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Author Topic: Romney still can't win the electoral college  (Read 2095 times)
gotapresent
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« on: October 04, 2012, 04:07:19 am »
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Regardless of what kind of bounce Romney gets out of the debate, or how close the national polls get, the electoral college hill he has to climb to reach 270 is virtually insurmountable.

If you take Romney's RealClearPolitics polling averages in all the battleground states and add 1% to all of them, he wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state, which results in a 332-206 electoral vote victory by Obama.

Add 3% to all states instead, and he manages to flip Florida for a final tally of 303-235.

Add 5%, and he's able to flip Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado but STILL loses, with Obama winning by 275-263.

Only at around +6% does he win Nevada, and bring the electoral vote score to a 269-269 tie, and give him a controversial and impossibly narrow victory from the House of Representatives.

In other words, Romney must improve his standing in each and every battleground state by at least 6% in the course of the next few weeks, in order to squeak out one of the narrowest victories in U.S. history. Good luck to him, but my bet is still on Obama...
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 05:03:43 am »
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Interestingly, if the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact was in effect, this could actually be a close election.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2012, 05:19:40 am »
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I think the debate turned this from a Obama semi-landslide back to a 50/50 election. I think the debate help change the whole perception of Romney as a candidate and that is very dangerous for the Obama campaign who has spent all summer trying to paint a particular picture of Romney (with good help from Romney himself).
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opebo
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 06:05:33 am »
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Regardless of what kind of bounce Romney gets out of the debate, or how close the national polls get, the electoral college hill he has to climb to reach 270 is virtually insurmountable.

If you take Romney's RealClearPolitics polling averages in all the battleground states and add 1% to all of them, he wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state, which results in a 332-206 electoral vote victory by Obama.

Add 3% to all states instead, and he manages to flip Florida for a final tally of 303-235.

Add 5%, and he's able to flip Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado but STILL loses, with Obama winning by 275-263.

Only at around +6% does he win Nevada, and bring the electoral vote score to a 269-269 tie, and give him a controversial and impossibly narrow victory from the House of Representatives.

In other words, Romney must improve his standing in each and every battleground state by at least 6% in the course of the next few weeks, in order to squeak out one of the narrowest victories in U.S. history. Good luck to him, but my bet is still on Obama...

Actually, Romney just needs to improve his standing in each battleground state by the amount he is behind in that state, and I see no reason to expect the swing to be uniform.  So, given the nature of Ohio and the nature of Obama's lead there (he is only ahead there by 5.5% according to RCP), Romney should be able - in fact is very likely - to turn it around.   Even though the polls say Romney is closer in Nevada than in Ohio, I think the actual likelihood of a Romney win in Ohio is much greater, given the nature of the electorate in each state.

The most likely map on election day is this:

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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 07:13:06 am »
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I think it's clear that Romney needs to win the popular vote to get a majority of electoral votes. Contrast this to 2004, when the early exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote but Kerry winning the electoral vote.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 07:36:00 am »
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If Romney pulls ahead in the PV, chances are he'll win the EC. Remember, Gore would have won FL if all of the votes were counted.
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2012, 08:07:32 am »
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If Romney pulls ahead in the PV, chances are he'll win the EC. Remember, Gore would have won FL if all of the votes were counted.

Maybe.

Certainly if all eligible voters had been allowed to vote.

On the other hand, Kerry was quite close to winning the Electoral College despite losing the PV clearly.
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Senator Polnut
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2012, 08:16:01 am »
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If Romney pulls ahead in the PV, chances are he'll win the EC. Remember, Gore would have won FL if all of the votes were counted.

Maybe.

Certainly if all eligible voters had been allowed to vote.

On the other hand, Kerry was quite close to winning the Electoral College despite losing the PV clearly.

Yeah, Bush could have won the PV by about 2% and still have lost OH and the election...
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2012, 09:35:52 am »
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All Romney needs is less than 2.5-5.0% taken from the president, and given to him, in the battlegrounds. This is assuming the polling methodology is correct, and assuming Obama is able to get a good turnout ground game (no guarantee; many Democrats are ready to not vote if this keeps up)

Only one of these states did not go to Bush twice (And Kerry had the neighborhood effect going for him in NH):

3: IN, VA, NC
2: OH, FL
1: NH or CO

= President-elect Romney
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 10:23:13 am by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 10:53:41 am »
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Contrast this to 2004, when the early exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote but Kerry winning the electoral vote.

If Romney wins the PV he will win the election. Republicans have never lost when winning the PV - this is because California tilts so radically dem.
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2012, 11:01:21 am »
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Erm, California has only been a Democratic stronghold since at the earliest 1992. That's only five elections, which is a pretty small sample size out of all elections that have been held, which include many where California was a swing state or even Republican state.
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2012, 11:04:33 am »
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Contrast this to 2004, when the early exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote but Kerry winning the electoral vote.

