Early congressional race that could be a preview for the rest of the night?

[Gass3268]

What early congressional race or two could be a preview for the rest of the night?

My guess would be IN-2 or GA-12. If the Dem's do well here, it could be a good night for Democrats.

Any other thoughts?

[Mr.Phips]

IN-08.  If Democrats can pull off an upset there, they will probably be taking back the House.

KY-06.  If Democrats lose this one, they be doing what no party has done in almost sixty years, which is to lose seats while your party's President is being reelected. 

[sg0508]

I doubt it will be called with <90% of the precincts in, but watch the VA Senate race.

[morgieb]

IN-02, probably.

Or maybe even Indiana Senate. If we win it it's gonna be a long night for Team Red.

[Miles]

For 2010, I thought it was KY-06 too.

With Chandler more clearly favored now, I think GA-12 could be a better indicator.

[Bacon King]

GA 12th district won't be an indicator of much else; the race has developed some unique circumstances which are great for John Barrow.

Indeed, I'm beginning to think Barrow will probably hold on. He's raised almost quadruple the money of his opponent, Lee Anderson, and as of the last fundraising reports had more than twelve times as much cash on hand. Barrow also had a huge head start because he was unopposed in the primary, while Anderson wasn't even able to start campaigning until three weeks ago (his primary was July 31st, the primary runoff was August 21st, and due to a razor-thin margin and extended recount, Anderson wasn't officially declared the victor until September 5th). Barrow's been doing some extensive campaign work, with non-stop radio ads everywhere, a ton of town hall meetings in all the tiny towns throughout his district, and some surprisingly high-quality TV ads running in the Augusta and Savannah markets. Also, for whatever reason, Anderson has been refusing to debate Barrow and that's becoming a big news story down there. A bunch of my relatives are the "rural white reliable Republican" voters that were drawn into the 12th district so they could vote Barrow out, but all of them I've talked to about the race are planning to split their ticket and vote for both Romney and Barrow. These people are accustomed to splitting their tickets, anyway; many of the rural white counties added to the district still have plenty of Democratic officials at the local level still winning.

So yeah, fail gerrymander, fail opponent who had a very late start and can't raise money, and an excellent campaign on Barrow's part. It's a unique situation, so Barrow's reelection won't necessarily mean anything for Democratic candidates elsewhere. I'd even argue the seat is "Lean D" at the worst. However, I guess if Anderson does still somehow manage a win, that could be a pretty bad sign for Congressional Democrats elsewhere (it'd mean black turnout is waaay down from 2008 in noncompetitive states, and/or that the "He's a Democrat so he's a socialist just like Obama!" argument works even when the Democratic candidate runs a campaign undeniably superior to his opponent's trainwreck.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That district has such a fycking insane history, doesn't it?

[Skill and Chance]

GA 12th district won't be an indicator of much else; the race has developed some unique circumstances which are great for John Barrow.

Indeed, I'm beginning to think Barrow will probably hold on. He's raised almost quadruple the money of his opponent, Lee Anderson, and as of the last fundraising reports had more than twelve times as much cash on hand. Barrow also had a huge head start because he was unopposed in the primary, while Anderson wasn't even able to start campaigning until three weeks ago (his primary was July 31st, the primary runoff was August 21st, and due to a razor-thin margin and extended recount, Anderson wasn't officially declared the victor until September 5th). Barrow's been doing some extensive campaign work, with non-stop radio ads everywhere, a ton of town hall meetings in all the tiny towns throughout his district, and some surprisingly high-quality TV ads running in the Augusta and Savannah markets. Also, for whatever reason, Anderson has been refusing to debate Barrow and that's becoming a big news story down there. A bunch of my relatives are the "rural white reliable Republican" voters that were drawn into the 12th district so they could vote Barrow out, but all of them I've talked to about the race are planning to split their ticket and vote for both Romney and Barrow. These people are accustomed to splitting their tickets, anyway; many of the rural white counties added to the district still have plenty of Democratic officials at the local level still winning.

So yeah, fail gerrymander, fail opponent who had a very late start and can't raise money, and an excellent campaign on Barrow's part. It's a unique situation, so Barrow's reelection won't necessarily mean anything for Democratic candidates elsewhere. I'd even argue the seat is "Lean D" at the worst. However, I guess if Anderson does still somehow manage a win, that could be a pretty bad sign for Congressional Democrats elsewhere (it'd mean black turnout is waaay down from 2008 in noncompetitive states, and/or that the "He's a Democrat so he's a socialist just like Obama!" argument works even when the Democratic candidate runs a campaign undeniably superior to his opponent's trainwreck.)

I'm following GA-12 closely as well.  It's partcularly interesting because if Barrow wins, he's basically the only attractive statewide D candidate for 2014-2018.  I could easily see him winning governor and maybe the senate race if the president is an R...

[Donerail]

Maybe FL-18?

[Bacon King]

That district has such a fycking insane history, doesn't it?

Indeed! I especially appreciate the fact that if Barrow manages to hang on this year, the 12th will have been a failomander for all three redistrictings since its creation.

I'm following GA-12 closely as well.  It's partcularly interesting because if Barrow wins, he's basically the only attractive statewide D candidate for 2014-2018.  I could easily see him winning governor and maybe the senate race if the president is an R...

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Burns runs for something statewide in 2014. He'd probably have a better chance unseating either Chambliss or Deal than he'd have holding this district against a credible opponent in a bad midterm election.

[Mr.Phips]

That district has such a fycking insane history, doesn't it?

Indeed! I especially appreciate the fact that if Barrow manages to hang on this year, the 12th will have been a failomander for all three redistrictings since its creation.

I'm following GA-12 closely as well.  It's partcularly interesting because if Barrow wins, he's basically the only attractive statewide D candidate for 2014-2018.  I could easily see him winning governor and maybe the senate race if the president is an R...

I wouldn't be surprised at all if Burns runs for something statewide in 2014. He'd probably have a better chance unseating either Chambliss or Deal than he'd have holding this district against a credible opponent in a bad midterm election.

I dont think 2014 will be that bad of a midterm for Democrats.  Republican already control the House and they will share some of the blame for whatever happens.  Plus, no President has ever had two really bad midterms unless there party gained like a 100 seats when he was reelected.