French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Marcus Aurelius]

The right-wing monolithic party created by Jacques Chirac in 2002 is currently running its first time competitive leadership election. The election is for the office of President of the party, which was vacant under the 5-year term of Nicolas Sarkozy as President of France.

Vote will happen on November 18th, and is reserved to UMP enlisted members. Still, it accounts for a potential of around 230,000 voters, and will be a test of how the right can handle a mediatic voting process as well as the center-left PS succeeded a year ago.

For the first time, voting will also choose between platforms, which may or may not result in the installation of official wings of the party. As of now, there are clubs or groups, but not official wings.

According to plans, the winner here will not automatically be the nominee for the 2017 French Presidential election, when the UMP could or could not use an open primary process, but he certainly will have an edge in that.

After a number of "small or medium" candidates failed to gather the necessary signatures of 3% of the members (ca. 8,000), we're left with only two candidates :

-François Fillon, Prime Minister of Sarkozy from 2007 to 2012, several times minister before that, largely representing the quiet, moderate kind of right. He is the favourite in each and every poll. His assets are : he is seen as the contrary of Sarkozy, who just lost. He is seen as a better potential gatherer of ideologies, more mainstream centre-right which can steal appeal to parts of the hardcore right or even far-right. Plus he just served for five years as Prime Minister with relatively good support-levels as opposed to Sarkozy's, so he's got the "statesman stature". Main drawback : can be seen as a bit soft or shallow.

-Jean-François Copé, incumbent Secretary General of the party (ie. de facto leader), has been minister and government spokesman but a while ago. He is seen as more of the energetic, dynamic and somewhat erratic kind of right, more appealing to hardcore and far right supporters. Main assets : he has had the control over the party logistics for a while now, so he basically organizes the election and knows every influent middle executives of the party. Plus he is seen as energetic, the only item in which he defeats Fillon in polls, and he's the underdog so he has nothing to lose. Drawbacks : he is seen as too much a clone of Sarkozy, which is kind of embarrassing right now (could not be the same in 2016 though...), and he continually fails to extend his support towards the centre-right and the centre.

For now, we didn't have many polls rolling in, but they've all been between 65-35 and 75-25 in favor of Fillon. We will have at least one televised debate but I don't think the date's been announced so far. Generally, the media treats Fillon as the future winner, and their favourite.

The outcome will depend on which departemental federations will have which turnout, how much the debate and the last month of media campaigning will affect voters. We could expect a narrower outcome, but few can see Copé winning in the end for now.

See this blog for more information, made by our fellow Atlas member big bad fab.

[big bad fab]

There were around 260,000 members on June, 30th.
There may be some more now, as some former could have come back and some 2011 members hadn't paid their due yet on June, 30th.

Turnout will be a very important: low, it's good for Copé, as mainly strong right-wingers would vote; higher and it's good for Fillon, as more moderate voters enter the game.

As the campaign is quite long, we can guess many members will vote. And November, 18th won't be sunny and isn't during holidays


I went to Fillon's meeting in Brittany last Saturday: no big surprise and a small place, for around 200 people... It was quite fun...
It's a moderate region but, still, Sarkozy's name was applauded a lot...

[Californian Tony]

This might be the first time than I and Fab support the same candidate. Not that I have a very high esteem for Fillon, but Copé is... what he is. If Hollande is to lose in 2017, I'd rather have him lose against Fillon.

Anyways, good to see there will be something else to follow shortly after the US election cycle is over.

[Marcus Aurelius]

A new poll OpinionWay shows that Fillon is preferred among right-wing voters. This poll doesn't give voting intentions, rather preferences on several issues or affirmations.

Fillon-Copé
35-15 "capable of leading UMP to victory in local elections of 2014"
32-17 "embodies the future of the right-wing"
32-16 "faithful to Sarkozy's legacy" (which is a severe blow for Copé that tries so hard to be viewed as Sarkozy's legitimate heir)
39-11 "able to unite all the right-wing voters"
29-13 "embodies the right-wing values"
24-10 "has a project for the right-wing"
37-21 "would be a good opposition leader"
Copé leads in the following :
24-26 "embodies the right-wing's renewal"
18-23 "is close to the UMP members and activists" (remember Copé is the present Secretary General of the party)
15-31 "modern"
16-37 "dynamic"

That means right-wing voters want a soft and kinda old-school leader to unite their side for the middle-term elections. This could not be the same man they will need to win in 2017 though...

[Californian Tony]

We need the number among the UMP electorate (ideally among actual members, if not at least sympathizers). Otherwise I think that's pretty meaningless.

[Marcus Aurelius]

You know as well as I do how many people they'd need to call in order to build a large enough sample of UMP actual members. So it's true we have no choice but to take those figures, and they might not give us a good picture of what is really going on inside (though I guess it's a pretty accurate one nevertheless).

[Marcus Aurelius]

This election is tonight. THe first results are coming in. Once again, polls have shown that measuring UMP voters to predict a result within UMP actual members was not a good idea.

The result seems to be sharp-razor-thin, whereas every poll had Fillon at around 60-65 for Copé's 35-40. The largest federations are still to be called.

To be continued...

[Keystone Phil]

Fillon seems Romney-esque. I read that he's known for having "no fixed political positions" and is "inclusive" on social issues. Copé appears to be a little over the top though. Ugh.

[I Am Damo Suzuki]

François Fillon is said to be a representant of 'Social Gaullism', isn't he? I'm not sure of what 'Social Gaullism' means or if that definition has validity nowadays. In any case, I prefer to see elected those who represent the 'reasonable right', with somewhat 'socially inclusive' views.

[Hashemite]

François Fillon is said to be a representant of 'Social Gaullism', isn't he? I'm not sure of what 'Social Gaullism' means or if that definition has validity nowadays. In any case, I prefer to see elected those who represent the 'reasonable right', with somewhat 'socially inclusive' views.

