French UMP leadership election, 2012
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  French UMP leadership election, 2012
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Author Topic: French UMP leadership election, 2012  (Read 16109 times)
Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #75 on: November 23, 2012, 01:53:45 PM »

The mouvements results were


La Droite Forte - Génération France forte 2017 27.77 %

La Droite sociale avec Laurent Wauquiez 21.69 %

France Moderne et Humaniste 18.17 %

Le Gaullisme, voie d'avenir pour la France 12.31 %

La Droite Populaire 10.87 %

La Boîte à idées, la motion anti divisions! 9.19 %

It's not clear if they counted Mayotte and co votes here though!

Unsurprisingly, the motion I would have supported came last.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #76 on: November 23, 2012, 01:55:26 PM »

Anyways, I really hope Fillon has the guts to do what is needed and leave the party if Copé is resolved to steal the election. If the sane right doesn't react now, they are doomed to oblivion.
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Icehand Gino
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« Reply #77 on: November 23, 2012, 02:07:12 PM »

If he want to leave the party, he must do it before November, 30th (deadline for registration of MPs for repartition of public funding).
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #78 on: November 23, 2012, 07:21:51 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2012, 07:44:18 PM by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »

Fillon finally accepted the UMP appeal commission during the evening, which was the biggest issue so far, after the demand of Juppé.

But even then, it wouldn't necessarily mean they surrender, can as well be to prepare a better defense if they attack in Justice later.

And nothing says Copé stole the election, he seems quite sure of himself while Fillon camp arguments and behavior seem rather messy.

Words continue to be rather violent then, and the only planed thing still is this meeting on Sunday, 19h.

Personally, I tend to think more and more they can't do anything but split, it went too far, too violent, and even Juppé isn't a consensual figurehead, Fillon camp would love to see him being the new president but Copé's are more and more pissed about him and his attitude of wise guy who is over everybody, so if even Juppé can't be consensual anymore, what's left?

Sarkozy!

Yeah, I tend to think today it could be the only solution not to make UMP blast. It would indeed be quite early for a come back for him, and he wouldn't have planed that at all, but who knows, if after Sunday both camps can't go along, then everybody will begin to speak about split, and all those who don't want to split could call for Sarkozy, and he's been washed yesterday in Bettencourt affair, polls have been quite good for him since the beginning of Hollande's quinquennat, and if a lot of people call for him maybe he wouldn't take the risk to appear as the guy who abandon his political family.

And if Sarkozy can't do anything, by a come back into the political circus or only by a strong intervention to tell people to make up their mind, then I'd say UMP is over.

Split would happen between Sunday and Friday then. Copé camp keeping all the official stuffs of the UMP, and Fillon camp and all his MPs (about 100 apparently) and elected people would have to create a new entity. That would become the last thing still kinda embodying what's left of Gaullisme/RPR, and still kinda representing a bit of political density, sanity, and decensy, but really without any dynamism, and perspectives, while Copé camp would be far more excited and dynamic but would become a rather empty stuff mainly made of communication...

Both would become small forces, between UDI and FN/RMB, they are really totally screwing themselves, and in the same time they offer a totally pitiful show, regardless of how it could be tense to follow, and concur to give an as much pitiful image of politics...

In any case, unless someone like Sarkozy makes a strong come back in between, Municipales could be destructive, it could have already been the case before all this mess, but now...

Kudos to them!

Let's just see what they are able to manage...
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Kitteh
drj101
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« Reply #79 on: November 23, 2012, 09:55:13 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2012, 09:59:19 PM by drj101 »

Don't know if this actually matters but I made a map of the largest motions in each department:


Red: La Droite Forte
Blue: La Droite Sociale
Green: France Moderne et Humaniste
Yellow: Le Gaullisme
Brown: La Droite Populare
Aqua: La Boîte à idées
Grey: Tie
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #80 on: November 23, 2012, 10:28:27 PM »

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.
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Kitteh
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« Reply #81 on: November 23, 2012, 10:32:45 PM »
« Edited: November 23, 2012, 10:34:59 PM by drj101 »

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

The results seem all over the place to me, which probably means a bunch of local factors at play. There were some areas where one motion would get 40% in one department and 10% in all the ones surrounding it. The funniest thing to me was that Le Gaullisme won 75% in Mayotte, the highest of any motion anywhere.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #82 on: November 23, 2012, 11:36:45 PM »

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

The results seem all over the place to me, which probably means a bunch of local factors at play. There were some areas where one motion would get 40% in one department and 10% in all the ones surrounding it. The funniest thing to me was that Le Gaullisme won 75% in Mayotte, the highest of any motion anywhere.

