IA-Des Moines Register/Selzer: Obama by 4
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Author Topic: IA-Des Moines Register/Selzer: Obama by 4  (Read 3408 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: September 28, 2012, 11:35:14 PM »
« edited: September 29, 2012, 11:08:15 PM by Tender Branson »

650 likely voters:

49% Obama
45% Romney
  4% Others
  2% Undecided

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/09/29/des-moines-register-iowa-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-4-points
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: September 28, 2012, 11:35:46 PM »

Prediction ?

48-46 Obama
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2012, 11:41:04 PM »

My guess:

Obama - 49
Romney - 46
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #3 on: September 29, 2012, 12:21:15 AM »
« Edited: September 29, 2012, 01:23:19 AM by NVGonzalez »

50-46 Obama.

Edited because I had forgotten to put in the name.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #4 on: September 29, 2012, 12:37:43 AM »

48 - 45 Obama
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #5 on: September 29, 2012, 12:46:04 AM »

48-47 Romney
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Reds4
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« Reply #6 on: September 29, 2012, 01:10:25 AM »

Obama 49
Romney 45
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2012, 09:02:03 AM »

48-41 Obama
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Thomas D
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« Reply #8 on: September 29, 2012, 09:16:16 AM »

47-46 Romney
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #9 on: September 29, 2012, 09:28:46 AM »

Prediction:

Obama - 48%
Romney - 45%
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ajb
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« Reply #10 on: September 29, 2012, 11:26:19 AM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).
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Umengus
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« Reply #11 on: September 29, 2012, 12:32:34 PM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).

no

http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/romney-leads-obama-in-latest-tir-poll

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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #12 on: September 29, 2012, 12:34:38 PM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).

no

http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/romney-leads-obama-in-latest-tir-poll



lol

Continuing your transformation into a self parody?
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Umengus
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« Reply #13 on: September 29, 2012, 12:35:54 PM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).

no

http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/romney-leads-obama-in-latest-tir-poll



lol

Continuing your transformation into a self parody?

just fact.

Problem with facts ?
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ajb
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« Reply #14 on: September 29, 2012, 01:13:01 PM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).

no

http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/romney-leads-obama-in-latest-tir-poll



lol

Continuing your transformation into a self parody?

just fact.

Problem with facts ?

Evidently you do have problems with facts, Umengus. I didn't say she was the only pollster other than Rasmussen to show Romney ahead in Iowa. I said she was just about the only pollster other than Rasmussen to show Romney ahead in Iowa.
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Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #15 on: September 29, 2012, 02:19:08 PM »

Conducted by Selzer & Co.
For reference, her last two polls of IA in 2008 (according to the archive) were:
09/10: 52 Obama-40 McCain
10/31: 54 Obama-37 McCain

The election result: 54-44.

That said, she was also just about the only non-Rasmussen pollster this year to have Romney ahead of Obama in Iowa (Feb. 15, 46-44).

no

http://theiowarepublican.com/2012/romney-leads-obama-in-latest-tir-poll



lol

Continuing your transformation into a self parody?

just fact.

Problem with facts ?

Evidently you do have problems with facts, Umengus. I didn't say she was the only pollster other than Rasmussen to show Romney ahead in Iowa. I said she was just about the only pollster other than Rasmussen to show Romney ahead in Iowa.

A "poll" by The republican has Romney leading by 1. So, if you consider The Republican a real and credible pollster, and not a push-poll, a joke or a fake pollster, you have a big problem.

BTW, before you say something about a bad pollster still being a pollster:

Pollster =/= Joke =/= Fake pollster

So, shut up!
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pa2011
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« Reply #16 on: September 29, 2012, 07:11:07 PM »

Its out. Shows Obama up 4, 49 to 45
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Thomas D
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« Reply #17 on: September 29, 2012, 07:15:32 PM »


DING DING DING Smiley
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Reds4
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« Reply #18 on: September 29, 2012, 07:23:36 PM »

Yeah, I told you guys it was going to be 49-45... knew it all along.. lol... right! (o:

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: September 29, 2012, 07:27:23 PM »

The link:

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2012/09/29/des-moines-register-iowa-poll-obama-leads-romney-by-4-points/article?nclick_check=1
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #20 on: September 29, 2012, 07:59:49 PM »

Perfectly content with that number, even if undecideds break absurdly in Romney's favor (which won't happen, but seems to be the fantasy on the Right), Obama still wins as long as he's hovering near 50.
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dirks
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« Reply #21 on: September 29, 2012, 08:33:20 PM »

Obama is ahead here...not "comfortably", but still ahead. Strange...because I would think seeing Romney within this margin in Iowa would point to him doing better in other midwest states but that's not the case. Same story with NH...but that's kind of an oddball state to begin with

Iowa could be like the NJ of 2000. I remember the Bush team making a late play on it supposedly from good stretch run internals...but instead it broke heavily for Gore and bush got massacred in the middle class suburbs
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #22 on: September 29, 2012, 11:09:25 PM »
« Edited: September 30, 2012, 03:05:27 AM by Tender Branson »

Entered to the database.

In the database, Iowa is now in the Obama column and Obama has reached his highest EV count so far. Only NH and SC remain as tossup.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #23 on: September 30, 2012, 02:59:53 AM »

Obama is ahead here...not "comfortably", but still ahead. Strange...because I would think seeing Romney within this margin in Iowa would point to him doing better in other midwest states but that's not the case. Same story with NH...but that's kind of an oddball state to begin with

Well, Romney is doing better than McCain in most of the midwest at the moment (exceptions being Ohio, Minnesota and maybe Nebraska). It's just not good enough.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #24 on: September 30, 2012, 03:27:49 AM »

Full results:

http://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/444483/sept-30-2012-iowa-poll-results.pdf

Favorable Ratings:

54-43 Obama
46-41 Ryan
45-45 Biden
44-51 Romney

Obama Approval Rating: 51-47
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