Fillon was a séguiniste in the RPR in the 90s and 'social Gaullism' represented a brand of eurosceptic Gaullism with a "fibre sociale" (some kind of 'social' concern), and also stood in opposition to Chirac's leadership. Fillon voted against Maastricht in 1992 and in 1989 he had been one of the "douze salopards"/"rénovateurs" along with other young UDF and RPR mavericks/rebels (Noir, Millon, Carignon, Bayrou, Baudis, de Villiers etc) who opposed Chirac/VGE's leadership.

Fillon ran for the RPR presidency in 1999 on a "social Gaullist"/ex-rénovateur type of platform and won 24.6% in the first round. He basically abandoned social Gaullism and patched up his relations with Chirac in 2002, before getting ejected from cabinet in 2005 and becoming a prominent Sarkozyst and visceral opponent of Villepin/Chirac (and Raffarin too, which explains why the centrist Raffarin is such a big fan of Jeff Cope).

[Hashemite]

Things seem very tight, Jeff Cope might have a 2000-3000 vote lead with a few big feds (Paris, Alpes-Maritimes) still counting/incomplete. Things are not looking very good for Fillon though... what a pathetic and horrible party.

From what I've read, on the "motions" vote, "La Droite forte", some cheap marketing ploy/populist bullsh**t (whose main shtick is heaping praise on Sarko) led by two young Sarkozyst tools (one of whom, Guillaume Peltier, is a slimy ambitious reactionary tool who started out in the FNJ and then in the MPF...) is waaay ahead. Couldn't they at least vote for some motions which make some ideological sense and have some kind of coherent (or semi-coherent) platform? I mean, even the Fascist-Lites (La Droite pop) would be preferable to this cheap bullsh**t.

Given that France is screwed over no matter what (with Flanby in power...) and there's no hope whatsoever, we could at least hope for some fun Reims-like shenanigans. The two sides are already at each other's throats tonight...

edit: everybody is calling fraud. Dis gun be good.

[Keystone Phil]

Where can one follow the returns? Are any networks covering it/if so, is there a live stream?

[Andrea]

Both of them said they have won now!

It will be a very long night....week

[Sibboleth]

Most excellent.

[Marcus Aurelius]

This is sooooooo good. As a left-wing that is to say.

Copé called victory. Fillon called a 224 votes lead, but to be validated by the electoral internal commission. Both sides are calling electoral fraud on the other.

It's sweet. Plus, Copé being elected would be the one and only chance of Hollande to have any hope whatsoever in the future...

[JulioMadrid]

Royal-Aubry 2.0.

[Marcus Aurelius]

Royal-Aubry 2.0.

Yeah pretty much. But the right isn't used to that, so it could leave some deeper scars with them.

[Californian Tony]

Oh God, this is crazy.

I still hope Fillon eeks this out. The slightly increased possibility of winning in 2017 due to facing Copé are far outweighed by the prospect of Copé actually winning, IMO.

[big bad fab]

I'm fed up with this country...
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

[Californian Tony]

I'm fed up with this country...
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

See, I usually disagree with you but now I perfectly understand what you feel. And that's not just because Fillon is closer to my views than Copé. They indeed embody two completely different mindsets and two visions on what a modern right should be. I probably wouldn't vote for any of them, but I have infinitely more respect for people like Fillon, Juppé, Le Maire, etc. than for the rising clique of smug demagogues flourishing under Sarkozy and now Copé.

[big bad fab]

I'm fed up with this country...
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

See, I usually disagree with you but now I perfectly understand what you feel. And that's not just because Fillon is closer to my views than Copé. They indeed embody two completely different mindsets and two visions on what a modern right should be. I probably wouldn't vote for any of them, but I have infinitely more respect for people like Fillon, Juppé, Le Maire, etc. than for the rising clique of smug demagogues flourishing under Sarkozy and now Copé.

And now, I'm worried that Wauquiez, Pécresse, even Le Maire, will hurt themselves by trying to fight these bad people.
I'm very, very, very sad tonight.
I don't see any solution: being crushed between this clown Borloo and this nazi Le Pen, with a too ambitious and cheeky Copé, rallied by these cowards Raffarin or Daubresse, and these thugs Courtial, Hortefeux, Riester, Rosso-Debord, Dati, Morano, Tabarot, Karoutchi, and probably soon by these stupid Bertrand and maybe Estrosi. OMG, they are too numerous...

[Californian Tony]

Well, it's a fight worth fighting. I can't even imagine what an UMP under Copé could be like...

For electoral prospects, don't worry too much: rejection of the socialist government should be enough to keep the UMP afloat and give it a fair chance to win, even with Copé&friends. But is it a party you would want to win?

[Keystone Phil]

If only Sarkozy was re-elected, right, guys?

[big bad fab]

Well, it's a fight worth fighting. I can't even imagine what an UMP under Copé could be like...

For electoral prospects, don't worry too much: rejection of the socialist government should be enough to keep the UMP afloat and give it a fair chance to win, even with Copé&friends. But is it a party you would want to win?

For the moment, I don't know...
But I also know that you can't create a party from nothing. And Fillon isn't strong enough to do it, anyway.
And, of course, I can't support UDI (at least, electorally speaking: how would Borloo be able to win a presidential election, seriously ?).
I'm a bit lost at the moment... and even more sad after a short night
La droite la plus bête du monde.
(even though it can be argued that Berlusconi and the tea-partiers are stronger contenders )

[Senator MaxQue]

Well, those are mondial trends.
Many left-wing parties are hapless and are totally unable to correctly explain their ideas to the voters.
Many right-wing parties are making wierd tactical choices, which are hurting them.