PPP/National Resource Defense Council (OH, VA, PA, MI, NM, FL, NV, WI)
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Author Topic: PPP/National Resource Defense Council (OH, VA, PA, MI, NM, FL, NV, WI)  (Read 2685 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 28, 2012, 10:57:21 PM »
« edited: September 28, 2012, 11:07:39 PM by Tender Branson »
OHIO

50% Obama
44% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/OhioResults92112.pdf

VIRGINIA

49% Obama
43% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/VirginiaResults92112.pdf

PENNSYLVANIA

52% Obama
40% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/PennsylvaniaResults92112.pdf

MICHIGAN

51% Obama
42% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/MichiganResults92112.pdf

NEW MEXICO

52% Obama
43% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/NewMexicoResults92112.pdf

FLORIDA

48% Obama
46% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/FloridaResults92112.pdf

NEVADA

52% Obama
43% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/NevadaResults921121.pdf

WISCONSIN

51% Obama
45% Romney

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/WisconsinResults92112.pdf

Complete release:

http://www.nrdcactionfund.org/undecidedvoters
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2012, 10:57:54 PM »
Those all seem about right.
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2012, 10:59:23 PM »
Great numbers.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2012, 11:02:09 PM »
I believe the numbers are probably about right, I'm still hesitant that VA is going to be that big of a win... But since it's for the NRDC it's probably going have to have a grain of salt...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2012, 11:03:14 PM »
Polls are already older though: conducted Sept. 14-20
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #5 on: September 28, 2012, 11:06:38 PM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 28, 2012, 11:03:14 PM
Polls are already older though: conducted Sept. 14-20

If anything, Romney's only been damaged more in all of those states since then.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2012, 11:09:13 PM »
Great numbers across the board, though I wish they'd polled the senate races as well.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2012, 12:46:42 AM »
Should this be added to the database ?
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RI
realisticidealist
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2012, 12:54:38 AM »

We've entered PPP's other polls for clients before. I don't see why this should be different.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2012, 01:07:00 AM »
Quote from: realisticidealist on September 29, 2012, 12:54:38 AM

We've entered PPP's other polls for clients before. I don't see why this should be different.

Well yeah, the polls are old already, so it won't mess up the average in the database anyway.
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Reds4
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2012, 01:14:38 AM »
Most of these seem reasonable.... not a bad result in Florida for Romney, but overall definitely good numbers for Obama.

Would be surprised if PA is more of a blowout than NM though.
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morgieb
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2012, 04:19:03 AM »
Numbers seem reasonable, kinda skeptical though given that it was sponsored by a special interest group.
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Andrew1
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2012, 04:40:04 AM »
These polls have a huge sample size, of around 3,000 per state, in order to get a decent sized subsample of undecideds, which is what the NRDC was interested in.

They also did an oversample of undecideds, to get around 300 undecideds per state, and then reported those results separately.

Overall they found undecideds, when pressed to make a choice, split Romney 32, Obama 20, Still undecided 49.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2012, 04:43:09 AM »
Quote from: Reds4 on September 29, 2012, 01:14:38 AM
Most of these seem reasonable.... not a bad result in Florida for Romney, but overall definitely good numbers for Obama.

Would be surprised if PA is more of a blowout than NM though.

And why PA is more Democratic than Michigan.  Tongue  lol
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Brittain33
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2012, 06:36:45 AM »
Splendid news!
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2012, 06:50:26 AM »

Probably not. Advocacy group. 
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2012, 09:00:03 AM »
When your candidate is up by 2 in Florida and you think "damn, I thought he was leading by 5 here", you have reasons to be happy Smiley
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Umengus
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2012, 12:29:59 PM »
LOL

Romney wins independents by 10 in FL, by 17 in OH, by 19 in VA, by 20 in PA, by 2 in MI, by 6 in NM, by 15 in NV and by 6 in WI.


Junk polls
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2012, 12:31:14 PM »
Republicans are so ashamed that they have a failure like Mitt Romney as their candidate that they're telling pollsters they're independents.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2012, 12:40:10 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on September 29, 2012, 12:29:59 PM
LOL

Romney wins independents by 10 in FL, by 17 in OH, by 19 in VA, by 20 in PA, by 2 in MI, by 6 in NM, by 15 in NV and by 6 in WI.


Junk polls

Look up 2012 polls for self-identified independents vs. moderates.  What you will see is that independents are more of a conservative than centrist group this year.  For some reason most left-leaners are identifying as Dem this season.  I wouldn't be surprised if McCain won this year's "independents" by 5 in 20088.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2012, 12:46:26 PM »
« Edited: September 29, 2012, 12:49:03 PM by Skewed Voter »
Once again some people are acting like party ID is like race, age or sex. It is not. It changes just like presidential approval changes. Party ID is not party registration, it is an attitude not a demographic.


The following explains this whole party ID and Indies preferring Romney thing
Quote
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http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats


For more reading for those obsessed with Party ID...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster


If one or two polls showed a big shift in party ID they could be seen as outliers. When every non-Rasmussen poll shows it, it is a trend...not a conspiracy.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2012, 12:49:22 PM »
Quote from: Umengus on September 29, 2012, 12:29:59 PM
LOL

Romney wins independents by 10 in FL, by 17 in OH, by 19 in VA, by 20 in PA, by 2 in MI, by 6 in NM, by 15 in NV and by 6 in WI.


Junk polls

This.  These polls are junk re party ID sampling
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2012, 12:52:00 PM »
Quote from: timothyinMD on September 29, 2012, 12:49:22 PM
Quote from: Umengus on September 29, 2012, 12:29:59 PM
LOL

Romney wins independents by 10 in FL, by 17 in OH, by 19 in VA, by 20 in PA, by 2 in MI, by 6 in NM, by 15 in NV and by 6 in WI.


Junk polls

This.  These polls are junk re party ID sampling

PPP doesn't weight by party.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #23 on: September 29, 2012, 01:06:18 PM »
The voting electorate does, and the make up of the electorate will not be the numbers in these polls. 
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Yank2133
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #24 on: September 29, 2012, 01:13:18 PM »
Quote from: Skewed Voter on September 29, 2012, 12:46:26 PM
Once again some people are acting like party ID is like race, age or sex. It is not. It changes just like presidential approval changes. Party ID is not party registration, it is an attitude not a demographic.


The following explains this whole party ID and Indies preferring Romney thing
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/107813/no-the-polls-arent-oversampling-democrats


For more reading for those obsessed with Party ID...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/unskewed-polls_b_1924293.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster


If one or two polls showed a big shift in party ID they could be seen as outliers. When every non-Rasmussen poll shows it, it is a trend...not a conspiracy.

Pretty much this.
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