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Author Topic: 10 counties to watch  (Read 726 times)
Snowstalker
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« on: September 25, 2012, 12:54:07 pm »
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Who will win each of the following counties? I'll state later why I'm watching each one for how it votes.

Fayette, PA
Floyd, KY
Loudon, VA
Duval, FL
Dare, NC
Plymouth, MA
DuPage, IL
Pine, MN
Orange, CA
Douglas, GA
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 01:03:56 pm »
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Fayette, PA- Romney (but not by much more than 2008)
Floyd, KY- Romney (by roughly same)
Loudon, VA- Obama (possibly by greater than 2008)
Duval, FL- Obama by less than 2% (inner city trending Dem)
Dare, NC- Romney
Plymouth, MA- Obama
DuPage, IL- Obama
Pine, MN- Obama
Orange, CA- Romney (very narrow)
Douglas, GA- Obama (possibly by a few points more due to minority growth)
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mondale84
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 01:28:55 pm »
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Obama will win all of them.
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cope1989
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 01:37:01 pm »
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I'd also watch Gwinnett County, GA. It's been Republican for years but it's less than 44% white now. if the second largest county in the state goes for Obama it could be a sign that Georgia will be competitive in the future.
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Can't we all just get along?
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 01:45:57 pm »
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the crazy thing about DuPage 08 was that Obama won by almost eleven points. beating his national tack by a non-negligible amount.  if the race keeps heading where we think it's heading he will win DuPage but I find it hard to believe he will beat his national number by 3.6%ish again
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SJoyce
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2012, 02:03:38 pm »
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Don't see Duval swinging; they went R in every election except 76 and 64 (and 68, but not for the Democrat).
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2012, 02:50:23 pm »
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Don't see Duval swinging; they went R in every election except 76 and 64 (and 68, but not for the Democrat).

It actually also voted R in 1964.
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2012, 03:09:58 pm »
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My reasons for including each:

Fayette, PA: traditionally Democratic county which Obama lost in 2008 for the first time since 1972; can Romney's lack of appeal with blue-collars swing it back?
Floyd, KY: A county that has never voted Republican swung to McCain in 2008 despite having gone over 60% for Kerry, but it was really close. Another test of the white blue-collar vote.
Loudon, VA: The closest of the NoVa counties that Obama won. A test of whether Romney really can make gains in affluent suburbia.
Duval, FL: A traditionally Republican county, it was close in 2008. Can Obama carry it with the increasingly diversifying population?
Dare, NC: Though McCain won it by 9%, it voted against Amendment 1 (possibly because of the claims that it would harm tourism; Dare's Outer Banks are a big vacation spot).
Plymouth, MA: The only county in Massachusetts that was more Republican than the national average. Can Romney pick up one county in his home state?
DuPage, IL: Obama carried a traditionally affluent Republican county in his home state by a significant margin; will the favorite son effect continue or will it snap back?
Pine, MN: Once part of the Democratic blue-collar Iron Range, Pine is increasingly becoming an exurban Minneapolis county. Does Obama hold on?
Orange, CA: The ultimate test of wealthy whites swinging to Romney vs. heavy minority (specifically Hispanic) turnout. Hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since the New Deal.
Douglas, GA: A narrow Obama county in 2008; suburban but racially diverse. Like Orange, will Obama's coalition stay together?
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2012, 03:12:53 pm »
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I'm taking Snowstalkers counties and adding mine.

Fayette, PA
Floyd, KY
Loudon, VA
Duval, FL
Dare, NC
Plymouth, MA
DuPage, IL
Pine, MN
Orange, CA
Douglas, GA
Jefferson, CO
Arapahoe, CO
Larimer, CO
Albany, WY
Ventura, CA
Carson City, NV
Dallas, TX
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
Snowstalker
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2012, 08:44:58 pm »
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You sure about Dallas? I'd say Harris is a better bellwether.

And my bets on how they go:

Fayette, PA: Obama
Floyd, KY: Obama
Loudon, VA: Obama
Duval, FL: Romney
Dare, NC: Romney
Plymouth, MA: Romney
DuPage, IL: Obama
Pine, MN: Obama
Orange, CA: Romney
Douglas, GA: Obama
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R2D2
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« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2012, 09:40:01 pm »
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Montgomery County, PA

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seb_pard
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« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2012, 09:54:19 pm »
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and staten island?
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jfern
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2012, 12:23:06 am »
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Will Romney do better than McCain in Maverick County, TX? Of course Obama will win it, but McCain did terribly there, which was hilarious.
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tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2012, 05:52:05 pm »
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and staten island?

good call.  Romney should play relatively well there, gun to my head I say he carries it
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #14 on: October 08, 2012, 09:57:30 am »
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Bump. Thoughts on these 10?
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #15 on: October 08, 2012, 03:15:03 pm »
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Keys to winning the election:
Jefferson, CO Loudoun, VA, Wake, NC, Hillsborough, FL, Hamilton, OH, Washoe, NV, Brown, WI

For fun:
Plymouth and Barnstable, MA
All of Utah
All of Hawaii
Southern WV
Northwest ND
Suffolk, NY

For purposes of looking to the future:
Maricopa, AZ, Harris, TX, Cobb, GA will be interesting
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2012, 03:20:34 pm »
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Keys to winning the election:
Washoe, NV

THANK YOU!!!!
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2012, 06:00:18 pm »
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the crazy thing about DuPage 08 was that Obama won by almost eleven points. beating his national tack by a non-negligible amount.  if the race keeps heading where we think it's heading he will win DuPage but I find it hard to believe he will beat his national number by 3.6%ish again
I think Romney narrowly wins DuPage County.
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