French UMP leadership election, 2012

[Zanas]

The right-wing monolithic party created by Jacques Chirac in 2002 is currently running its first time competitive leadership election. The election is for the office of President of the party, which was vacant under the 5-year term of Nicolas Sarkozy as President of France.

Vote will happen on November 18th, and is reserved to UMP enlisted members. Still, it accounts for a potential of around 230,000 voters, and will be a test of how the right can handle a mediatic voting process as well as the center-left PS succeeded a year ago.

For the first time, voting will also choose between platforms, which may or may not result in the installation of official wings of the party. As of now, there are clubs or groups, but not official wings.

According to plans, the winner here will not automatically be the nominee for the 2017 French Presidential election, when the UMP could or could not use an open primary process, but he certainly will have an edge in that.

After a number of "small or medium" candidates failed to gather the necessary signatures of 3% of the members (ca. 8,000), we're left with only two candidates :

-François Fillon, Prime Minister of Sarkozy from 2007 to 2012, several times minister before that, largely representing the quiet, moderate kind of right. He is the favourite in each and every poll. His assets are : he is seen as the contrary of Sarkozy, who just lost. He is seen as a better potential gatherer of ideologies, more mainstream centre-right which can steal appeal to parts of the hardcore right or even far-right. Plus he just served for five years as Prime Minister with relatively good support-levels as opposed to Sarkozy's, so he's got the "statesman stature". Main drawback : can be seen as a bit soft or shallow.

-Jean-François Copé, incumbent Secretary General of the party (ie. de facto leader), has been minister and government spokesman but a while ago. He is seen as more of the energetic, dynamic and somewhat erratic kind of right, more appealing to hardcore and far right supporters. Main assets : he has had the control over the party logistics for a while now, so he basically organizes the election and knows every influent middle executives of the party. Plus he is seen as energetic, the only item in which he defeats Fillon in polls, and he's the underdog so he has nothing to lose. Drawbacks : he is seen as too much a clone of Sarkozy, which is kind of embarrassing right now (could not be the same in 2016 though...), and he continually fails to extend his support towards the centre-right and the centre.

For now, we didn't have many polls rolling in, but they've all been between 65-35 and 75-25 in favor of Fillon. We will have at least one televised debate but I don't think the date's been announced so far. Generally, the media treats Fillon as the future winner, and their favourite.

The outcome will depend on which departemental federations will have which turnout, how much the debate and the last month of media campaigning will affect voters. We could expect a narrower outcome, but few can see Copé winning in the end for now.

See this blog for more information, made by our fellow Atlas member big bad fab.

[Zanas]

A new poll OpinionWay shows that Fillon is preferred among right-wing voters. This poll doesn't give voting intentions, rather preferences on several issues or affirmations.

Fillon-Copé
35-15 "capable of leading UMP to victory in local elections of 2014"
32-17 "embodies the future of the right-wing"
32-16 "faithful to Sarkozy's legacy" (which is a severe blow for Copé that tries so hard to be viewed as Sarkozy's legitimate heir)
39-11 "able to unite all the right-wing voters"
29-13 "embodies the right-wing values"
24-10 "has a project for the right-wing"
37-21 "would be a good opposition leader"
Copé leads in the following :
24-26 "embodies the right-wing's renewal"
18-23 "is close to the UMP members and activists" (remember Copé is the present Secretary General of the party)
15-31 "modern"
16-37 "dynamic"

That means right-wing voters want a soft and kinda old-school leader to unite their side for the middle-term elections. This could not be the same man they will need to win in 2017 though...

[Zanas]

You know as well as I do how many people they'd need to call in order to build a large enough sample of UMP actual members. So it's true we have no choice but to take those figures, and they might not give us a good picture of what is really going on inside (though I guess it's a pretty accurate one nevertheless).

[Zanas]

This election is tonight. THe first results are coming in. Once again, polls have shown that measuring UMP voters to predict a result within UMP actual members was not a good idea.

The result seems to be sharp-razor-thin, whereas every poll had Fillon at around 60-65 for Copé's 35-40. The largest federations are still to be called.

To be continued...

[Zanas]

This is sooooooo good. As a left-wing that is to say.

Copé called victory. Fillon called a 224 votes lead, but to be validated by the electoral internal commission. Both sides are calling electoral fraud on the other.

It's sweet. Plus, Copé being elected would be the one and only chance of Hollande to have any hope whatsoever in the future...

[Zanas]

Royal-Aubry 2.0.

Yeah pretty much. But the right isn't used to that, so it could leave some deeper scars with them.

[Zanas]

lol, the French right is becoming more humourous than the French left.

To be fair, they have both been steadily laughable for some time now...

[Zanas]

Very little actual chances, because of the public funding of parties' rules.

Anyway, if there was, I would call them RPR and UDF...

[Zanas]

If there's a revote I'm fairly sure Fillon will win- and probably not by a recount margin either.

Copé wants to remain as party leader during the vote, which the Fillonistas will never accept (for good reason), so in the unlikely hypothesis that there was a revote and Jeff remained in charge, he would likely manage to rig the vote like he effectively rigged the first vote. This whole vote on the vote is a joke and a terribly retarded idea, the UMP is becoming a joke party very quickly.

I agree with you on that, but you got to admit it's also somewhat of a tricky move for Fillon to dodge... It's the kind of shot that forces your opponent to really work on his passing-shot.

Of course, politically, Fillon cannot accept such nonsense. But in the opinion and the media, Copé succeeds in appearing a bit more compromising with this proposal, and effectively manages to throw the ball back in Fillon's camp, as the media and the opinion won't see this for what it is : bullsh**t.

[Zanas]

I don't think Fillon really keeps a shot at the nomination in 2017 : he lost too much energy in this, and was a bit passive, he had to have his "troops" do a ot of the work, and French people just love their man of action, even if it means rigging elections and what not. I don't even know if he still would want  anymore, since I would think this whole thing might have disgusted him a little.

Don't hope too much about Juppé, he'llnot be running even if there was another vote, he's too old for this sh**t and has pretty much told that last week.

But it could be the perfect time for a "newcomer" (well, our beloved "quadras" who are often "quinquas"...) to steal the day. NKM has been a bit off with her calls, sometimes I just thought she was looking a bit childish. The one we haven't heard much about, who is very close to being the new "best among us", is... Le Maire. He's my favorite, since I once heard him a full hour on France Culture talking about philosophy, literature, culture etc. I never heard him say a "bigger than him bullsh**t" (maybe he has, though), but in any other scenario he would not stand a chance, as French people don't like politicians which they can well see are way smarter than them...

But in this scenario, who knows ?