PPP/DailyKos weekly poll: Obama+5 nationally (likely voters)

[J. J.]

The idea that it's somehow ridiculous to predict Democratic turnout similar to 2008 may have held some truth during the summer, but it doesn't anymore. Democratic enthusiasm is back up to 2008 levels and this election is looking more and more like a repeat of four years ago.

Ah, where do you get that?

I know that, at this point, there were both stronger registration and campaign activities for Obama in Phila in 2008.  I've been surprised how quiet the voter registration office was last week.

PPP is in line with Gallup.

[J. J.]

The idea that it's somehow ridiculous to predict Democratic turnout similar to 2008 may have held some truth during the summer, but it doesn't anymore. Democratic enthusiasm is back up to 2008 levels and this election is looking more and more like a repeat of four years ago.

Ah, where do you get that?

I know that, at this point, there were both stronger registration and campaign activities for Obama in Phila in 2008.  I've been surprised how quiet the voter registration office was last week.

PPP is in line with Gallup.

I get it from the numerous polls that show as much, a considerably better source than your anecdotal evidence from a solid Obama state.

Well, the polls are not showing it.  I'm not seeing it on the ground. 

[J. J.]

This is why the right is freaking out about the polling at the moment. They were relying on the economy to keep Obama's voters disinterested and disenchanted. What's clear is that since the DNC, the Democratic base is enthusiastic and has at worst closed the enthusiasm gap the GOP had been talking about all year as being the foundation of their victory.

They simply cannot believe that the base is enthusiastic, let alone anywhere near 2008 levels... the fervor is gone, but that doesn't mean the energy has too.

Because no one seeing it after the convention bounce.  Fundraising hasn't been there.  It's not showing up in strongly approved numbers.  Democratic registration seems like it is down (it is in FL and NC, where I've checked.)

[J. J.]

This is why the right is freaking out about the polling at the moment. They were relying on the economy to keep Obama's voters disinterested and disenchanted. What's clear is that since the DNC, the Democratic base is enthusiastic and has at worst closed the enthusiasm gap the GOP had been talking about all year as being the foundation of their victory.

They simply cannot believe that the base is enthusiastic, let alone anywhere near 2008 levels... the fervor is gone, but that doesn't mean the energy has too.

Because no one seeing it after the convention bounce.  Fundraising hasn't been there.  It's not showing up in strongly approved numbers.  Democratic registration seems like it is down (it is in FL and NC, where I've checked.)

Well we haven't seen September fundraising yet, there's a very clear reason why registration in FL is down.

I was looking at it in NC as well, but in regard to early voting.  As of 9/22, R gained about 6,000 voters since 2008; Ind. gained about 12,000.  D lost 88,000.  The electorate looks less Democratic.

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I will agree that enthusiasm is down, overall, but the premise is that D/R turnout will be what it was, or very close to what it was, in 2008, is one I'm buying.