Politico: Sign of trouble for GOP in Arizona Senate race?

[Incipimus iterum]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/81793.html
comments

[Barnes]

I think this is just a confirmation of what we've been saying for a while. But it's nice to see that the Republicans are starting to admit the truth. I'd still say this will eventually go to Flake, unfortunately.

[Brittain33]

I'll collapse from shock if Flake doesn't win by at least 5 points, and more likely 10, "sign of trouble" and a Democratic wave notwithstanding. Jon Kyl won by 10 points in 2006 against a well-funded opponent.

[greenforest32]

I'll collapse from shock if Flake doesn't win by at least 5 points, and more likely 10, "sign of trouble" and a Democratic wave notwithstanding. Jon Kyl won by 10 points in 2006 against a well-funded opponent.

I agree the last 5-8 points will be hard for Carmona to get but I would consider:

* It's an open seat vs an incumbent running for reelection
* Six years of demographic shifts in a state heading towards minority-majority status
* Republicans are likely to do worse with Hispanics (SB1070, Romney, etc)
* Midterm (2006) vs presidential election year (2012) turnout differences
* It's more likely for Carmona to outperform Obama than the reverse and Arizona could trend D compared to 2008

[Talleyrand]

I'll collapse from shock if Flake doesn't win by at least 5 points, and more likely 10, "sign of trouble" and a Democratic wave notwithstanding. Jon Kyl won by 10 points in 2006 against a well-funded opponent.

I agree the last 5-8 points will be hard for Carmona to get but I would consider:

* It's an open seat vs an incumbent running for reelection
* Six years of demographic shifts in a state heading towards minority-majority status
* Republicans are likely to do worse with Hispanics (SB1070, Romney, etc)
* Midterm (2006) vs presidential election year (2012) turnout differences
* It's more likely for Carmona to outperform Obama than the reverse and Arizona could trend D compared to 2008

These are my thoughts exactly. I think Carmona will keep it in the single digits, but he'll have a very tough time getting the last several % points.

[Mister Twister]

If there is one state where the Republicans/Tea Party have really overreached, it is Arizona. The GOP's reckoning will soon come

[mondale84]

I don't think this is within reach. I wouldn't be surprised if Carmona underperformed Obama.