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Author Topic: PPP -- Ohio Obama 49 Romney 45  (Read 1224 times)
pa2011
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« on: September 30, 2012, 06:24:43 pm »
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No link yet. PPP's previous Ohio poll had it Obama 50 Romney 45, so essentially stable.
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #1 on: September 30, 2012, 07:33:12 pm »
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In before republicans say these are 'good news' for Romney.
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
NVGonzalez
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« Reply #2 on: September 30, 2012, 07:50:57 pm »
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It gives a glimmer of hope for Romney, I guess.
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Bernie would probably win Vermont if Obama were deemed to have more than 272 evs in the vag.
LiberalJunkie
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2012, 07:57:19 pm »
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And this is before the debates where Romney will fail in horribly....poor mittens...
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Devils30
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« Reply #4 on: September 30, 2012, 07:59:26 pm »
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Obama isnt winning it by 10, this is more realistic.
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Vosem
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« Reply #5 on: September 30, 2012, 08:00:32 pm »
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Pretty bad news for Romney. I suppose someone who feels like spinning can point out the one-point improvement and the fact that some recent polls have had particularly outlandish, near double-digit margins (though those were always obvious outliers), and PPP having a Democratic tilt. These particular numbers strike me as altogether correct, I'm afraid.
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I apologize for being so adamantly right.
The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: September 30, 2012, 08:01:00 pm »
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Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.
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Einzige is a poltroon who cowardly turns down duel challenges he should be honor-bound to accept. The Code Duello authorizes you to mock and belittle such a pathetic honorless scoundrel.
Torie
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« Reply #7 on: September 30, 2012, 08:02:13 pm »
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I wonder how PPP waives its wand to correct into a true random sample. I want a list!

Anyway, this is like a lifeboat baby.  Now some killjoy will start chatting about margin of error. Stop it!  
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2012, 08:06:01 pm »
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Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.

Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2012, 08:08:04 pm by Torie »Logged

Mister Twister
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« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2012, 08:10:51 pm »
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Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.

Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.

Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.
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A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2012, 08:16:49 pm »
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Obama not at 50%? Safe R.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2012, 08:17:58 pm »
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For those who like to play the party id game, the party id on this poll is three points more Republican than 2008.
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Torie
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2012, 08:19:27 pm »
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Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.

Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.

Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.

Do you always pull your punches this way?  Tongue  Moving right along, do we understand what the word "trend" means?  Just asking.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2012, 08:21:23 pm by Torie »Logged

Mister Twister
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« Reply #13 on: September 30, 2012, 08:26:33 pm »
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Bad days for Romney when a poll that shows him down 4 in a must win state is good news.

Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby. That's like what it wouuld be to the Japanese military regime if the USA dropped its entire inventory of two atom bombs on Japan, and both failed to ignite.

Are you drunk? This post is a load of nonsensical drivel.

Do you always pull your punches this way?  Tongue  Moving right along, do we understand what the word "trend" means?  Just asking.

Well, the last PPP poll in OH from 3 weeks ago had Obama up by 5. This one has him up by 4. I wouldn't call that a trend so much as statistical noise but we are all entitled to our own views about the current state of the race, I suppose.
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Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #14 on: September 30, 2012, 09:20:02 pm »
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For those who like to play the party id game, the party id on this poll is three points more Republican than 2008.

That seems about right. Enthusiasm is not at 2008 levels and never will be. Obama just isn't going to be able to get the unlikely voters out again to the same extent.

Obama's definitely leading in Ohio at this point, so this poll seems reasonable enough.
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MorningInAmerica
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« Reply #15 on: September 30, 2012, 09:35:49 pm »
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From Tom Jensen (PPP):
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It's a mistake to think based on recent polling in Ohio that the race there is over. Obama is not popular in the state, with 48% of voters approving of him to 49% who disapprove. Among voters who remain undecided there just 13% think he's doing a good job to 65% who give him poor marks.

So Obama's job rating with Ohio undecideds is 13/65%. You can bet, at that rate, at least 65% of undecideds would break to Romney (if you buy the PPP internals of couse).