Yeah, intra-party maps in France are always messy and silly. Support from some local guy can give a 50 points boost, between actual votes and "little helps".

Vaucluse, however, doesn't surprise me at all. Grin
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Hash
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« Reply #83 on: November 24, 2012, 07:56:05 AM »

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.

Jean Leonetti, the Filloniste non-Borlooiste Radical deputy/mayor of Antibes and Michèle Tabarot, Jeff's local nitwit (ex-DL, deputy/mayor of Le Cannet).

The PS' internal maps are similar, in some cases the gap between neighboring departments are even larger (the PS has more experience with internal fraud/vote rigging and criminal barons).
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big bad fab
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« Reply #84 on: November 24, 2012, 12:16:20 PM »

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.

Jean Leonetti, the Filloniste non-Borlooiste Radical deputy/mayor of Antibes and Michèle Tabarot, Jeff's local nitwit (ex-DL, deputy/mayor of Le Cannet).

The PS' internal maps are similar, in some cases the gap between neighboring departments are even larger (the PS has more experience with internal fraud/vote rigging and criminal barons).

I'll make some maps, indeed. Let me some time. I'm deeply affected now... And, well, I have some familial problems that are quite similar to the UMP situation Tongue Though, for my family (not my real family, of course, no worry: my wife and my kids are always high and fine Wink), it will settle soon, as I will... resign and let all the mess...

Fillon should go too... Even i UMP rank and file will disagree, voters from the right, more largely, will support him.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #85 on: November 25, 2012, 01:52:21 PM »

BREAKING

AFP:

Juppé says the conditions for his mission are not present, he says his mission is over.

itélé says the commission is 'suspended'.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #86 on: November 25, 2012, 01:55:38 PM »

So Cope is still leader.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #87 on: November 25, 2012, 02:03:35 PM »

Copé on TV:

The UMP appeal commision has to do his joband say who is the president. Once done we could mix both teams for a new direction.

Nothing changed then.

He spoke from the town hall of Paris Vth, while the meeting with Juppé and Fillon took place in the Assemblée Nationale, which could mean that Copé lleft the Assemblée very fast.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #88 on: November 25, 2012, 02:12:31 PM »

They'll reconfirm him as leader. Now the question: will Fillon form a splinter party? Or too much of a Party Man for that?
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #89 on: November 25, 2012, 02:17:17 PM »

Fillon and Juppé are apparently still discussing in the Assemblée, apparently Copé have also been kinda pissed by the fact that Juppé wasn't totally neutral, and all the love declaration of Fillon camp during those last days were not very discrete.

So yeah, meanwhile the UMP appeal commission official restarted its work right now. Ciotti had called Fillonistes to quit them during the day.

Oh and BREAKING!

Fillon attacks in Justice!

He says Copé is the only responsible for this.

UMP is over.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #90 on: November 25, 2012, 02:20:32 PM »

Now the question: will Fillon form a splinter party? Or too much of a Party Man for that?

Now yeah, and that's why UMP would be over, unless a sudden totally out of nowhere come back of Sarkozy!

The doctor Juppé didn't save it.

Only a miracle could now...


Nah, it's the Right, not the Left. The Man is above the Party, not the opposite, as Zemmour very well pointed out recently it could very well be why the PS didn't blast in Reims...
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tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #91 on: November 25, 2012, 02:50:51 PM »

Lionel Tardy, one of the main Filloniste MPs, on itélé:

La messe est dîte

Now it seems sure that we gonna create a new parliamentary group with the 134 other MPs supporting Fillon.

François Fillon would announce the official decision on Tuesday.

So yeah, Copé keeps the official UMP (well, what's left of it), and the split of the parliamentary group could be the 1st step to a new party, 'the last 'Gaulliste' breath'.

lol, Copé camp guys keeping saying, 'let's wait what the appeal will say!'...
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MaxQue
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« Reply #92 on: November 25, 2012, 03:12:33 PM »

For sure than Copé wants Filion to wait, the law uses the parlimentary affiliation on November 30 to decide of the public funding of the parties.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #93 on: November 25, 2012, 03:16:56 PM »

For sure than Copé wants Filion to wait, the law uses the parlimentary affiliation on November 30 to decide of the public funding of the parties.
Which, presumably, is why not waiting a day longer is actually on the table as an option.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #94 on: November 25, 2012, 03:29:53 PM »

Lionel Tardy, one of the main Filloniste MPs, on itélé:

La messe est dîte

Now it seems sure that we gonna create a new parliamentary group with the 134 other MPs supporting Fillon.

