 2012 and he carries VA by the same margin.  Warner and McDonnell trade their current jobs during Obama's second term and retain their high approvals.  Obama's job approval improves to a good but not heroic 53% on 3-4% GDP growth since 2015.  Republicans keep the house and pick up the senate in 2014. 

Who wins?  What does the map look like and what would happen in VA? 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

  Warner-Klobucher 265      49.7%
McDonnell-Martinez 273      50.2%

Warner is way more popular than McDonnell in Virginia and would carry Virginia. But it'd be close. Martinez helps close the gap among Hispanics and leads to a close election. Narrow McDonnell win.