Women in the Senate..

[Vern]

How many women do you think will be in the Senate after the election this year?

[Miles]

The ceiling would probably be 24 with wins by: Warren, McMahon, Baldwin, Heitkamp, Fischer, Berkley and Hirono.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

21 with wins by McCaskill, Warren, Baldwin and Fischer

[Talleyrand]

The ceiling would probably be 24 with wins by: Warren, McMahon, Baldwin, Heitkamp, Fischer, Berkley and Hirono.

No. Currently, there are seventeen female senators, two of whom are retiring, so we start off with a baseline of fifteen, assuming all incumbents are reelected. So even if all seven win along with McCaskill, it would be 22.

The scenario I currently project is a victory for Warren, Baldwin, Fischer, Hirono, and McCaskill, but losses for Berkley, Heitkamp, and McMahon. That would mean a total of 19 women in the Senate, a net gain of 2.

[BM]

Incumbents ranked by likelihood of leaving:

1. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) - retiring, 0% chance of staying
2. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) - retiring, 0% chance of staying
2. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) - slight favorite now, 65% chance of staying (conservative estimate)
3. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) - 90% safe barring world crisis
4. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) - 95% safe barring world crisis
5. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) - 100% safe
6. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) - 100% safe
7. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) - 100% safe

The latter two have female challengers for what it's worth. Sad to see Hutchison and Snowe go because they aren't completely despicable Republicans, but everyone else is the favorite in their respective races. Still a net of -2 or -3 for incumbents. If Angus King stayed out and Sarah Steelman won the primary it'd be a different story.


Newcomers ranked by likelihood of winning:

1. Mazie Hirono (D-HI) - just about a 100% lock
2. Deb Fischer (R-NE) - ditto
3. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) - clearly the favorite now and I expect this trend to continue
4. Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) - also the new favorite but the obvious differences between WI and MA will still make this a slightly tougher road for her than Warren
5. Shelley Berkley (D-NV) - A generally terrible candidate and person but NV is trending Democratic and polls are too close for comfort for Heller
6. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND) - A very strong candidate against a terrible one, but I expect a close and disappointing loss given the fact that its presidential year.
6. Linda McMahon (R-CT) - Despite a fleeting wave of good fortune I don't see her pulling this one out in the end. Could be within 10 points but she'll have a tough time gaining more than that.
7. Cynthia Dill (D-ME) - As long as King stays in he'll remain the favorite despite the other two candidates closing the gap. If one of the major parties wins in an upset, it likely won't be her.
8. Heather Wilson (R-NM) - fail of a candidate; seems to be going nowhere
9. Linda Lingle (R-HI) - If Hirono was plagued by scandals or gaffes and it wasn't 2012 with Obama on the ticket she might have a small opportunity to gain momentum, but maybe not even then

I'm anticipating a net of +4-5, maybe 6, for newcomers which will result in a total of 19-21 total women senators. A new record which was unexpected given the retirements. Some very exciting women running.

[Mister Twister]

Anyone else worried the Senate is going to become a lot more "girly" with all these new females coming in? They might just decide to go shopping instead of doing actual legislation.

[Ogre Mage]

Anyone else worried the Senate is going to become a lot more "girly" with all these new females coming in? They might just decide to go shopping instead of doing actual legislation.

If that was a joke it wasn't funny.  We have 17 women in the Senate who have showed they are focused on the people's business.

In answer to the question, Snowe and Hutchison's retirement reduces the number of female senators to 15.  I believe that all of the incumbent female senators up for reelection will win.

My best guess is that four more women will join the current class:  Deb Fischer, Mazie Hirono, Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin.  That would raise the number of women up to 19.  In terms of the possible women who could pull a surprise and join them, the most likely is Shelley Berkley.  Democrats often underpoll in Nevada, probably due to pollsters overlooking the Hispanic vote.  Getting to 20 women senators -- one fifth of the Senate -- would be a historic milestone.

[Miles]

The ceiling would probably be 24 with wins by: Warren, McMahon, Baldwin, Heitkamp, Fischer, Berkley and Hirono.

No. Currently, there are seventeen female senators, two of whom are retiring, so we start off with a baseline of fifteen, assuming all incumbents are reelected. So even if all seven win along with McCaskill, it would be 22.

The scenario I currently project is a victory for Warren, Baldwin, Fischer, Hirono, and McCaskill, but losses for Berkley, Heitkamp, and McMahon. That would mean a total of 19 women in the Senate, a net gain of 2.

I forgot to account for Hutchison and Snowe leaving.

[Miles]

Anyone else worried the Senate is going to become a lot more "girly" with all these new females coming in? They might just decide to go shopping instead of doing actual legislation.

Then I recommend you watch the documentary "14 Women" if that is your actual view.

[Knives]

I'm really excited for Hirono.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

21, with wins by McMahon, Hirono, McCaskill, and Fischer, assuming all the incumbent women running this year win reelection.