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| | |-+  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Tender Branson, Sheriff Buford TX Justice)
| | | |-+  TX-Texas Lyceum: Romney close to 60
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Author Topic: TX-Texas Lyceum: Romney close to 60  (Read 393 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: October 02, 2012, 12:51:03 pm »

58-39 Romney

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2012/10/texas-poll-finds-romney-ahead-of-obama-perry-job-approval-ratings-down.html/
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Snowstalker
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« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2012, 12:51:51 pm »
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TX will probably be 56-42 or something.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2012, 01:26:02 pm »
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Now something like this would definitely help to explain why the race remains somewhat close nationally.
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mondale84
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« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2012, 02:12:33 pm »
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Not buying this especially with Obama at 45% approval.
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« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2012, 05:12:44 pm »
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Now something like this would definitely help to explain why the race remains somewhat close nationally.
No it doesn't. The margin in TX will negate about half of Obama's CA lead. And on top of that Obama will have large leads in NY and IL and smaller leads in PA, MI and OH. With FL a wash, Romney is far behind in the big states. Mid sized states aren't much better for the GOP. The Dems will have very strong numbers in MA, NJ, MD, and WA. And Obama will have more modest leads in MN, WI and VA. NC and MO will be narrow contests that won't affect the popular vote much. Romney will have leads in IN, AZ, TN, and GA, but the polls out of these states suggest his wins here won't be huge landslides. That leaves about a fifth of the country in states with less than 10 electoral votes. And Romney is likely to have large numerical margins in AL, LA, KY, and OK, and somewhat less so in SC which all put together have a population size much smaller than IL+NY. There just aren't enough people in the remaining states to make that much of a difference after Obama's dominance in the larger states, especially when Obama has his own remaining small but not tiny states, CT and OR, and CO will also provide a small Obama win. States with 6 or fewer EVs are about 10% of the population. Obama wins in DC, VT, HI, DE, RI, NM, NH, ME, NV, and IA will come close to cancelling out Romney's wins in UT, MS, AR, KS, WV, NE, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, and AK. And that's the whole country.
« Last Edit: October 02, 2012, 05:15:57 pm by memphis »Logged

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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2012, 07:14:06 am »
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Now something like this would definitely help to explain why the race remains somewhat close nationally.
No it doesn't. The margin in TX will negate about half of Obama's CA lead. And on top of that Obama will have large leads in NY and IL and smaller leads in PA, MI and OH. With FL a wash, Romney is far behind in the big states. Mid sized states aren't much better for the GOP. The Dems will have very strong numbers in MA, NJ, MD, and WA. And Obama will have more modest leads in MN, WI and VA. NC and MO will be narrow contests that won't affect the popular vote much. Romney will have leads in IN, AZ, TN, and GA, but the polls out of these states suggest his wins here won't be huge landslides. That leaves about a fifth of the country in states with less than 10 electoral votes. And Romney is likely to have large numerical margins in AL, LA, KY, and OK, and somewhat less so in SC which all put together have a population size much smaller than IL+NY. There just aren't enough people in the remaining states to make that much of a difference after Obama's dominance in the larger states, especially when Obama has his own remaining small but not tiny states, CT and OR, and CO will also provide a small Obama win. States with 6 or fewer EVs are about 10% of the population. Obama wins in DC, VT, HI, DE, RI, NM, NH, ME, NV, and IA will come close to cancelling out Romney's wins in UT, MS, AR, KS, WV, NE, ND, SD, MT, WY, ID, and AK. And that's the whole country.

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