French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Hash]

François Fillon is said to be a representant of 'Social Gaullism', isn't he? I'm not sure of what 'Social Gaullism' means or if that definition has validity nowadays. In any case, I prefer to see elected those who represent the 'reasonable right', with somewhat 'socially inclusive' views.

Fillon was a séguiniste in the RPR in the 90s and 'social Gaullism' represented a brand of eurosceptic Gaullism with a "fibre sociale" (some kind of 'social' concern), and also stood in opposition to Chirac's leadership. Fillon voted against Maastricht in 1992 and in 1989 he had been one of the "douze salopards"/"rénovateurs" along with other young UDF and RPR mavericks/rebels (Noir, Millon, Carignon, Bayrou, Baudis, de Villiers etc) who opposed Chirac/VGE's leadership.

Fillon ran for the RPR presidency in 1999 on a "social Gaullist"/ex-rénovateur type of platform and won 24.6% in the first round. He basically abandoned social Gaullism and patched up his relations with Chirac in 2002, before getting ejected from cabinet in 2005 and becoming a prominent Sarkozyst and visceral opponent of Villepin/Chirac (and Raffarin too, which explains why the centrist Raffarin is such a big fan of Jeff Cope).

[Hash]

Things seem very tight, Jeff Cope might have a 2000-3000 vote lead with a few big feds (Paris, Alpes-Maritimes) still counting/incomplete. Things are not looking very good for Fillon though... what a pathetic and horrible party.

From what I've read, on the "motions" vote, "La Droite forte", some cheap marketing ploy/populist bullsh**t (whose main shtick is heaping praise on Sarko) led by two young Sarkozyst tools (one of whom, Guillaume Peltier, is a slimy ambitious reactionary tool who started out in the FNJ and then in the MPF...) is waaay ahead. Couldn't they at least vote for some motions which make some ideological sense and have some kind of coherent (or semi-coherent) platform? I mean, even the Fascist-Lites (La Droite pop) would be preferable to this cheap bullsh**t.

Given that France is screwed over no matter what (with Flanby in power...) and there's no hope whatsoever, we could at least hope for some fun Reims-like shenanigans. The two sides are already at each other's throats tonight...

edit: everybody is calling fraud. Dis gun be good.

[Hash]

I hereby endorse Hollande for re-election (I think.).

Why? Copé is indeed a horrible and disgusting human being from almost all points of view, and Hollande is way better than he is; but let's not get distracted from the fact that Hollande is still an incompetent doofus who is quickly turning out to be a totally useless guy who's in way over his head and whose policies are not any different from that of Sarkozy.

I endorse a big blob of sour cream (or, alternatively, McKayla Maroney) for 2017, which is, as far as I'm concerned, way better than anything else currently on offer.

[Hash]

The Fillonistas have somehow realized that everybody forgot about the feds overseas (Wallis, NC, Mayotte) and that with their votes, Fillon won by 26 votes. The Cocoe, which seems about as legit as the Russian election commission, has said that it did forget about them but it's too late now and Jeff is telling the Fillonistas to shut up.

lol

[Hash]

UPDATE!

Fillon says that he doesn't want the presidency; but he wants the "truth". He wants Juppé to become leader instead while the issue is resolved and wants a collective leadership. He threatens to take this to court if there is no collective leadership

Juppé says he is ready to become leader while the issue is resolved, but only if both sides are fine.

Jeff tells people to shut up and is "daring" Fillon to take this issue to an internal commission for irregularities etc

[Hash]

Do the courts have jurisdiction over party primaries? Also, if it does go to an internal commission, what would their verdict most likely be?

I don't know if the courts have any jurisdiction over party primaries; this was regulated by party bylaws and organized by the local federations, so I don't really know if the courts could intervene in this. They would need to force an internal party commission to change its results or something.

[Hash]

Also, the Cocoe itself has basically lost all legitimacy if they did indeed forget to count over 1300 votes. The party apparatus itself is firmly controlled by Jeff and his goons, so make of that what you will. They'd love for Fillon to take this to the "commission de recours" because they could investigate fraud in Estrosian Nice; but Fillon's case is not fraud but rather the issue that they just *forgot* to count over 1300 votes!

[Hash]

OH MY F**KING GOD.

I can't believe they did this for real.

Is there any hope left for Fillon?

Fillon has said he doesn't want to be president anymore; I think he realized that they're both damaged goods by now (Jeff probably moreso because he's pissed off half the party) but his goal now is to oust Jeff.

BBF; if you read this thread - un lien vers l'ensemble des résultats par fédé? Ce parti de merde n'est même pas capable produire les résultats officiels par fédération!

[Hash]

I'm so sad and desperate, you can't imagine...

Oh, I understand, I perfectly know how I would have felt if Topp won the NDP leadership race instead of Mulcair.

There are no comparisons. If Topp had won, he would have won free and fair. Jeff didn't actually win, but his goons and his tools in the Cocoe frauded the results (in the same way they'd do it in Russia) and effectively disenfranchised over 1300 voters by not counting their votes. This is disgusting, even if you're a honest person who supports Cope (if such people exist); Topp vs Mulcair is only a case of a run of the mill leadership race with passion on both sides while this is a case of massive vote rigging.

