gotapresent
Rookie
Posts: 32
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« on: October 04, 2012, 04:07:19 AM » |
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Regardless of what kind of bounce Romney gets out of the debate, or how close the national polls get, the electoral college hill he has to climb to reach 270 is virtually insurmountable.
If you take Romney's RealClearPolitics polling averages in all the battleground states and add 1% to all of them, he wins North Carolina and loses every other swing state, which results in a 332-206 electoral vote victory by Obama.
Add 3% to all states instead, and he manages to flip Florida for a final tally of 303-235.
Add 5%, and he's able to flip Iowa, Virginia, and Colorado but STILL loses, with Obama winning by 275-263.
Only at around +6% does he win Nevada, and bring the electoral vote score to a 269-269 tie, and give him a controversial and impossibly narrow victory from the House of Representatives.
In other words, Romney must improve his standing in each and every battleground state by at least 6% in the course of the next few weeks, in order to squeak out one of the narrowest victories in U.S. history. Good luck to him, but my bet is still on Obama...
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