François Fillon would announce the official decision on Tuesday.

So yeah, Copé keeps the official UMP (well, what's left of it), and the split of the parliamentary group could be the 1st step to a new party, 'the last 'Gaulliste' breath'.

lol, Copé camp guys keeping saying, 'let's wait what the appeal will say!'...

So Fillon is really leaving? And he's taking 2/3 of MPs with him? Shocked That's wonderful news if true.
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tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #95 on: November 25, 2012, 04:16:06 PM »
« Edited: November 25, 2012, 04:18:11 PM by Benwah [why on Earth do I post something] Courseyay »

Lionel Tardy, one of the main Filloniste MPs, on itélé:

La messe est dîte

Now it seems sure that we gonna create a new parliamentary group with the 134 other MPs supporting Fillon.

François Fillon would announce the official decision on Tuesday.

So yeah, Copé keeps the official UMP (well, what's left of it), and the split of the parliamentary group could be the 1st step to a new party, 'the last 'Gaulliste' breath'.

lol, Copé camp guys keeping saying, 'let's wait what the appeal will say!'...

So Fillon is really leaving? And he's taking 2/3 of MPs with him? Shocked That's wonderful news if true.

Well, that's what Lionel Tardy said, Lamour seemed to confirm it on itélé after.

Apparently tomorrow would come the officialization of Fillon's attack in Justice (lol, Copé guys continue again and again to speak about the appeal!).

Tuesday would be the day of the offcialization of the political decision.

Important thing to know, apparently you have to already have a political party before making a parliamentary group, so, it would mean that...

Also, yesterday, on itélé, they were speaking about 154 MPs, let's see what will be said on Tuesday.

But they were also saying that, each MP represents 42.000 euros, per year, to the political party to which a parliamentary group belongs, so, it would mean that...

They were also saying that UMP is currently knowing quite big debts, notably because of the buying of their new Parisian HQ, Rue de Vaugirard, which makes a debt of 35 millions of euros on 14 years, and that the loss of all those Fillon MPs would be a lack of...6 millions of euros so, it would meant that...





...that those people might be in trouble!



That being said, so far, in term of dynamic, Copé looks more impressive and more like the guy who's right, at worst he looks kinda arrogant, while Fillon looks kinda like the bad looser, and they kinda embody past political trends, but the trends could also change quickly enough, and the old school look of Fillon might in the end be seen like reassuring, and who knows, with the attack in Justice, maybe Copé could have new troubles. That being said, the most likely tonight, is that they more or less all lost!

Good covers:

Le Figaro got it:



And indeed:



Good one of Apparu on Twitter tonight:

La Droite Morte

Pick the one you prefer:







And the 35 millions € one:


Amusing how, often, the most something wants to look impressive and sedducive, the most it would hide something bad...
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #96 on: November 25, 2012, 04:26:33 PM »

I'd like to have Fab's insight on this.
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tsionebreicruoc
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« Reply #97 on: November 25, 2012, 06:02:07 PM »

...so the Sarokzy miracle will finally come??


While other papers focused on the clash that took place tonight, Le Parisien announces tonight that Fillon and Sarkozy will eat together tomorrow on midday.

During all the evening it looked like most of the strong historical Sarkozystes were siding Copé, and apparently Sarkozy was fine with a Copé win if you believe some journalists, and it went till that glorious Patrick Balkany tonight saying the charming:

Fillon doesn't only shoot a bullet in his foot by attacking in Justice, but also in his head.

Apparently it could be to try to convince not to attack in Justice. You never know what can happen but Fillon seems to be the stubborn guy not easy to handle, and who moreover could have been kinda pissed to be in Sarkozy shadow during 5 years, and now he has maybe the only occasion of his life to take a lead, and after this crazy violent week, Sarkozy would really need a miracle to convince him!

But you never know, it's been crazy during one week.

Would have been surprising he tries nothing anyhow, he would have effectively been seen as someone who abandons his political family...

So, new 'ultimatum', tomorrow, after the lunch...

(c'est vraiment n'importe quoi...)
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #98 on: November 25, 2012, 07:21:19 PM »

Balkany talking about guns/shooting is kinda...
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big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #99 on: November 26, 2012, 09:01:11 AM »

Ton avatar bleu est troublant, Antonio.
Cela te va bien, tu devrais essayer plus souvent Grin
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