[Hash]

Can someone tell me what the different UMP "movements" stand for? I know the Droite Populaire is the right-wing Copeist faction, but what do those others mean?

Droite forte: a fraud based on the vague but powerful notion of 'Sarkozysm' and the 'Sarkozy generation' of the right; basically a shameless attempt by two young and ambitious grubby opportunists to further their own careers by attaching themselves to whatever the flying hell 'Sarkozysm' actually is. It also serves as a slightly less controversial version of the Droite pop, given that it has basically copied its reactionary and nativist ideology. Its main leader is Guillaume Peltier, aged 36, who was in the FN (and briefly MNR) until 2000 before joining Philippe de Villiers' MPF and quickly becoming one of the few 'talents' in the personalist and talent-less MPF. He joined the UMP in 2009, for reasons probably connected to his electoral failures for the MPF in Tours in 2007 and 2008. During the Sarko2012 campaign, he was fairly high in the campaign apparatus with the likes of Patrick Buisson. The other leader of this media-savvy fraud is Geoffroy Didier, a 36 yr old regional councillor who formerly defined himself as a "sarkozyste de gauche" but has basically transformed into a Droite pop-type reactionary.
I'm biased, but this joke represents all that is wrong with politics in general these days. It's driven entirely by image, flashy phrases/slogans and shameless opportunism (considering in 2007 that villieriste Peltier said he preferred Valls to Sarko...). It's also a good reminder that young right-wingers in France are the scum of the earth.
The motion was backed by Bernard Accoyer, Brice Hortefeux, Édouard Courtial, Pierre Charon and Jean Sarkozy (who is also a good example of why young right-wingers are HPs). Heavily Copeiste

Droite sociale: predominantly Filloniste faction led by Laurent Wauquiez. Wauquiez's big thing is the 'defense of middle-classes' and 'la lutte contre l'assistanat' (basically a right-wing catchphrase which is roughly translated to 'fighting welfare dependency'; I guess a French equivalent of 'welfare queens'). This might seem very neoliberal and all, but Wauquiez's faction is defined as being moderate and in the tradition of social Gaullism (with its concern for social issues - in the French use of the term and less previleged people) and christian democracy; but at the same time his crusade against l'assistanat can help him win support on the right. Wauquiez probably hates Cope by now, but he does not owe Fillon anything and he has his own ambitions: 2017 (or 2022) and he is a rather capable politician, who can win a primary by tacking right but campaign in the centre.
Key backers included Brigitte Barèges, Caroline Cayeux, Dino Cinieri, Isabelle Debré or Pierre Morel-A-L'Huissier

France moderne et humaniste: predominantly Copeiste but otherwise centrist/liberal faction led by Jean-Pierre Raffarin (now with a very mavericky, centrist UDFiste reputation), Luc Chatel and Hervé Novelli (two prominent right-wing liberals). It wants to be, basically, the UDF faction for a party which is largely dominated by the former RPR; so an alliance of social Gaullists/christian dems/centrists/liberals/radicals. Despite this centrist platform, it is led by Copeistes - notably Raffarin, who hates Fillon largely because Fillon rarely hesitates to use Raffarin's disastrous PM term as an example of how the right sucked in the Chirac years. Chatel and Novelli are two prominent right-wing liberals; Novelli was the leader of "The Reformers" liberal club.
Key backers included Raffarin, Novelli, Chatel, Jean Leonetti (Filloniste, non-Borlooiste Radical), Marc-Philippe Daubresse (Copeiste), Michèle Tabarot (Copeiste), Marc Laffineur (Copeiste), Hervé Mariton, Franck Riester (Cope's tool) but also Dominique Bussereau, Christophe Béchu, Claude Goasguen, Sébastien Huyghe

Le Gaullisme, une voie d’avenir pour la France: obligatory Gaullist thing for people who think that Gaullism actually means anything in 2012. Main leaders include Michèle Alliot-Marie (chiraquien), Patrick Ollier (chiraquien, pro-Fillon), Henri Guaino (séguiniste eurosceptic, Copeiste), Roger Karoutchi (séguiniste, Copeiste).

Droite populaire: Most well known faction, it is the right-wing nationalist/socially conservative/anti-immigration/FN lite/quasi-nativist/reactionary faction which doesn't like brown people and Muslims and loves the flag, the wine, the white Christian French civilization and all that good stuff. Top leaders are Thierry Mariani and Lionnel Luca. Heavily Copeiste (though Jacques Myard backed Fillon iirc; and Claude Guéant who is unofficially droite pop did too); the Droite forte sapped it of much support and media access (medias just love these 'young' 'up n coming' politicians who are nothing but stupid mindless hacks or drones).

La Boîte à idées: vague motion without ideology besides some type of internal debate/democracy; it is also anti-Droite Forte. It did have many big backers: Benoist Apparu, Arnaud Danjean, Hervé Gaymard, Chantal Jouanno, Bruno Le Maire with support from Edouard Balladur, Xavier Bertrand and Alain Juppé. So it was a major flop.

