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| | |-+  Post 1st Debate: Who will win the Election?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: Who will win Election?
Obama/Biden   -80 (73.4%)
Romney/Ryan   -25 (22.9%)
Unsure   -4 (3.7%)
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Total Voters: 109

Author Topic: Post 1st Debate: Who will win the Election?  (Read 1135 times)
Pacific Councillor LiberalJunkie
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« on: October 03, 2012, 09:36:56 pm »
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« Reply #1 on: October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm »
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Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election.
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« Reply #2 on: October 03, 2012, 09:48:51 pm »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm
Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election.



Agreed but with a 2000 Bush style win.
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« Reply #3 on: October 03, 2012, 09:55:21 pm »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm
Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election.
To put it in probabilistic terms, Obama has about a 70% chance of winning after this debate, but if the other two debates go like this Mitt has about a 60% chance of winning.
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« Reply #4 on: October 03, 2012, 10:14:43 pm »
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The Rust Belt isn't going to vote for Mr Let Detroit Go Bankrupt. Goode will keep VA in the Dem column. And all the Mexicans in CO, NV, and NM will keep those states in the Obama camp
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« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2012, 10:18:48 pm »
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Obama. But Romney has clung to the possibility he could pull off a win. If he lost tonight it probably would have been over barring a major surprise. I expect Ryan to beat Biden, if that keeps up perhaps we'll see even polling.
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« Reply #6 on: October 03, 2012, 10:26:43 pm »
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Still Obama.
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« Reply #7 on: October 03, 2012, 10:29:51 pm »
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Obama. I'm not sure if Romney will even get a bump out of this (although the MSM lovefest may produce one in itself).
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Speaker Dereich
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« Reply #8 on: October 03, 2012, 10:37:43 pm »
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Obama, but this might bring one or two senate seats back from the brink.
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« Reply #9 on: October 03, 2012, 10:42:10 pm »
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Those numbers have not been too bad.  I'd list it as unsure.
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« Reply #10 on: October 03, 2012, 11:25:53 pm »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm
Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election.
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« Reply #11 on: October 03, 2012, 11:36:08 pm »
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2012, 04:34:30 am »
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I'm not quite sure about this; Obama being defeated at what he usually excels does not bear well for him even if he still leads the polls.
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2012, 04:37:02 am »
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Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm
Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election. Mitt Romney will have a shot.
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2012, 04:40:30 am »
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Quote from: GMantis on October 04, 2012, 04:34:30 am
I'm not quite sure about this; Obama being defeated at what he usually excels does not bear well for him even if he still leads the polls.
Quote from: Senator Franzl on October 04, 2012, 04:37:02 am
Quote from: Tmthforu94 on October 03, 2012, 09:46:38 pm
Obama is still favored, however, if the other two debates are similar to this, Mitt Romney will win the election. Mitt Romney will have a shot.



Yes, that's what I'm thinking... Romney earned a second look from people, but this certainly didn't seal any deals.
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2012, 04:43:34 am »
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I haven't changed my view all along that Romney will win.  Records matter, the economy matters, and some of the optics of Obama's term have been jarring.
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2012, 04:57:04 am »
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Still Obama.
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2012, 04:58:02 am »
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Obama, but he better not f**k up the other two debates.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2012, 05:20:43 am »
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Unsure. Back to 50/50 for me.
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London Man
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2012, 06:04:40 am »
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Obama, but a landslide is now out of the question.
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2012, 07:54:28 am »
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Quote from: GMantis on October 04, 2012, 04:34:30 am
I'm not quite sure about this; Obama being defeated at what he usually excels does not bear well for him even if he still leads the polls.

Obama has never been an incredible debater, to be honest. He managed to beat McCain in '08 but that was only after about 9,000 debates with Hillary Clinton (and MSM declared him the loser of at least 8,000 of them).
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Secretary Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2012, 07:57:11 am »
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Quote from: Eraserhead on October 04, 2012, 07:54:28 am
Quote from: GMantis on October 04, 2012, 04:34:30 am
I'm not quite sure about this; Obama being defeated at what he usually excels does not bear well for him even if he still leads the polls.

Obama has never been an incredible debater, to be honest. He managed to beat McCain in '08 but that was only after about 9,000 debates with Hillary Clinton (and MSM declared him the loser of at least 8,000 of them).

People have very short memories... He beat McCain because McCain was only slightly worse than he was.
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2012, 08:38:22 am »
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gonna take a lot more than this.  Intrade is severely overreacting -- Obama is down from 75 to 65
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2012, 08:47:05 am »
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Quote from: © remember Tweed as a silhouette on October 04, 2012, 08:38:22 am
gonna take a lot more than this.  Intrade is severely overreacting -- Obama is down from 75 to 65

I wonder if one should buy Obama now or wait a couple of days to see if an actual drop in the polls does materialize.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 08:51:07 am by Eraserhead »Logged
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2012, 09:03:27 am »
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Obama still leads.  The national polls may get closer, but my guess is that we are now at about Obama +1 and I certainly don't see Romney picking up 5 points in Ohio based on last night.  ~70% chance of Obama victory, down from ~80% 24 hours ago.
 
Now there is the VP debate, which probably won't matter.

Then there is the town hall debate, which I would call a tossup at this point.  Romney will be better prepared than Obama again, which likely does help, but the format won't be as good for him as last night was.  Telling Lehrer/Obama how much stuff you know is different from telling an individual voter how much stuff you know, and the probability of an Awkward Romney Gaffe is highest.  There will probably also be fewer economy questions and more social issues questions- Dems should be grateful that Lehrer didn't bring up women's issues and the like last night as Romney might have cleaned Obama's clock on those too.

Then there is the foreign policy debate, which (a) people likely won't vote on and (b) is not Romney's home turf, as the economy is.
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