Kenyan/AU/"others" nearly finished (again) cleansing Somalia of bad guys

[dead0man]

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[Zioneer]

If it actually works this time, then good for Somalia; still think Somaliland should have independence though.

[dead0man]

Agreed.

[SPC]

Good thing Ethiopia Kenya has invaded Somalia to rid the country of Islamists. I'm sure there will be no repercussions and they will not regroup to fight off their occupiers.

[Nhoj]

Good thing Ethiopia Kenya has invaded Somalia to rid the country of Islamists. I'm sure there will be no repercussions and they will not regroup to fight off their occupiers.

There are important historical factors involving Ethiopia to consider when making statements like this, Besides that Al shabab and the ICU arent all the same people, Seeing as some ICU figures have been participating in the TFG for a few years now.

[SPC]

Good thing Ethiopia Kenya has invaded Somalia to rid the country of Islamists. I'm sure there will be no repercussions and they will not regroup to fight off their occupiers.

There are important historical factors involving Ethiopia to consider when making statements like this, Besides that Al shabab and the ICU arent all the same people, Seeing as some ICU figures have been participating in the TFG for a few years now.

Ethiopia invaded Somalia to get rid of the ICU on the basis that they were "Islamists." This led to the even more radical Al-Shabbab rising to power and kicking the Ethiopians out. Undoubtedly Somalians will kick out their Kenyan occupiers as well, and who knows what will fill that vacuum.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kenya doesn't have the same negative reputation in Somalia Ethiopia has (which is putting it very mildly, Ethiopia is probably about as popular in Somalia as Saddam Hussein was in Iraqi Kurdistan...)

[Vosem]

Kenya doesn't have the same negative reputation in Somalia Ethiopia has (which is putting it very mildly, Ethiopia is probably about as popular in Somalia as Saddam Hussein was in Iraqi Kurdistan...)

Yes...there is a large Somali minority in eastern Ethiopia the Ethiopians have not always played nice with.

[SPC]

Kenya doesn't have the same negative reputation in Somalia Ethiopia has (which is putting it very mildly, Ethiopia is probably about as popular in Somalia as Saddam Hussein was in Iraqi Kurdistan...)

Even so, I would be surprised if this alone would be enough for Kenya to succeed where Italy, Britain, the United States, the United Nations, and Ethiopia have failed, not to mention various domestic warlords who have tried to reunite the country.

[WMS]

*blows dust off thread* I think I'll refurbish this fine American thread instead of starting a new imported one.

Per the request of the most gracious ILV, I'm going to do my best to give one and all a Somaliland update. If you have to ask why, you don't know why; if you don't have to ask why, you already know. Or else you don't care. *shrug*

The Short Backstory you Need to Understand what's Going On: Once upon a time (1969-1991) Somalia was ruled by a tyrant named Mohamed Siad Barre. He ruled fiercely, and implemented a communist-influenced statist economy with strong ties to the Soviet Union. All of this ended up being horribly ironic, but this is Somalia. Toward the end of the Cold War, the communism had been diluted with Islamism and they were on good terms with the United States. I said this was ironic. He still ruled fiercely, though - that hadn't changed. There was of course resistance to Barre, much of it clan-based (not tribal - somehow, this entire mess has ALL taken place within only ONE tribe) although it was a while before it amounted to much.

The Bridge to Tie the Backstory in with Somaliland, and why I'm posting in a thread about Somalia proper: The part where the resistance started to amount to something happened in 1988, when the Isaaq clan - the dominant one in what is now Somaliland - rebelled, briefly capturing the main cities. Barre's regime savagely drive them out and then committed massive atrocities on the population, razing Hargeisa, the main city in Somaliland and the second-biggest city in Somalia proper. As you might expect, the Isaaq were very unhappy about this. Anyway, Barre's regime, having savaged the Isaaq in now-Somaliland and the Majerteen a few years ago next door in now-Puntland, went after the Hawiye down south due to disaffection amongst them. Barre himself was a Darod, by the way, which probably explains some of this. That turned out to be one pissed-off clan too many and this triggered a massive uprising against Barre in Somalia. Around this time the U.S., not needing this particular loathsome ally anymore, withdrew their support. The Soviet Union was busy imploding a la the Scorpions' "Wind of Change", so they were not about to intervene for a despised former ally (besides, they would have intervened in the equally in-trouble Ethiopia, where the brutal Derg was losing control). So Barre had no major support, and early in 1991 while everyone was busy paying attention to the Middle East his regime was overthrown and he fled the country. Given what has happened since, his dying peacefully of a heart attack in exile in 1995 is also quite ironic. He even got buried back in Somalia.

