When a 3:1 ratio of we the people think Romney, Morman extraordinaire kicked his ass, yes that's going to translate into greater support.
Obama doesn't have much to run on except for the fact that he's considered to be 'bright', and that he speaks well. If he doesn't have that - what does he have?
As for the election results - I based that on my assessment of Romney until now. He was unable to deliver the knockout blow. He's one of the weakest nominees in the history of the Republican party. Few nominees ever have a competitor with 10+ states won, let alone Santorum. I based that on third party candidacy from two right-most parties, that has been drawing support off of Romney for months. I also based that on the assumption that Obama continued to do what he was doing.
Any of those factors change, the race changes. Do I think he'll win? No. But going up +5 in NC helps. I think he will be rewarded, but I don't believe that at present it's enough to overcome the negative factors this election.