French UMP leadership election, 2012

[big bad fab]

There were around 260,000 members on June, 30th.
There may be some more now, as some former could have come back and some 2011 members hadn't paid their due yet on June, 30th.

Turnout will be a very important: low, it's good for Copé, as mainly strong right-wingers would vote; higher and it's good for Fillon, as more moderate voters enter the game.

As the campaign is quite long, we can guess many members will vote. And November, 18th won't be sunny and isn't during holidays


I went to Fillon's meeting in Brittany last Saturday: no big surprise and a small place, for around 200 people... It was quite fun...
It's a moderate region but, still, Sarkozy's name was applauded a lot...

[big bad fab]

I'm fed up with this country...
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

[big bad fab]

I'm fed up with this country...
I'm desperately SAD tonight. To the point I haven't even cried.

As always, the inconsiderate, the bad-mannered, the cheeky, the vulgar, the stupid people will win.
BLEH.

See, I usually disagree with you but now I perfectly understand what you feel. And that's not just because Fillon is closer to my views than Copé. They indeed embody two completely different mindsets and two visions on what a modern right should be. I probably wouldn't vote for any of them, but I have infinitely more respect for people like Fillon, Juppé, Le Maire, etc. than for the rising clique of smug demagogues flourishing under Sarkozy and now Copé.

And now, I'm worried that Wauquiez, Pécresse, even Le Maire, will hurt themselves by trying to fight these bad people.
I'm very, very, very sad tonight.
I don't see any solution: being crushed between this clown Borloo and this nazi Le Pen, with a too ambitious and cheeky Copé, rallied by these cowards Raffarin or Daubresse, and these thugs Courtial, Hortefeux, Riester, Rosso-Debord, Dati, Morano, Tabarot, Karoutchi, and probably soon by these stupid Bertrand and maybe Estrosi. OMG, they are too numerous...

[big bad fab]

Well, it's a fight worth fighting. I can't even imagine what an UMP under Copé could be like...

For electoral prospects, don't worry too much: rejection of the socialist government should be enough to keep the UMP afloat and give it a fair chance to win, even with Copé&friends. But is it a party you would want to win?

For the moment, I don't know...
But I also know that you can't create a party from nothing. And Fillon isn't strong enough to do it, anyway.
And, of course, I can't support UDI (at least, electorally speaking: how would Borloo be able to win a presidential election, seriously ?).
I'm a bit lost at the moment... and even more sad after a short night
La droite la plus bête du monde.
(even though it can be argued that Berlusconi and the tea-partiers are stronger contenders )

[big bad fab]

See the map on my blog

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/

Copé, I can accept him (well, I need some time, though and I'm pretty convinced he will be a bad candidate): it's all the bad and the ugly people around him that I HATE...

[big bad fab]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

Follow Yves-Marie Cann and Nicolas Obrist on Twitter.
First they have gathered all the stuff they could find on Sunday on local medias, on local websites from local UMP organizations and from Twitter.
That's how I have made my own map (see my blog)

But yesterday evening, Le Figaro has published copies of the COCOE's numbers. Almost nobody has noticed it, that's amazing (medias LOVE the bad guys like Copé and they HATE the honest men).
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/cocoe.pdf
And there are also the numbers for "movements" inside the UMP:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/images/114030625-114026490-Recensement-Des-Motions-1.jpg
I have to make a map for these too, but Iim currently exhausted (and DISGUSTED by Copé and his thugs) and with too much work to do

Today, Cann and Obrist will publish a comparison between their own numbers and those of the COCOE. But they were right from the outset: Fillon has won.

[big bad fab]

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine...

It's far harsher to live than the defeat of Sarkozy or the series of losses in local and european elections in 2008-2011.


Inside the UMP, there is a "commission des recours" (appeals committee), to which you can appeal if the COCOE's decisions seem wrong.
The problem is that the appeals committee is full of Copé's guys, like the COCOE
But the other problem is that, maybe, a court won't agree to decide on a Fillon's file if he hasn't FIRST used the internal procedure...