If Romney wins the PV he will win the election. Republicans have never lost when winning the PV - this is because California tilts so radically dem.
How many times has someone last while winning the PV?  It can't be more than a few times, hardly a good sample size.
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2012, 11:08:59 am »
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Only happened three times, Gore, Grover Cleveland that one time and Samuel Tilden.
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2012, 11:13:51 am »
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Contrast this to 2004, when the early exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote but Kerry winning the electoral vote.

If Romney wins the PV he will win the election. Republicans have never lost when winning the PV - this is because California tilts so radically dem.

The Republicans have won the Presidency three times while losing the PV. On two of those occasions, they won California. California is only "radically dem" on the presidential level and even then only for the past 20 years.

Throughout most of the 2004 campaign, Bush had a slim but clear lead in the national polls, but the electoral college swung back and forth. So it was plausible that Kerry could have won without a plurality of the PV.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2012, 11:15:12 am »
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Only happened three times, Gore, Grover Cleveland that one time and Samuel Tilden.

Andrew Jackson (1824)?  I think that was a plurality, but less than a majority.
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J. J.

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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2012, 11:19:10 am »
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Only happened three times, Gore, Grover Cleveland that one time and Samuel Tilden.

There was also an earlier time.  I think Jackson won a plurality of the popular vote in 1824, but nobody won a majority in the electoral college.  The House of Representatives elected Adams.  
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J. J.
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2012, 09:18:19 am »
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Since we don't have a thread (I think), here is my prediction:



I will concede that CO and VA are very possible flips.  My guess for the popular vote is:

Obama:  50.5

Romney:  48.5

Other:  1%

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J. J.

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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2012, 10:36:14 am »
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Erm, California has only been a Democratic stronghold since at the earliest 1992. That's only five elections, which is a pretty small sample size out of all elections that have been held, which include many where California was a swing state or even Republican state.

Between 1952 and 1988, California voted Democratic only once. Arizona was the only state in the country that was more Republican over that span.
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2012, 11:23:26 am »
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So it was plausible that Kerry could have won without a plurality of the PV

I lived with two greenpeace folks who said the exact same thing in 2004. Their tears were delicious.

Again, if the Republicans win the popular vote, they will win the election. It's already 90+ correlation between the two, and the fact that the most populous state tilts so much Democrat is why it won't happen.
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2012, 02:20:39 pm »
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Since WW2, the Electoral College has favored Republicans 8 times (1948, 1952, 1968, 1976, 1984, 1988, 1992 and 2000) and Democrats 8 times (1956, 1960, 1964, 1972, 1980, 1996, 2004, 2008). Of course, it did only actually make a difference only in 2000, but it came insanely close to making a difference in 1960 as well - and in JFK's favor. There is absolutely no evidence that Republicans are structurally favored by the Electoral College.
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2012, 03:11:14 pm »
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I agree with the OP.  Romney may actually make this a close election after all, but he won't win simply because he doesn't have the EV's lined up in his direction.  He won't win OH and his chances in FL have been minimal since he announced Ryan as his VP.

Also, I think it's interesting that it's as close as the polls suggest in places like IA, NH, WI and CO.  That'd make one think things were turning Romney's way, but the lack of OH *and* FL will cause Romney to lose.
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2012, 03:45:44 pm »
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My prediction still stands. I stuck with it in May, July and I will again.
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2012, 05:22:22 pm »
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I agree with the OP.  Romney may actually make this a close election after all, but he won't win simply because he doesn't have the EV's lined up in his direction.  He won't win OH and his chances in FL have been minimal since he announced Ryan as his VP.

Also, I think it's interesting that it's as close as the polls suggest in places like IA, NH, WI and CO.  That'd make one think things were turning Romney's way, but the lack of OH *and* FL will cause Romney to lose.

Most polls suggest he's already flipped Florida, and Ohio is not far off.  Chances are that white working class voters were flirting with voting Obama solely because Romney is so clearly (blatantly even) the epitome of the class which is destroying them, but now that they saw Obama next to him, and Romney was so white (and Obama so black by contrast), they can't help but change.  Obama should never have agreed to appear on TV.
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2012, 06:30:02 pm »
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While it does look bleak for Romney, it can still be done. With current polling showing a swing in Romneys favor, coupled with the nature of polls in general, it would be foolish to count Romney out because of some marginal numbers from the swing states.

And despite the avalanche of rhetoric against it, there are a few remaining paths to a Romney victory that do not include Ohio. The next few weeks will be interesting indeed!
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2012, 11:09:28 pm »
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It's ironic that opebo predicts a Romney win and J.J. predicts an Obama win.  I wonder if it has anything to do with where they live. 

To the people talking about my home state: you make some very good points.  As for me, I wouldn't be at all surprised if he made a late play for my state.  Unemployment is high, there's news of surging gas prices and even a possible shortage in the next month.  This in and of itself won't necessarily flip the state, but it'll be murder for Democratic enthusiasm.  It seems far-fetched, but as others have noted, Romney is leading among Independents by a good margin, and the relative turnout among the two major parties can make him competitive.  Even if he loses the state, I wouldn't be surprised if he broke 46 or 47 percent. 
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