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Author Topic: Rasmussen Gloats About His Accuracy  (Read 3831 times)
ATFFL
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« on: January 29, 2005, 04:39:14 pm »
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Election Results Highlight Accuracy of Rasmussen Reports

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The final, certified, results of Election 2004 show that President George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while Senator John Kerry earned 48.3%. Those figures are very close to the final Rasmussen Reports Daily Tracking Poll. We projected the President would win 50.2% to 48.5%.

This confirms Matthew Dowd's assessment that "Scott's polling data was dead on this election. Both nationally and at the state level, his numbers were hard to beat." Dowd was Chief Strategist for Bush-Cheney '04.

In addition to our national polling, Rasmussen Reports projected 24 statewide results during the final weekend of Election 2004 without a single miscall.

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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #1 on: January 29, 2005, 06:13:15 pm »
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Rasmussen did do very very well this year.
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: January 29, 2005, 06:52:08 pm »
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Yes, he had a spectacular year.  Whatever his changes in methodology were from 2000, they were obviously the right changes.

Rasmussen was as good this year as Zogby was bad.  Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.
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King
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« Reply #3 on: January 29, 2005, 08:39:10 pm »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup
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« Reply #4 on: January 30, 2005, 03:21:52 am »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup

Gallup did pretty badly.
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« Reply #5 on: January 30, 2005, 05:26:33 am »
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Will Rasmussen change his party id? CNN said that was 37/37/26 at the election day. I think that Rasmussen uses 39/35/26. Hence...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Umengus
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« Reply #6 on: January 30, 2005, 05:29:10 am »
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Will Rasmussen change his party id? CNN said that was 37/37/26 at the election day. I think that Rasmussen uses 39/35/26. Hence...
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
ATFFL
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« Reply #7 on: January 30, 2005, 10:48:56 am »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup

Gallup did pretty badly.

Only at the state level.  Their national poll, before they did a ridiculous split of the undecided vote, was spot on the difference.  Their state polls were also nowhere near as bad as Zogby's.  And, unlike Zogby, they admitted there was a problem and are looking into fixing it.  Zogby was gloating about his accuracy for a while.

Scott did nail it and can look forward to some sweet, sweet media buys.  Hopefully Zogby loses all his contracts and people stop listening to him. 

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Umengus
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« Reply #8 on: February 01, 2005, 06:36:52 am »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup

Gallup did pretty badly.

Only at the state level. Their national poll, before they did a ridiculous split of the undecided vote, was spot on the difference. Their state polls were also nowhere near as bad as Zogby's. And, unlike Zogby, they admitted there was a problem and are looking into fixing it. Zogby was gloating about his accuracy for a while.

Scott did nail it and can look forward to some sweet, sweet media buys. Hopefully Zogby loses all his contracts and people stop listening to him.



sorry but I disagree. You can not evaluate a poll company only with her last poll. During the campaign, Gallup gave lots of incorrect results because their polls were biaised (too many republicans or too many democrats,...). And well, the Gallup states polls were... awful.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Passing Through a Screen Door
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« Reply #9 on: February 02, 2005, 01:15:13 pm »
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I kind of suspect that Rasmussen just got lucky, but oh well, we'll see in the future.
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01/05/2004-01/10/2014
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« Reply #10 on: February 02, 2005, 08:57:03 pm »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup

Gallup did pretty badly.

Only at the state level. Their national poll, before they did a ridiculous split of the undecided vote, was spot on the difference. Their state polls were also nowhere near as bad as Zogby's. And, unlike Zogby, they admitted there was a problem and are looking into fixing it. Zogby was gloating about his accuracy for a while.

Scott did nail it and can look forward to some sweet, sweet media buys. Hopefully Zogby loses all his contracts and people stop listening to him.



Nothing, other than a few poorly done local polls, was as bad as Zogby.

Gallup did horribly at the state level, but did freakishly well at anticipating trends in states. When Gallup showed Bush +10 in Ohio, the next week, Ohio swung towards Bush. When Gallup showed Kerry +10 there, it swung towards Kerry the next week.

The national poll went a little extreme at times, too, and showed similar weird trending to the state polls, but was overall OK.

Still, Gallup needs to look at some of their sampling (I think they once had a poll where a third of people made $75,000+ or something of that sort). I forget what areas they did poorly in at this point - it's been a while. Maybe Vorlon remembers.
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ATFFL
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« Reply #11 on: February 02, 2005, 09:02:47 pm »
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Zogby was exposed as the partisan hack that he is.

Woo! I remember when liberals were saying to watch the "independent" polls at Zogby Interactive and pay no attention to the "partisan hacks" at Gallup

Gallup did pretty badly.

Only at the state level.  Their national poll, before they did a ridiculous split of the undecided vote, was spot on the difference.  Their state polls were also nowhere near as bad as Zogby's.  And, unlike Zogby, they admitted there was a problem and are looking into fixing it.  Zogby was gloating about his accuracy for a while.

Scott did nail it and can look forward to some sweet, sweet media buys.  Hopefully Zogby loses all his contracts and people stop listening to him. 



Nothing, other than a few poorly done local polls, was as bad as Zogby.

Gallup did horribly at the state level, but did freakishly well at anticipating trends in states. When Gallup showed Bush +10 in Ohio, the next week, Ohio swung towards Bush. When Gallup showed Kerry +10 there, it swung towards Kerry the next week.

The national poll went a little extreme at times, too, and showed similar weird trending to the state polls, but was overall OK.

Still, Gallup needs to look at some of their sampling (I think they once had a poll where a third of people made $75,000+ or something of that sort). I forget what areas they did poorly in at this point - it's been a while. Maybe Vorlon remembers.

And to Gallup's credit they are doing exactly that.

Rasmussen did the same 4 years ago when he went kablooey.

Zogby gloats about his accuracy.
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agcatter
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« Reply #12 on: February 02, 2005, 10:00:47 pm »
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Don't expect that jackass hack Zogby to change a thing.  He's a tool.
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