What will Duval County Florida vote for?

[LiberalJunkie]

?

[Chaddyr23]

Even with the energized black vote the county has a huge military presence. The county could be close given that most whites that move to the area live in Nassau and St Johns Cty now but I'll still say Romney/Ryan.

[old timey villain]

Hard to say. I think it's anybody's today guess but that wasn't the case 10 years ago. The county actually swung against Bush in 2004 and it swung hard for Obama in 2008, likely due to an increased minority turnout. Still, if Obama wins Florida by a bigger margin than he did in 08, he could win Duval.

[Donerail]

Romney/Ryan, and it probably won't be that close.

[mondale84]

Obama easily.

[minionofmidas]

Of course there are, um, special reasons for part of the 1996-2000 and 2000-4 swings. But yeah, the county went from 10 points more Republican than the county in 2004 and 12 points more in 1996 to just 5 in 2008, and it's hard not to see long-term trends at work here. Though the military presence may be a clue, seeing as that's just about the only group with decreased turnout in 2008. And one whose electoral behavior in 2012 will be interesting to observe.

Anyways, it's possible. I wouldn't bet on it flipping, but it's possible.

[Badger]

Romney.

[5280]

R/R

[dspNY]

Romney by 2-4 points...but if Obama wins Duval he wins Florida easily and probably wins a couple of states nobody expects

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama easily.

Perhaps you should have checked Duval County before making yet another useless post?

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Obama easily.

Please
Shut the f[inks] up

[mondale84]

Obama easily.

Please
Shut the f[inks] up

Obama is up by 4-5 points in FL and - come election day - he'll be ahead by 10. So it doesn't seem that far-fetched that he will win Duval by 5-8 points.

[Niemeyerite]

My guts say Obama will carry Duval by less than 1%, while winning in FL by 4 points.

[Brittain33]

Of course there are, um, special reasons for part of the 1996-2000 and 2000-4 swings.

We're not supposed to talk about that. Hey, look, it's ACORN!

[Badger]

Obama easily.

Please
Shut the f[inks] up

Obama is up by 4-5 points in FL and - come election day - he'll be ahead by 10. So it doesn't seem that far-fetched that he will win Duval by 5-8 points.

Okay, Mondale, i've challenged some of my fellow blue avatar zealots to put up or shut up, I guess I should do the same on the other side of the aisle.

I'd love to know if you'll bet regarding MT or TN. For now, I'm willing to bet you that Obama won't hit 54% of the vote in FL. Loser has to bare the other's choice of an avatar from Election Day to Inauguration Day. Whaddya say?

EDIT: I meant "Sig", not avatar (though we could include that in the bet too if you're willing).

[Dereich]

As a Duval resident myself, I can say that I'm sure it'll be Romney/Ryan. I'd guess Romney will run about 3 or 4 points ahead of the state in Duval. Obama pretty much maxed out what he could get here in 2008.

[justW353]

As a Duval resident myself, I can say that I'm sure it'll be Romney/Ryan. I'd guess Romney will run about 3 or 4 points ahead of the state in Duval. Obama pretty much maxed out what he could get here in 2008.

I'm a Clay resident, and this is dead on.

[Donerail]

As a Duval resident myself, I can say that I'm sure it'll be Romney/Ryan. I'd guess Romney will run about 3 or 4 points ahead of the state in Duval. Obama pretty much maxed out what he could get here in 2008.

I'm a Clay resident, and this is dead on.

^^^^From I've seen/read/heard of Duval, this is certainly right. If Obama carries Florida by a significantly larger margin than statewide, maybe, but under current conditions Duval isn't exactly a bellwether.

[GMantis]

Romney. Obama is unlikely to win Florida by the margin he needs to win Duval.

[Chaddyr23]

Do we all live in North Central FL?! (Alachua here!)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even Bill Nelson couldn't win it in 2000, and in 2006 he won it by only 8 points against a colossal train wreck. And Bill Nelson is a somewhat conservative white guy is actually from Duval.