Which of the following states should Obama contest now:
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  Which of the following states should Obama contest now:
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Author Topic: Which of the following states should Obama contest now:  (Read 1023 times)
JFK-Democrat
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« on: September 25, 2012, 11:28:07 PM »

Arizona
Missouri
Georgia


Apparently internal polling is showing Obama ahead in Arizona, I think if he is still ahead 2 weeks from now the campaign should make a late play for the state.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2012, 11:34:36 PM »
« Edited: September 25, 2012, 11:37:29 PM by Lief »

Obama should try, if possible, to shift some resources to under-the-radar ground game in Indiana, Missouri and Arizona to increase Democratic turnout in the states and help the senate candidates there. If he wins some of them as well, that's an added bonus.
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Platypus
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2012, 11:37:41 PM »

Ohio, Virginia, and Florida.

--------

Missouri too, if mainly for McCaskill.
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old timey villain
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2012, 11:41:30 PM »

I wish he would contest Georgia, just to see what it's like to live in a swing state.

But he won't. Still, I think we'll be surprised to see how close the race is in Georgia.
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Negusa Nagast 🚀
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2012, 11:45:11 PM »

If he can afford to go on the aggressive, he needs to do so in Arizona, Indian, Montana, and Missouri to boost the Senate races there.

Still, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Romney is hemorrhaging and will probably be dead in the water soon, but we cannot afford to become complacent.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2012, 01:11:08 AM »

I wish he would contest Georgia, just to see what it's like to live in a swing state.

But he won't. Still, I think we'll be surprised to see how close the race is in Georgia.

There are pretty much no competitive downballot races in Georgia.  It would be a waste of resources. 
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2012, 02:14:25 AM »

I say AZ, McCaskill doesn't want nor need Obama. I say push for NC again, a little bit in Central Indiana to help out Donelly even though he's trying to be as independent as possible as well. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2012, 02:21:29 AM »

Arizona, Montana, Missouri, North Dakota and Indiana. Yes he probably won't win any of them but it may help the Senate candidates there get over the line.

He should campaign in Massachusetts for the same reason too.
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Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2012, 05:36:53 AM »

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Terrible strategy. Romney does better among whites. Especially northern whites.

He'd be better off campaigning in AR and MS which is where he should be campaigning.
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2012, 06:43:47 AM »

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Terrible strategy. Romney does better among whites. Especially northern whites.

He'd be better off campaigning in AR and MS which is where he should be campaigning.

Unfortunately, the MS Democratic Party took yet another Senate race off, so Obama would be better off campaigning in a state with a real race.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2012, 07:02:22 AM »

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Terrible strategy. Romney does better among whites. Especially northern whites.

He'd be better off campaigning in AR and MS which is where he should be campaigning.

Unfortunately, the MS Democratic Party took yet another Senate race off, so Obama would be better off campaigning in a state with a real race.


100% agreed. 

I think Arizona is the best state for him to go into at this point.  If he wins there, Carmona almost certainly wins the Senate race. 
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Bacon King
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2012, 07:05:21 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2012, 07:07:02 AM by Bacon King »

There's no reason for Obama personally to spend resources beyond an assured Electoral College victory. Any surplus funds should be used to help Senate and maybe some Congressional candidates who would benefit from his coattails; Lief is right on the money here.

(edit: post 13000, woot)
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Earthling
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2012, 07:09:15 AM »

Reelection for Obama is far from certain at this point. He is not leading this race by 10 points. He is leading by 4. That is great for him, but that doesn't make him a winner in November yet.

If he is leading by 5 in two weeks (after the first debate and the September job numbers), it might be different.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2012, 07:54:58 AM »

Reelection for Obama is far from certain at this point. He is not leading this race by 10 points. He is leading by 4. That is great for him, but that doesn't make him a winner in November yet.

If he is leading by 5 in two weeks (after the first debate and the September job numbers), it might be different.

That's what people said October 2008 when I suggested Obama start shifting resources downballot and nobody listened and Obama ended up getting 365 electoral votes, wasting a lot of EV's in the process and Democrats did far worse than anyone expected in the House.  A campaign stop for Darcy Burner, Jim Esch, Bob Roggio, and Dan Seals would have made the Democratic victory complete that year.  LBJ understood this in 1964 and put his money to use trying to get a huge House majority so that he could pass the Great Society programs. 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2012, 08:16:03 AM »

There's a very weighty historical precedent for Obama to take a McCain state if he wins this election.  I  still don't think it's particularly likely, but you have to go back almost a century to find a re-elected president who got less EV the second time around, and that case involved a 2-on-1 in the first election.
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sg0508
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2012, 09:03:59 AM »

Said it all along, but I believe Arizona is there for the pickings, especially if Obama starts to break the race open, which in recent weeks, it appears he is.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #16 on: September 26, 2012, 09:25:04 AM »

Arizona, Indiana, and North Dakota have tight Senate races. 
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Badger
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« Reply #17 on: September 26, 2012, 09:33:55 AM »

"Contest" or "Personally campaign in"? As noted in this thread, the two aren't necessarily synonomous.

At any rate, I think it's still too early to call Romney dead in the water and foolish for Democrats to risk diverting much resources from OH, FL and VA yet (all of which, especially VA, still have competative senate races worth "sewing up" before moving on). Perhaps putting some additional resources for GOTV and organizing in AZ, IN, MO, MT and ND might be prudent for Obama rather than trying to rush the process with less than a month to go. The latter two states are small enough that a little cash and staff can go a long way.

Still, over-stretching at this point could come back and bite Obama in the backside.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: September 26, 2012, 10:49:14 AM »

I would ramp up the ground game (OFA's GOTV operations) in Missouri, Arizona, and Montana to put McCaskill, Carmona, and Tester over the top. If Obama wins any of these states it's just gravy.

As for running ads or personally appearing in these states, maybe a campaign stop in Phoenix or St. Louis, but that's it
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opebo
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« Reply #19 on: September 26, 2012, 12:02:13 PM »

Missouri, Arizona, and Indiana, in that order, with Missouri the most winnable by a good deal.  I would be very careful about messing around in Montana to try to help Tester - I don't think that electorate is warming to Obama despite the last moment trend in swing states.    
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JFK-Democrat
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« Reply #20 on: September 26, 2012, 01:24:25 PM »

I really think Arizona essentially becomes low hanging fruit in a blowout race ( which is where this race may be heading). I would at least deploy excess GOTV resources from CA now to see if we can at least win the senate seat as some have suggested.
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