Somaliland, not Somalia: The Isaaq, who had participated in the revolution against Barre, went back home and declared independence later that year as Somaliland. The Majerteen, who had also participated in the revolution against Barre, went back home and ran an autonomous state later declared as Puntland. Each of them claimed some of the same territory and they don't like each other at all, with the occasional border war. I suppose this would also be ironic, given the past histories of both of them, but this is Somalia. Everybody else in the country ended up participating in Mad Max: Somalian Edition, whether they wanted to or not (and there were plenty of people in both camps, because this is Somalia). Lots of people died, the U.N. and U.S. intervened, Black Hawk Down happened, the U.N. and U.S. left, and Mad Max: Somalian Edition II went on for many more years.

Meanwhile, in Somaliland: The Isaaq basically spent this time rebuilding from the rubble under one of those "Party of the Revolution" type-governments except with plenty of internal squabbles until the Isaaq clan factions (of course there are clan factions and sub-clans and sub-sub-clans amongst Somalis) came to agreements in 1993 and 1997 (did you think just one conference would make things stick with Somalis?) to agree to set up a basic government under their first Constitution and to really-they-mean-it use it respectively. This did not stop them from fiddling and re-working things and enacting a second Constitution in 2001. The point of all this Constitutional talk was to point out that the basic thrust of things stayed the same throughout: a hybrid tribal-republican government, with ultimately a directly-elected strong President, an upper House of Elders "elected indirectly by local communities for six eight ten -year terms, and a lower House of Representatives directly-elected for five-year terms. Clearly, having a less than directly-elected Upper House is only the sort of thing a savage tribe would do and would never happen in a European or European-inspired nation. *whistles nonchalantly* There are only up to three political parties allowed (UDUB, KULMIYE, and UCID, as it turned out), and parties defined by religion (Somaliland is almost all Muslim, so no problems there) or clan are prohibited. About those clans...Somaliland has three major ones: the dominant Isaaq in the center (most of the clan is in Somaliland), the Dir in the disputed west (only some of them, the rest are in Djibouti and Ethiopia), and the Darod in the really disputed east (they are all over Somalia, but two of the sub-clans are in the Somaliland-Puntland disputed region). Naturally, each political party ended up associated with a separate clan (UDUB ~ Dir; KULMIYE ~ Isaaq; UCID ~ Darod), and it looks like there is at least a little crossover between them, or at least the clans are more mixed than it seems on the surface. Wikipedia claims both KULMIYE and UCID are leftist parties, and doesn't say anything about UDUB. But this seems to be leftism in an Islamic sense, so who knows if this is at all accurate. Hmm, Freedom House says they've relaxed the limit on political parties somewhat, and there's a UCID splinter party called Waddani.

Meanwhile, in Somaliland, Part II: So, Somaliland set up this semi-democratic structure. How has it worked? Well...on the one hand, they have had actual competitive elections and changes in power. On the other hand, there are plenty of authoritarian elements both in government and in society. On yet another hand, the level of violence is way lower than in the rest of Somalia (Puntland usually comes next as being 'kinda safe, sometimes', and the rest of it...Mad Max: Somalian Edition I and II, remember?). On a fourth hand, Somaliland has had recurrent crises of one type or another over the past two decades, and often that has resulted in some repression. On a fifth hand, a lot of that repression seems to have come from periods where the Isaaq was running everything - the Dir's presidential reign has been a dramatic improvement over that of the Isaaq. On a sixth hand, elections keep getting delayed by extending terms of upper and lower houses alike. On a seventh hand...hey, it's actually possible to visit Somaliland if you're careful! Good f'in luck doing that in Somalia.

