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| | |-+  Will Friday's job numbers help Obama recover?
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Yes (D)   -9 (17.6%)
No (D)   -9 (17.6%)
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Author Topic: Will Friday's job numbers help Obama recover?  (Read 1415 times)
Scott
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« on: October 04, 2012, 12:36:17 am »
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Early indicators suggested that the September jobs report will be good, so a decent jobs report and a couple good rounds of debates for Obama might be enough to erase tonight's bad numbers.  I'm not sure if those indicators predicted something different recently, though.
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Beet
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 12:39:56 am »
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Oh my god. Please do not get your hopes up for this, guys. The last thing Obama needs right now is over-inflated hopes on one number which is a rough, rough, rough estimate that will get drastically revised 3 times, and then get revised again in six months, then get revised again a year later. Margin of error +/- a couple hundred thousand. It'll likely be a disappointment. The ISM services employment index fell from last month, when only 96,000 jobs were created. So I'm expecting less than 96,000. Remember, Europe is long jobs, Japan is losing jobs, it'll be a miracle at all if we gain jobs.

The main point is that Obama has created over 5 million private sector jobs in the past 2 1/2 years, and has a much better job creation record than George W. Bush in his first term.
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J. J.
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2012, 12:42:11 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.
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J. J.

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 12:43:44 am »
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The last thing Obama needs right now is over-inflated hopes on one number

You mean like that 8 percent one he made back in 2008 that still hasn't happened 4 years later?

If Obama's campaign is hoping to fight the election on the economy - then Mitt's won. Plain as day. This economy is absolutely horrible.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 12:45:38 am »
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The last thing Obama needs right now is over-inflated hopes on one number

You mean like that 8 percent one he made back in 2008 that still hasn't happened 4 years later?

If Obama's campaign is hoping to fight the election on the economy - then Mitt's won. Plain as day. This economy is absolutely horrible.

You know, one debate and unknown employment numbers are not necessarily a sign of Armageddon.    Smiley
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J. J.

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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 12:51:31 am »
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The last thing Obama needs right now is over-inflated hopes on one number

You mean like that 8 percent one he made back in 2008 that still hasn't happened 4 years later?

If Obama's campaign is hoping to fight the election on the economy - then Mitt's won. Plain as day. This economy is absolutely horrible.

The election's going to be fought on everything, including, but not limited to, the economy. Mitt learned that the hard way- he can't just run on "the economy is horrible" just as Obama can't just run on "the economy is turning around." There are specific issues at stake and that's what Mitt realized in time for tonight's debate and that's where the election will also be fought on.
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Scott
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2012, 12:53:51 am »
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The last thing Obama needs right now is over-inflated hopes on one number

You mean like that 8 percent one he made back in 2008 that still hasn't happened 4 years later?

If Obama's campaign is hoping to fight the election on the economy - then Mitt's won. Plain as day. This economy is absolutely horrible.

Says the guy who made this?

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IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2012, 01:31:07 am »
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You know, one debate and unknown employment numbers are not necessarily a sign of Armageddon.

You have me confused with an Obama fan.
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2012, 01:32:47 am »
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Says the guy who made this?

It seems I underestimated Obama's ineptitude. Making Mitt Romney look good in a debate?
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 01:35:16 am »
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No. After the disastrous debate, there is no hope for Obama to recover
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Politico
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2012, 01:35:25 am »
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Early indicators suggested that the September jobs report will be good

Source? All signs point towards about 110,000 jobs, which does NOT keep pace with population growth. This is not good enough. This is not solving the unemployment problem. This economy is terrible.

Obama and Co. better hope and pray the figure is six digits as anticipated, or they are in a world of trouble!
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J. J.
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2012, 01:37:38 am »
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You know, one debate and unknown employment numbers are not necessarily a sign of Armageddon.

You have me confused with an Obama fan.

Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.   Wink
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2012, 02:07:15 am »
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Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.

Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. I did not expect Romney to work his butt off and actually deliver. That effort will be rewarded in a month's time. Obama clearly expected that just showing up was enough and he got his butt handed to him.
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2012, 02:23:32 am »
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Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.

Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. I did not expect Romney to work his butt off and actually deliver. That effort will be rewarded in a month's time. Obama clearly expected that just showing up was enough and he got his butt handed to him.