Also, if the PPP numbers were reweighted to match 2008 CNN Ohio exit polling on partisan identification, Obama would be ahead 49-43%. http://partisanid.blogspot.com/2012/09/ppp-shows-tightening-in-ohio-race-obama.html

It is not normal for a campaign to cheer being four points behind in a battleground state, but after the week of awful Ohio polls Romney just had, I'm sure they're happy with this one.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2012, 09:50:23 pm by MorningInAmerica »Logged

"...the media helped tip the scales. I didn't think the coverage in 2008 was especially fair..."

- Jake Tapper, Senior White House Correspondent for ABC News

"The media is very susceptible to doing what the Obama campaign wants."

 - Mark Halperin, author of 2008's 'Game Change.'
pa2011
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« Reply #16 on: September 30, 2012, 09:41:22 pm »
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Not sure why everyone assumes that there is going to be this big drop off in Democratic participation while GOP enthusiasm remains high. Frankly, based on what I see in my daily travels, it seems to me the biggest risk of poor turnout is among marginal Republican white,  both blue-collar and middle manager type, middle-aged men. They are the type of voters who overwhelmingly supported Bush in 00 and '04 and likely McCain, because they like a muscular foreign policy, etc.

Anyway, seems this time many  are increasingly disallusioned with Romney and hearing them say things like, they don't like either candidate and may not vote. Just something to consider, based only on my personal conservations.
« Last Edit: September 30, 2012, 09:47:44 pm by pa2011 »Logged
Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #17 on: September 30, 2012, 09:44:45 pm »
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Its been at the core of their electoral calculations for the last 2 years - they need Dem participation down and hope the 2010 anger stays in place...

FTR, I never expected Obama to win OH by 8+ this poll is much closer to the result I expect.
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« Reply #18 on: September 30, 2012, 09:47:09 pm »
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Work to be done.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - Charles de Gaulle



Is it excessive to hold a politician's feet to the fire for giving his base the run around at every turn?
Tender Branson
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« Reply #19 on: October 01, 2012, 12:05:05 am »

A) Still 2008-like.

B) Another good poll for Obama in the mix of other good polls.

C) I'd start to worry if there are 3 polls in a row that show Romney in a tie.
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« Reply #20 on: October 01, 2012, 05:06:31 am »
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Putting aside the issue of whether or not the poll is some evil Dem plot to make Mittens look more viable than he is at the moment (sort of like a counterspy, counterspy spy on the counterspy in an overly complex spy novel), it's the trend baby. But a 4 point lead means Ohio is trending Dem hardly at all, maybe just a tad to dead even PVI. That's lifeboat country baby.

This trend is caused entirely by the racist videa, Torie, and will end in Romney taking Ohio by election day.  Your party can win on racism - it is the proven strategy for the GOP.
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: October 01, 2012, 05:08:09 am »
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I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...
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opebo
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« Reply #22 on: October 01, 2012, 05:09:33 am »
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I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...

I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut.  I'm from Missouri after all.
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Senator-elect Polnut
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« Reply #23 on: October 01, 2012, 05:13:51 am »
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I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...

I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut.  I'm from Missouri after all.

Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the premise, I just disagree with your conclusion.
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opebo
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« Reply #24 on: October 01, 2012, 05:21:48 am »
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I'm happy to welcome the return of pessimistic opebo...

I understand how little it takes to re-ignite the latent fires of hatred, Polnut.  I'm from Missouri after all.

Don't get me wrong, I don't disagree with the premise, I just disagree with your conclusion.

Well, don't get ME wrong either, I admit even in a high-level outburst of racist frenzy, there is still a possible route to victory for Obama - it depends either on either Iowans or Wisconsans being less racist than Ohioans, which I think they are, or on Virginia being more demographically changed than I for one perceive it to yet be:







Obviously this is like threading the needle, because Colorado is also incredibly close.. just not much effectd by anti-black racism.
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