Interesting how many people seem to writing Scott Brown off

[sg0508]

I admit, I don''t think in the end he's going to win given that it's a presidential year and that Obama's coattails will probably squeeze him out, but from all the MA Senate poll/general threads we've read, it seems like most are already conceding that the race is over.

What gives me some hope that Brown could pull through (I would split-ticket if I lived in MA) is that he's consistently polling in the upper 40s, which is good news.  Low to mid 40s would be bad news and would leave him more susceptible to the "democrats coming home" effect.

Again, I don't think he's going to win in the end and it's a shame because he's one of those people in Washington that could actually help break the gridlock, but it seems like we're basically writing his chances off.  Uphill battle? No doubt, but stranger things have happened. 

Yes, we've seen politicians of the minority party in a state be thrown out before with high approval ratings (Sen. Chafee of RI, Gov. Richards of TX), but let's not kill Scott Brown off yet.

[sg0508]

It also seems to feel like the national GOP is writing him off too, but perhaps that's because of where he's from.

[Brittain33]

I'm not sure how Brown helps break the gridlock given that he campaigned originally as #41 to cause a filibuster. If he's elected to a 6-year term, he'll side with the Dems about as much as his blue-state colleagues Mark Kirk, Susan Collins, and Ron Johnson... only occasionally on items that matter, or when there isn't enough of a coalition to break a filibuster by his allies.

Meanwhile, he's a big ally of the finance industry, and they have enough influence on the government as it is.

[Vosem]

I don't see how Warren is more than a 3:2 or 2:1 favorite to be honest, and I don't know who's writing him off.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think Brown would be doing better with practically anyone else at the top of the ticket.  He could have benefited from either an ideologue he could run away from to show he's not that kind of Republican or from someone who would be doing better now.  More so than other GOP candidates, Brown suffers from Romney doing poorly because of the inevitable in-state comparisons of him to ex-Governor Romney.

[Skill and Chance]

I think Brown would be doing better with practically anyone else at the top of the ticket.  He could have benefited from either an ideologue he could run away from to show he's not that kind of Republican or from someone who would be doing better now.  More so than other GOP candidates, Brown suffers from Romney doing poorly because of the inevitable in-state comparisons of him to ex-Governor Romney.

I agree, but I think it's more that Brown needs an environment where undecided Dems aren't thinking about senate control on election day.  Obviously he would coast in a 60/40 Romney landslide where MA is in play, but I think he would also be better off if Obama was running away with it 60/40 because the Dem senate majority would be a foregone conclusion and Brown could talk constantly of how much he agrees with Obama.

A close election leaning toward Obama is literally the worst possible presidential scenario for him.

[Ogre Mage]

Given how over-the-top Brown's (and his staff's) personal attacks on Warren's heritage have been, I doubt you'll be seeing him with high personal approval ratings much longer.

It's also very convenient to support a "break the gridlock" senator (not that I agree Brown will do this) when it comes out of the hide of the opposing party.  The truth is Republicans are supporting Brown because having a Republican senator from MA is a gift -- but it is a gift which I don't think will be going on for much longer.

[RedPrometheus]

I'm very surprised about Brown's attacks against Warren's heritage - there is a significant risk of them backfiring.

The only reason that could be explained by is that he is slipping and getting desperate which could cause him to slip further. But I still believe he can win the election.

[morgieb]

I can see where you're coming from, but I still think Warren wins in the end. Brown's campaign does not seem confident at all, and it is Massachusetts.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I'm not sure how Brown helps break the gridlock given that he campaigned originally as #41 to cause a filibuster. If he's elected to a 6-year term, he'll side with the Dems about as much as his blue-state colleagues Mark Kirk, Susan Collins, and Ron Johnson... only occasionally on items that matter, or when there isn't enough of a coalition to break a filibuster by his allies.

Meanwhile, he's a big ally of the finance industry, and they have enough influence on the government as it is.

Wisconsin's not a blue state, it's a swing state.  Gore only carried it by about 5,000 votes and Kerry only took it by about 11,000 votes.  And so many people split their tickets that coattail effects are largely a myth.  I think he will win, but only because he has had an edge for most of the campaign and Warren is such a flawed candidate.