Might have missed some details, didn't really read much into them (too much BS).

[Hash]

"France Moderne et Humaniste" won Alpes-Maritimes? LOL. Must be some local baron, I guess.

I hope Fabien gives us an analysis of this as well, when things will be a bit more settled.

Jean Leonetti, the Filloniste non-Borlooiste Radical deputy/mayor of Antibes and Michèle Tabarot, Jeff's local nitwit (ex-DL, deputy/mayor of Le Cannet).

The PS' internal maps are similar, in some cases the gap between neighboring departments are even larger (the PS has more experience with internal fraud/vote rigging and criminal barons).

[Hash]

Lionel Tardy, one of the main Filloniste MPs, on itélé:

La messe est dîte

Now it seems sure that we gonna create a new parliamentary group with the 134 other MPs supporting Fillon.

François Fillon would announce the official decision on Tuesday.

So yeah, Copé keeps the official UMP (well, what's left of it), and the split of the parliamentary group could be the 1st step to a new party, 'the last 'Gaulliste' breath'.

lol, Copé camp guys keeping saying, 'let's wait what the appeal will say!'...

So Fillon is really leaving? And he's taking 2/3 of MPs with him? That's wonderful news if true.

Unless Jeff's allies all hate him now, that makes no sense because only 84 MPs and 71 Senators endorsed Fillon. And I doubt that every single one of them will be keen on leaving the UMP.

This article, by Laurent de Boissieu, who is the only journalist who knows what the hell he's talking about is interesting and people should read him instead of reading the overpaid idiots who do the other newspapers (he also understands how the financing stuff works, unlike everybody else):  http://www.ipolitique.fr/archive/2012/11/24/fillon-scission-ump.html

[Hash]

Ah, so they made no effort to appear even remotely legit.

Of course Fillonistas rigged the Alpes-Maritimes, but if anybody thinks Jeff didn't steal any department, then I've got a beachfront property to sell you in Soweto.

[Hash]

Amusingly, however, Pierre Frogier, who is the only R-UMP parliamentarian (senator) from NC backed Jeff, not Fillon.

[Hash]

RUMP, while a funny acronym in itself to an anglophone, is the most absurd name for a political group ever (when translated): The Rally for a Union for a Popular Movement.

The name is "Rassemblement-UMP", not "Rassemblement pour l'UMP". It literally means "Rally-UMP" and like it has been been noted, it is the name of the New Caledonian branch of the UMP which could provide the Fillonistes with access to public financing if they so choose. The party took that name in around 2002, prior to that it had been the RPCR (Rassemblement pour la Calédonie dans la République) and it retained the Rassemblement for some reason.

I'm still not sure why Fillon won New Caledonia. The local party has been split since it lost the legislative elections, but it appears that both faction leaders (Pierre Frogier and Gael Yanno) backed Jeff but now Frogier appears pissed that the Conare cancelled their results.

[Hash]

If there's a revote I'm fairly sure Fillon will win- and probably not by a recount margin either.

Copé wants to remain as party leader during the vote, which the Fillonistas will never accept (for good reason), so in the unlikely hypothesis that there was a revote and Jeff remained in charge, he would likely manage to rig the vote like he effectively rigged the first vote. This whole vote on the vote is a joke and a terribly retarded idea, the UMP is becoming a joke party very quickly.

[Hash]

Group declaration: http://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2012/11/27/la-liste-des-parlementaires-ayant-rallie-le-groupe-rassemblement-ump_1796739_823448.html

68 members.

[Hash]

Can someone make me a map showing Ump and Rump deputees' districts?

Yeah, I'll make one.

[Hash]

Here's the current map of parliamentary groups, with R-UMP included



to compare to the map of endorsements

[Hash]

The Fillonistas said they would remain attached with the UMP for the second fraction of party financing earlier today, but that seems to have been before Jeff pulled the plug and told them to get get f-ed. I hope they break all bridges... if only because it'd be fun to see a Balkanized right.

[Hash]

3 extra members for the RUMP: Valerie Boyer, Guy Teissier (both from Marseille and both pretty conservative) and Marcel Bonnot (Doubs, seems liberalish).

The "non-aligned" motion is a big smokescreen. As Laurent de Boissieu pointed out, besides the 33 'real' neutrals you have 12 soft or late fillonistes (Bertrand, Accoyer, Apparu, Douillet - plus amusingly 3 RUMP deputies who signed a text calling for the unity of AN group...) and 27 copeistes (Luca, Guaino, Le Fur, Balkany)...
ftr: http://nkm-blog.org/appel-a-lunite-de-notre-famille-politique/

[Hash]

The Fillonistas published this... interesting... picture:

[Hash]

They're still negotiating over who leads the party for now... and I assume that the anger over what happened translates to a Fillon victory.

Who wins probably depends on who controls the party machine by September. If Copé's stooges control the party and the COCOE/CONARE as they currently do, then I have as much faith in this being a fair election as I do in Chechnya having a fair election.

the old bonapartist spirit of the French right will probably have prevailed...

Somebody read my big post or something?!