10 counties to watch (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 30, 2024, 07:29:14 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  10 counties to watch (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: 10 counties to watch  (Read 1110 times)
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
« on: September 25, 2012, 12:54:07 PM »

Who will win each of the following counties? I'll state later why I'm watching each one for how it votes.

Fayette, PA
Floyd, KY
Loudon, VA
Duval, FL
Dare, NC
Plymouth, MA
DuPage, IL
Pine, MN
Orange, CA
Douglas, GA
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 02:50:23 PM »

Don't see Duval swinging; they went R in every election except 76 and 64 (and 68, but not for the Democrat).

It actually also voted R in 1964.
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 03:09:58 PM »

My reasons for including each:

Fayette, PA: traditionally Democratic county which Obama lost in 2008 for the first time since 1972; can Romney's lack of appeal with blue-collars swing it back?
Floyd, KY: A county that has never voted Republican swung to McCain in 2008 despite having gone over 60% for Kerry, but it was really close. Another test of the white blue-collar vote.
Loudon, VA: The closest of the NoVa counties that Obama won. A test of whether Romney really can make gains in affluent suburbia.
Duval, FL: A traditionally Republican county, it was close in 2008. Can Obama carry it with the increasingly diversifying population?
Dare, NC: Though McCain won it by 9%, it voted against Amendment 1 (possibly because of the claims that it would harm tourism; Dare's Outer Banks are a big vacation spot).
Plymouth, MA: The only county in Massachusetts that was more Republican than the national average. Can Romney pick up one county in his home state?
DuPage, IL: Obama carried a traditionally affluent Republican county in his home state by a significant margin; will the favorite son effect continue or will it snap back?
Pine, MN: Once part of the Democratic blue-collar Iron Range, Pine is increasingly becoming an exurban Minneapolis county. Does Obama hold on?
Orange, CA: The ultimate test of wealthy whites swinging to Romney vs. heavy minority (specifically Hispanic) turnout. Hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since the New Deal.
Douglas, GA: A narrow Obama county in 2008; suburban but racially diverse. Like Orange, will Obama's coalition stay together?
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 08:44:58 PM »

You sure about Dallas? I'd say Harris is a better bellwether.

And my bets on how they go:

Fayette, PA: Obama
Floyd, KY: Obama
Loudon, VA: Obama
Duval, FL: Romney
Dare, NC: Romney
Plymouth, MA: Romney
DuPage, IL: Obama
Pine, MN: Obama
Orange, CA: Romney
Douglas, GA: Obama
Logged
Snowstalker Mk. II
Snowstalker
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,414
Palestinian Territory, Occupied


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -4.35

P P P
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 09:57:30 AM »

Bump. Thoughts on these 10?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.022 seconds with 14 queries.