War of the Thai Succession?

[Simfan34]

I've been doing some reading, and it seems that the succession to the throne of Thailand is rather... interesting. The crown prince, Wachiralongkon, is a rather unsavoury character, a rather dissolute old man (he's 60) with a penchant for mistresses, fast cars, expensive teas, and failed marriage. He's also said to have been fairly close to deposed prime minister Thaksin, whose "red-shirt" faction currently seems ascendant with his sister, Yingluck, the prime minister; but they and Wachiralongkon had a falling out some years ago.

Wachiralongkon is on his third marriage, and his earlier issue (including four sons) have been subject to a virtual damnatio memorae, living in exile with their rights to the succession being removed. Much of the loyalty to the crown is personal, belonging to King Phumiphon Adunyadet due to his charitable efforts, longevity, personal travails, intervening to preserve democracy, etc. Wachiralongkon would not command that kind of respect.

On other hand, his sister, Sirinthon, is deeply revered by many Thais, much in the manner of her father, and is thoroughly uncontroversial, and is said to have links to the conservative military and commercial establishments that generally fall in line with the hardline royalist "yellow-shirts".

Now, in Thailand, the Privy Council has the responsibility of declaring the new monarch when the current monarch has died, although this has usually been a formality. Several members of the privy council have expressed their distaste for the crown prince in private, and thanks to wikileaks, we know of that. The rest of the council comes from the same sort of conservative background.

What's to say that if the king were to die in the near future (he's fairly sickly), the Privy Council wouldn't proclaim Sirinthon Queen, passing over Wachiralongkon? There certainly have been rumours to that effect. Now, what if in such a scenario, Wachiralongkon were to contest the proclamation and deem himself the rightful king? In such a case things would in all likelihood rapidly become political, with the yellow-shirts and the royalist forces siding with the Sirinthon and the Privy Council, while Thaksin faction and the redshirts siding with Wachiralongkon in response, with the two mending their wounds, and Prime Minister Yingluck siding with the Wachiralongkon camp as well?

What would happen? A coup certainly seems in order, but might this degenerate into a conflict- a presumable "War of the Thai Succession"?

[opebo]

It is very likely this could lead to a civil war, SImfan, which is the big reason we all fear the end of the current beneficent reign.  That, and the son is thought to be somewhat anti-foreigner (as is Thaksin, obviously).

The best we could hope for would be the old guard having one more trick up their sleeve, and getting rid of the bad seed and the awful red/thaksinites with one beautiful (and probably quite popular) coup.  I dream of seeing that fat lady on the throne and good Abbhisit kneeling before her, being appointed rather than elected.  And somewhere in the background, a certain General P**m, pushing 100, still pulling the strings.  Just my little daydream.

[Simfan34]

Also, the yellow-shirts would be come purple-shirts, wouldn't they?

[opebo]

Also, the yellow-shirts would be come purple-shirts, wouldn't they?

Um..not sure what that means.  The royal colour here is yellow (though they have several other colours for special purposes).

[Simfan34]

Also, the yellow-shirts would be come purple-shirts, wouldn't they?

Um..not sure what that means.  The royal colour here is yellow (though they have several other colours for special purposes).

Isn't Yellow the Royal Colour because it's the colour of the day the king was born? I read that purple was the Colour of the day Sirinthon was born, so wouldn't the royal colour become purple?