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Author Topic: AZ-PPP: Romney ahead by 9  (Read 623 times)
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« on: October 03, 2012, 05:49:45 pm »
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Obama advisors may think the stae is winnable, but PPP is showing a likely GOP scenario, with a 40/57 approval for the President and Romney favorability above 50%.

Romney 53%
Obama  44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/carmona-up-2-romney-by-9-in-arizona.html
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
J. J.
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2012, 05:52:11 pm »
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It's not unexpected, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was by 10+ points.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Lief
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2012, 05:53:57 pm »
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PPP has been showing very Republican numbers lately.
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5280
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2012, 05:54:07 pm »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
knyphausen
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2012, 06:32:35 pm »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%

You expect that much to go to third parties (7%)!?! Shocked

Why may I ask?
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5280
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2012, 07:25:17 pm »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%

You expect that much to go to third parties (7%)!?! Shocked

Why may I ask?
There are 3 candidates that I know of are running as third party.  They could split the vote by 2-2.5% at least.
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
5280
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2012, 07:53:41 pm »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%

You expect that much to go to third parties (7%)!?! Shocked

Why may I ask?
There are 3 candidates that I know of are running as third party.  They could split the vote by 2-2.5% at least.

I know math isn't your strong suit (or thinking in general, for that matter), but 2% is NOT equal to 7%
You should really watch what you say, cause you're going to piss some people off by saying negative attacks.  Don't be a jackass.  

My numbers are off, no need to point out the obvious stuff.  When you have 3 third party candidates that take 2.5%, 2.5% and 2%, it adds up to 7%.
« Last Edit: October 03, 2012, 07:59:06 pm by 5280 »Logged

Paul/Cruz 2016!
danny
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2012, 12:45:18 am »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%

You expect that much to go to third parties (7%)!?! Shocked

Why may I ask?
There are 3 candidates that I know of are running as third party.  They could split the vote by 2-2.5% at least.

I know math isn't your strong suit (or thinking in general, for that matter), but 2% is NOT equal to 7%
You should really watch what you say, cause you're going to piss some people off by saying negative attacks.  Don't be a jackass.  

My numbers are off, no need to point out the obvious stuff.  When you have 3 third party candidates that take 2.5%, 2.5% and 2%, it adds up to 7%.

The math is good, but I don't see why you would get 3 parties with at least 2%, when in 2008 none managed even close to 1%.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2012, 12:47:02 am »
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PPP has been showing very Republican numbers lately.

Maybe they are just good pollsters.  The house bias might come into play as well.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 02:14:25 am »
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I expect Romney to win around 52% of the vote, and Obama about 41%

You expect that much to go to third parties (7%)!?! Shocked

Why may I ask?
There are 3 candidates that I know of are running as third party.  They could split the vote by 2-2.5% at least.

I know math isn't your strong suit (or thinking in general, for that matter), but 2% is NOT equal to 7%
You should really watch what you say, cause you're going to piss some people off by saying negative attacks.  Don't be a jackass.  

My numbers are off, no need to point out the obvious stuff.  When you have 3 third party candidates that take 2.5%, 2.5% and 2%, it adds up to 7%.

The math is good, but I don't see why you would get 3 parties with at least 2%, when in 2008 none managed even close to 1%.
Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and Goode.  I'm only factoring in the big name third party candidates.  Averaging the numbers in 3 ways is the easiest outcome.
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2012, 09:54:53 am »

New Poll: Arizona President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-03

Summary: D: 41%, R: 52%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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5280
MagneticFree
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2012, 10:08:52 am »
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And I guessed right on the nose with this one. Go me...
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
Umengus
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2012, 12:49:27 pm »
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PPP has been showing very Republican numbers lately.

like Ras but for democrats...

Party id: R +16 (R +7 in 2008)

So optimist for republicans but the Obama +8 amongst independents (+5 in 2008) is probably overestimated so all in all, global result is fine.
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
Niemeyerite
JulioMadrid
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2012, 02:37:07 pm »
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New Poll: Arizona President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-03

Summary: D: 41%, R: 52%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details



Hey, boss, you have it wrong Wink
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My evolution (by The Political Matrix):
E: -6.06 -> -6.97 -> -6.97 -> -8.13 -> -7.29 -> -8.26 -> -8.65 -> -7.03
S: -6.78 -> -6.09 -> -7.30 -> -7.13 -> -8.09 -> -8.35 -> -9.04 -> -8.61
Umengus
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2012, 04:17:50 pm »
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New Poll: Arizona President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-10-03

Summary: D: 41%, R: 52%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details



blasphem !

No, he's right. cfr Q7 in the poll

Hey, boss, you have it wrong Wink
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Re: France 2012: the official thread
Reply #622 on: July 25, 2011, 04:44:20 pm  

Quote from: Umengus on July 25, 2011, 03:19:09 pm

against Aubry, Sarkozy will win. Aubry is a very bad candidate for prime time : no charisma, no sympathy, muslim connection, stupid ideas,... and sarkozy is a good candidate...

but against hollande, sarkozy will lose."

Censured by REALPOLITIK due to "offensive content".

"It ought to be noted that there's no freedom of speech here." xahar
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