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| |-+  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderator: muon2)
| | |-+  How many Congressional districts will Obama carry?
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Author Topic: How many Congressional districts will Obama carry?  (Read 409 times)
Mr.Phips
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« on: September 26, 2012, 12:03:05 am »
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He carried 237 last time under the new lines.  Any districts that Obama lost last time that he might carry and vise versa?
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2012, 01:28:30 am »
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If there was a sortable spreadsheet, it'd be easy to make guesses with uniform swing. (This Daily Kos one doesn't seem to be sortable).

As it stands, with 538 projecting a PV victory of about 3.5 points, I'm guessing that would leave Obama with perhaps a bare majority of CDs. Obama winning with a minority is very plausible.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2012, 01:53:15 am »
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As for McCain/Obama districts, the least McCain AZ districts seem to be the best shots (AZ-02 at 50-49 being the most plausible, followed by AZ-01 at 51-47).

Obama/Romney districts will mostly be the narrowly Obama districts from 2008. CT-04 (Fairfield County, home to lots of finance types) is probably the strongest Obama district (at 60%) that Romney has a reasonable chance at carrying.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2012, 02:06:40 am »
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Are we talking 2008 district lines or 2012 district lines?
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BK without all the crazy drugs just wouldn't be BK.

Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2012, 02:38:57 am »
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Are we talking 2008 district lines or 2012 district lines?

2012 lines. 
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