Somaliland and Company: Now we get to the neighbors. As I mentioned before, there has been border wars between Somaliland and Puntland (to Somaliland's east) over territory, and it's gone back and forth. In 2007 Somaliland scored a big victory by taking a major city in the area, but although they've held on to it they've lost a lot of the rest of the area as local sub-clans (the area is all Darod, remember?) have organized and set up their own semi-autonomous entities in the area, sometimes working with Puntland and sometimes not (i.e., pro-Somalia unionists), but never with Somaliland. I'm sure ILV will declare me a heretic, but I don't think Somaliland has a good claim to a lot of this area...the sub-clans in the area affiliate more with Puntland than Somaliland. Of course, Puntland's claims are just as ridiculous on their western extent. Oh, both Ethiopia and Al-Shabaab (the bad guys mentioned in the OP!) have intervened from time to time in the area, as if it wasn't confusing enough. As for those two forces...the simplified version: Ethiopia is Somaliland's friend, Al-Shabaab is Somaliland's enemy. If you replace "Somaliland" with "Puntland", it's somewhat true as well. If you replace "Somaliland" with "the Isaaq clan", it becomes very true. Ethiopia uses Somaliland as a trading partner for access to the Red Sea, but like everyone else on the planet doesn't officially recognize the Somaliland government. Djibouti is in the 'disputed west' I mentioned, mostly flaring up when there are tensions between the Isaaq and Dir, but both sides have bigger concerns on their other borders. Eritrea is de facto an enemy because they back Al-Shabaab and oppose Ethiopia. The rest of Somalia, regardless of whether it's Chaotic Warlord Coalition #123 or Hideously Fanatical Islamist Faction That Is More Fanatical Than The Last Hideously Fanatical Islamist Faction, considers Somaliland part of Somalia and would inevitably try to bring it back into Somalia by whatever means they think would work. And on that note, not everyone who lives in Somaliland wants to be part of an independent Somaliland and they would prefer to be part of Somalia (although that opinion is forbidden under Somaliland law).

If Somalia ever unifies, this'll probably be settled by 50 rounds of negotiations, 500 bloodcurdling threats, and 5000 under-the-table bribes. Because these are Somalis.

[ilikeverin]

I'M SO GLAD YOU'RE BACK WMS that was very informative!

Yes, n00bz, this is what you were missing back in the day.  Real life political members who know everything about things you know nothing about!

fyi, in case anyone was planning on visiting Somaliland, I have a linguist friend who was thinking about doing fieldwork there, and you have to fly to the UAE, take buses(!) to Nairobi(!!!), then talk to some guy in some sketchy house, who will first turn you down and insist he has no idea what you're talking about (this is apparently in the guidebook), then you have to bribe him and he'll take you to the guy who will drive you up to Hargeysa.

Yep.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I'M SO GLAD YOU'RE BACK WMS that was very informative!

Yes, n00bz, this is what you were missing back in the day.  Real life political members who know everything about things you know nothing about!

fyi, in case anyone was planning on visiting Somaliland, I have a linguist friend who was thinking about doing fieldwork there, and you have to fly to the UAE, take buses(!) to Nairobi(!!!), then talk to some guy in some sketchy house, who will first turn you down and insist he has no idea what you're talking about (this is apparently in the guidebook), then you have to bribe him and he'll take you to the guy who will drive you up to Hargeysa.

Yep.

Wait, what? Why can't you fly to Nairobi?

[Vosem]

I'M SO GLAD YOU'RE BACK WMS that was very informative!

Yes, n00bz, this is what you were missing back in the day.  Real life political members who know everything about things you know nothing about!

fyi, in case anyone was planning on visiting Somaliland, I have a linguist friend who was thinking about doing fieldwork there, and you have to fly to the UAE, take buses(!) to Nairobi(!!!), then talk to some guy in some sketchy house, who will first turn you down and insist he has no idea what you're talking about (this is apparently in the guidebook), then you have to bribe him and he'll take you to the guy who will drive you up to Hargeysa.

Yep.

Wait, what? Why can't you fly to Nairobi?

You can, I know people who have. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobi_International_Airport

[ilikeverin]

I'M SO GLAD YOU'RE BACK WMS that was very informative!