You made a map with a Democratic Alabama, and now you're predicting a Republican win with certitude...basically on the basis of one debate alone?

You are officially entered for a third time on my list of completely ridiculous people.
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2012, 02:30:14 am »
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You made a map with a Democratic Alabama, and now you're predicting a Republican win with certitude...basically on the basis of one debate alone?

When a 3:1 ratio of we the people think Romney, Morman extraordinaire kicked his ass, yes that's going to translate into greater support.

Obama doesn't have much to run on except for the fact that he's considered to be 'bright', and that he speaks well. If he doesn't have that - what does he have?

As for the election results - I based that on my assessment of Romney until now. He was unable to deliver the knockout blow. He's one of the weakest nominees in the history of the Republican party. Few nominees ever have a competitor with 10+ states won, let alone Santorum. I based that on third party candidacy from two right-most parties, that has been drawing support off of Romney for months. I also based that on the assumption that Obama continued to do what he was doing.

Any of those factors change, the race changes. Do I think he'll win? No. But going up +5 in NC helps. I think he will be rewarded, but I don't believe that at present it's enough to overcome the negative factors this election.
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2012, 02:33:48 am »
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I'm sorry, but I can't hear you over the redness of Alabama on that map.
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Politico
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2012, 02:51:20 am »
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Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.

Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. I did not expect Romney to work his butt off and actually deliver. That effort will be rewarded in a month's time. Obama clearly expected that just showing up was enough and he got his butt handed to him.

It's because the man is in over his head and surrounded by Chicago sycophants.

I am willing to bet he will cling to the White House by watching the returns there.
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2012, 06:33:12 am »
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Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.

Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. I did not expect Romney to work his butt off and actually deliver. That effort will be rewarded in a month's time. Obama clearly expected that just showing up was enough and he got his butt handed to him.

It's because the man is in over his head and surrounded by Chicago sycophants.

I am willing to bet he will cling to the White House by watching the returns there.

Will you shut up about freaking Chicago?
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President von Cat
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2012, 07:46:50 am »
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2012, 07:47:11 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.

Haha, good one, JJ.

These job reports haven't really had any impact on the campaign and there's no reason to believe they'll start to now.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 07:49:30 am by Eraserhead »Logged

Senator Polnut
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2012, 07:51:00 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.

Haha, good one, JJ.

These job reports haven't really had any impact on the campaign and there's no reason to believe they'll start to now.

JJ's numbers have been turning on him left, right and centre... Let's have some compassion
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2012, 08:41:38 am »
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Oh, sorry, but I thought you'd like the increasingly rare distinction.

Well, I have to give credit where credit is due. I did not expect Romney to work his butt off and actually deliver. That effort will be rewarded in a month's time. Obama clearly expected that just showing up was enough and he got his butt handed to him.

It's really interesting that he's recasting himself as a moderate and that's what's enabling him to run stronger.
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J. J.
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2012, 09:00:18 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.

Haha, good one, JJ.

These job reports haven't really had any impact on the campaign and there's no reason to believe they'll start to now.

Well, I think they have, though not as much as other things.  36 hours before these numbers came out Obama was saying the economy was improving.  If the numbers show that the economy is not improving, it steps on his narrative for the next three weeks.
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J. J.

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"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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brittain33
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2012, 09:01:46 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.

Haha, good one, JJ.

These job reports haven't really had any impact on the campaign and there's no reason to believe they'll start to now.

Well, I think they have, though not as much as other things.  36 hours before these numbers came out Obama was saying the economy was improving.  If the numbers show that the economy is not improving, it steps on his narrative for the next three weeks.

Is that what happened with the last jobs report? How many weeks did that shape the narrative?
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Politico
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2012, 09:43:46 am »
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It depends what they are.

The numbers will be worse than when Obama took office.  A decline in rate and an increase in the number of employed will.  Bad numbers, and Obama is probably finished.

Haha, good one, JJ.

These job reports haven't really had any impact on the campaign and there's no reason to believe they'll start to now.

Well, I think they have, though not as much as other things.  36 hours before these numbers came out Obama was saying the economy was improving.  If the numbers show that the economy is not improving, it steps on his narrative for the next three weeks.

Is that what happened with the last jobs report? How many weeks did that shape the narrative?

People are paying attention now, and looking for reasons to NOT vote for Obama.
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