NBC/Marist: Romney closes in on FL & VA but Ohio is an Obama blowout.

[Eraserhead]

Ohio:

Obama 51% (+1)
Romney 43% (nc)

Florida:

Obama 47% (-2)
Romney 46% (+1)

Virginia:

Obama 48% (-1)
Romney 46% (+1)


http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/10/03/14194770-nbcwsj-poll-obama-holds-lead-in-ohio-statistical-tie-in-va-fla?lite?ocid=twitter

The changes are from their last poll of these states (that they had earlier this month).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

FL/VA were always going to be close...

[J. J.]

I'm not thrilled with Marist, but NC, FL, are probably closer.

[Eraserhead]

I guess people in Ohio are putting their economic survival ahead of concerns about the Obamaphone lady. Sorry Naso.

[LiberalJunkie]

Ohio is lost...

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

OH is done and has been for a few weeks.

[tmthforu94]

Getting better - a lot of time left. Obama could win in a blowout, or Romney could win. I still think, considering the nature of Ohio, it's too early to say it's "lost" for Romney.

[Earthling]

The Romney campaign spend almost an entire week in Ohio and they managed to lose a point. That is very bad news for them.

Virginia and Florida are very good news for him. Maybe it's wiser to spend more time there.

[Yank2133]

Getting better - a lot of time left. Obama could win in a blowout, or Romney could win. I still think, considering the nature of Ohio, it's too early to say it's "lost" for Romney.

Lets not kid ourselves, Romney spent nearly a week there and lost a point.

He is done in Ohio.

[dirks]

Not gonna shovel dirt on Romney in Ohio just yet...but if he's not at the most 4 down by say...Oct 17 then it's pretty much lost.

He shouldn't be pulling out or shifting resources from the state yet. Even if it is an 8 pt deficit.

[Brittain33]

Romney has lost Ohio and the only reason to pretend otherwise is because if he's lost Ohio, he has conclusively lost the election and we have to sit around awkwardly for the next five weeks waiting for that day.

Right now we're seeing whether Obama wins narrowly like 2004 or sizably like 2008. That's all.

[Brittain33]

Not gonna shovel dirt on Romney in Ohio just yet...but if he's not at the most 4 down by say...Oct 17 then it's pretty much lost.

He shouldn't be pulling out or shifting resources from the state yet. Even if it is an 8 pt deficit.

Nope, he should continue to campaign in Ohio and hope for something currently unthinkable to give him an opening. He's got no other choice and no better way to spend his time.

[tmthforu94]

The Road to 270 goes straight through Ohio - With Wisconsin looking likely for President Obama, Ohio is a must-win. Romney would be foolish to give up on it and focus more on VA and FL.

[Likely Voter]

Is there a way for Team Romney to cut back in OH without looking like they are giving up? They are spending $3.7M there this week on TV. If they continue to increase their spend there as they have been doing they could end up spending $25M or more between now and the election. If the national race comes down to a 1% margin, Romney's path is likely through NV, IA, CO, NC, VA, and FL. Maybe he should move some of that money to those states.

[ChrisFromNJ]

The polls tell us right now that the race in Ohio isn't close. But that can change in 5 weeks. Given the historical swing state nature of the state, and that Romney cannot win the White House without it, President Obama can't take this state for granted. I don't care if the polls say that Obama is 8 points up on Election Eve - he can't take his eye of the ball in this state. And Romney would be foolish to give up on the state. It's his path to the White House. Without Ohio, he has no chance.

[Eraserhead]

Romney can win without Ohio (and Wisconsin). It's just incredibly difficult.

[Brittain33]

The polls tell us right now that the race in Ohio isn't close. But that can change in 5 weeks.

It can. But historically, there's no precedent for doing so. In any case, I agree that there's no point in either Obama or Romney leaving the state, they have to keep up the work needed.

[ajb]

In a way, Ohio is to Romney as Pennsylvania was to McCain -- a state it didn't really honestly look like they could win, but one they needed to compete in to maintain the case at the national level that they were still in it to win it.

[dspNY]

We Ask America was supposed to do an Ohio poll (and cross-publish it with a private client) but the client retracted their permission...

My guess is that the private client was a Romney ally that saw their man getting beaten pretty badly in Ohio

http://weaskamerica.com/2012/10/02/horse-races/

[opebo]

If the national race comes down to a 1% margin, Romney's path is likely through NV, IA, CO, NC, VA, and FL. Maybe he should move some of that money to those states.

Ohio is more likely to go to Romney than Nevada.

[RJ]

I'm not thrilled with Marist, but NC, FL, are probably closer.

Is that closer than these polls indicate or closer in general, meaning these polls are relatively accurate?

[Lief 🗽]

It's really hilarious that Romney spent a week barnstorming the state and Obama gained a point as a result.

[Nhoj]

It's really hilarious that Romney spent a week barnstorming the state and Obama gained a point as a result.

Isnt that a pattern we saw in the primaries as well?

[J. J.]

In a way, Ohio is to Romney as Pennsylvania was to McCain -- a state it didn't really honestly look like they could win, but one they needed to compete in to maintain the case at the national level that they were still in it to win it.

The difference is, Romney needs OH; McCain could have without PA, easily.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

I don't think Obama is that far ahead in Ohio, and even then, that's not a blowout.