Yes, n00bz, this is what you were missing back in the day.  Real life political members who know everything about things you know nothing about!

fyi, in case anyone was planning on visiting Somaliland, I have a linguist friend who was thinking about doing fieldwork there, and you have to fly to the UAE, take buses(!) to Nairobi(!!!), then talk to some guy in some sketchy house, who will first turn you down and insist he has no idea what you're talking about (this is apparently in the guidebook), then you have to bribe him and he'll take you to the guy who will drive you up to Hargeysa.

Yep.

Wait, what? Why can't you fly to Nairobi?

You can, I know people who have. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nairobi_International_Airport

Something about visa issues; you essentially can't get a visa to Somalia, which means you have to go through the few countries that would let you go without connecting through airports that would be inquiring very much about where exactly you were going.

[Simfan34]

With all due respect, ilikeverin, that just sounds ridiculous. A bus from the UAE to Kenya? A sketchy guy in Nairobi? I have a friend who comes from Somaliland, and I can tell you it's very much possible to fly direct from Addis Ababa, Dubai, or Djibouti to Hargeysa. I had dinner with a man who flies the Addis-Hargeysa route to boot. That doesn't necessarily rule out your scenario, but it might just render it the most superfluous thing in the world.

[ingemann]

Kenya doesn't have the same negative reputation in Somalia Ethiopia has (which is putting it very mildly, Ethiopia is probably about as popular in Somalia as Saddam Hussein was in Iraqi Kurdistan...)

Even so, I would be surprised if this alone would be enough for Kenya to succeed where Italy, Britain, the United States, the United Nations, and Ethiopia have failed, not to mention various domestic warlords who have tried to reunite the country.

Italy and Britain dealt quite easy with the Somalis, the Italian was only thrown out because the British invade, while the British left because Somalia was worthless, not because they were thrown out, as for USA and UN they never tried seriously to keep peace there. as for the Ethiopian invasion it had a limit goal which it reached (keep Somalia in chaos). In fact Somalia isn't Afghanistan, the area is relative easy to conquer and hold, if the invaders has the resources and are willing to sacrifice the necessary number of soldiers. As for such Kenya is both richer than Ethiopia and they have a interest in a peaceful and stable Somalia.

[WMS]

I'M SO GLAD YOU'RE BACK WMS that was very informative!

Yes, n00bz, this is what you were missing back in the day.  Real life political members who know everything about things you know nothing about!

fyi, in case anyone was planning on visiting Somaliland, I have a linguist friend who was thinking about doing fieldwork there, and you have to fly to the UAE, take buses(!) to Nairobi(!!!), then talk to some guy in some sketchy house, who will first turn you down and insist he has no idea what you're talking about (this is apparently in the guidebook), then you have to bribe him and he'll take you to the guy who will drive you up to Hargeysa.

Yep.

Why thank you although I'm only back in small doses and I'm glad someone enjoyed my Somaliland primer!

Heh, one thing I've figured out is that you have to go beyond Wikipedia because some of the lesser-known countries have some really short history sections.

I'll just add that in my hometown paper (Albuquerque Journal woot!) every Sunday they have a few pages from the Wall Street Journal, and one of them had a column earlier this year on a father-son combination which went on a tour of Africa, including Somaliland, so it's not *that* hard to reach. They said Africans are rather friendly people, including in Somaliland.

[dead0man]

Al Shebab is now blowing up people and churches in Kenya.  Kenyans are responding by killing Somalia refugees (who are hiding the terrorists).

[Simfan34]

Kenya doesn't have the same negative reputation in Somalia Ethiopia has (which is putting it very mildly, Ethiopia is probably about as popular in Somalia as Saddam Hussein was in Iraqi Kurdistan...)

...if Saddam Hussein had been around for the past 500 years.

[Zioneer]

Al Shebab is now blowing up people and churches in Kenya.  Kenyans are responding by killing Somalia refugees (who are hiding the terrorists).

Allegedly hiding the terrorists, I'm guessing?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Al Shebab is now blowing up people and churches in Kenya.  Kenyans are responding by killing Somalia refugees (who are hiding the terrorists).

Allegedly hiding the terrorists, I'm guessing?

Probably the only thing that might be in doubt is whether they are willingly hiding the terrorists,