[big bad fab]

What is far more important today is that Copé has refused some of Juppé's conditions for a conciliatory mission that the latter was OK to lead.
So, the fight will probably continue, but Fillon might be able to prove that Copé is the one who is a problem.
And, before November 30th (deadline for parliamentarians to say which party they belong to and, hence, which party will receive public financing), he might be able to split the parliamentarian groups and to be stronger than Copé's remnant UMP.
We'll see, the situation is very tense and very fluid, but clearly fascinating.
All is live, all is occurring on air, it's amazing !

[big bad fab]

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.

Jean Leonetti, the Filloniste non-Borlooiste Radical deputy/mayor of Antibes and Michèle Tabarot, Jeff's local nitwit (ex-DL, deputy/mayor of Le Cannet).

The PS' internal maps are similar, in some cases the gap between neighboring departments are even larger (the PS has more experience with internal fraud/vote rigging and criminal barons).

I'll make some maps, indeed. Let me some time. I'm deeply affected now... And, well, I have some familial problems that are quite similar to the UMP situation Though, for my family (not my real family, of course, no worry: my wife and my kids are always high and fine ), it will settle soon, as I will... resign and let all the mess...

Fillon should go too... Even i UMP rank and file will disagree, voters from the right, more largely, will support him.

[big bad fab]

Ton avatar bleu est troublant, Antonio.
Cela te va bien, tu devrais essayer plus souvent

[big bad fab]

The Fillonistas said they would remain attached with the UMP for the second fraction of party financing earlier today, but that seems to have been before Jeff pulled the plug and told them to get get f-ed. I hope they break all bridges... if only because it'd be fun to see a Balkanized right.

They'll eventually break all bridges. It has gone too far.
And the attachment to a party is valid for only one year. So, in 2013...

[big bad fab]

3 extra members for the RUMP: Valerie Boyer, Guy Teissier (both from Marseille and both pretty conservative) and Marcel Bonnot (Doubs, seems liberalish).

The "non-aligned" motion is a big smokescreen. As Laurent de Boissieu pointed out, besides the 33 'real' neutrals you have 12 soft or late fillonistes (Bertrand, Accoyer, Apparu, Douillet - plus amusingly 3 RUMP deputies who signed a text calling for the unity of AN group...) and 27 copeistes (Luca, Guaino, Le Fur, Balkany)...
ftr: http://nkm-blog.org/appel-a-lunite-de-notre-famille-politique/

Many local conflicts have spilled over to the national scene:
Dati-Charon-Goasguen-Küster-Lecoq vs Goujon-Lamour-Lellouche-Debré-Legaret in Paris
Balkany-Sarkozy-Solère vs Guillet-Devedjian-Guéant in Hauts-de-Seine
Tabarot-Luca vs Ciotti-Estrosi in Alpes-Maritimes
Raffarin-Quentin vs Bussereau (a smooth one, though) in Poitou-Charentes
Gaudin-Deflesselles vs Boyer-Teissier in Bouches-du-Rhône
even Warsmann vs Poletti in Ardennes or Vautrin vs Robinet in Marne
not so sure about possible row between Cornut-Gentille and Baroin in Aube.

Pécresse is a bit alone in Yvelines.
And please note that Devedjian has seen his election cancelled: provided he is reelected (but I'm very pessimistic: many copesits will vote for the leftist candidate...), he'll follow Fillon.
On th eother hand, if Aboud regains the seat in Herault, he'll stick to Copé.
These by-elections will have a very special taste : which factor will be more important: unpopularity of Hollande and Ayrault or disappointment with the UMP civil war ?
I still think Aboud can make it, but I'm very pessimistic about Devedjian.
Plagnol should be safe in Val-de-Marne (he is UDI and must be relieved to be so ).

Too bad we don't have a split in the Senate, because it would be fine to count every real fillonist.

[big bad fab]

Sorry, should've been more clear: I meant in the photo posted. I don't understand who is circled and why. I understand the rest, or at least understand the basics you helpfully described. 

Oh, sorry.

The guys circled are the president and a member of the intra-party commission in charge of certifying the election results. The picture was presumably taken at a Copé rally.

The rally in which he declared his candidacy.
So, Paternotte was a supporter of Copé FROM THE BEGINNING...