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Author Topic: Calm down everyone.  (Read 4429 times)
Oakvale
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« on: October 04, 2012, 09:46:30 am »
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I saw the debate last night - Romney was well-prepared, Obama clearly didn't want to be there - can't blame him, mind, it was his anniversary - and it's pretty clear that Romney "won".

More to the point, the media's been itching to move on from the stale "Romney's finished!" narrative and on to a much more exciting "it's a close race now!" one - even if Romney hadn't turned in a better performance, just holding his own on stage with the President would give him a decent bump and some favourable news cycles.

The debate was "do or die" for Romney, and he saved his campaign, but let's not act as if this is some amazing game changer. If Romney had lost the debate, he'd be finished, as is he's still in the race. That's undeniably good news for Romney, but I don't think it changes the fundamental picture of the election.

Republicans and Democrats, relax. Republicans - Romney had a polished performance, but didn't have any "Reaganesque" quips, and, Democrats -  Obama had a flat performance, but didn't make any gaffes and didn't lose any voters.

I'm rambling a bit, but I can't really handle the chaos around here today. Wink

2012 board after the debate:

« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 09:59:25 am by Oakvale »Logged
Oakvale
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2012, 09:52:40 am »
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I haven't seen people overreact this much to a single ultimately irrelevant event since Sarah Palin was picked as McCain's running mate.
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VP Duke
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2012, 09:54:33 am »
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McCain unleashing Sarah Palin certainly was relevant, just in ways we could have never imagined when he picked her. Tongue
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Oakvale
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2012, 09:55:33 am »
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McCain unleashing Sarah Palin certainly was relevant, just in ways we could have never imagined when he picked her. Tongue

Heh, fair point. I think I'm going to tune out politics until the dust settles.
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White Light
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2012, 09:57:59 am »
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Actually such overreaction to an irrelevant event occurred just the day before with that non-issue "tape" that was "released" (after being out for five years).
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Quote from: someone on AAD
Option 3: he flipped his vote when he realized that the female preacher with the full sleeve tattoos who he fantasizes about domming him was a Sanders supporter Tongue  Hey, whatever gets him closer to those feet I guess.
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2012, 09:59:24 am »
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Think of it this way. A two point boost would be at the higher end of the expecations game. It's enough to cut Obama's national lead but he still leads. It's enough to secure Romney in North Carolina and probably enough to flip Florida and possibly Virginia. However the landscape would still favour Obama and would still be less favourable for Romney than it was this time last month at the end of the RNC.

Any bounce has to last. But first we have to see if there is one.
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VP Duke
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2012, 10:05:48 am »
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Think of it this way. A two point boost would be at the higher end of the expecations game. It's enough to cut Obama's national lead but he still leads. It's enough to secure Romney in North Carolina and probably enough to flip Florida and possibly Virginia. However the landscape would still favour Obama and would still be less favourable for Romney than it was this time last month at the end of the RNC.

Any bounce has to last. But first we have to see if there is one.

Like Kerry had to do, Romney will have to keep the pressure on Obama and beat him again in the second debate. If he lets Obama back in it, Obama wins because he still have a built in advantage.
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2012, 10:09:01 am »
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Just to tune in from Old Europe, and France in particular, our media seldom speaks about the election for now, and this morning they did to tell that Romney had won the first debate and repeat that CNN poll 67-25. It's clear though that they want the public here to believe it is a close race, and will only communicate on "game-changing" moments, real or putative.

Last time they speaked about it was the whole Romney insulting 47% of the population thing.

Ah and they also only ever talk about nationwide polls, which reinforces the illusion of a tight race for the French electorate used to winning by popular vote. For us, a 49 to 46 race, which I believe is more or less the state of the race nationwide today, seems to be a quite close race.
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IN NATE WE TRUST
Quote from: Zanas46
There's absolutely nothing wrong with reporting a poll with decimals or even lesser digits once you know how to properly use margins of error. Of course an overwhelming part of the public doesn't, which is why polls shouldn't be reported with decimals in the media, but we're a knowledgeable bunch, are we not ?

My French blog
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« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2012, 12:27:52 pm »
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I don't know... usually when you have to say something's "not a game-changer," there's at least some validity to the claims that they are.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #9 on: October 04, 2012, 12:41:43 pm »
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Well, game changer is a vauge term.  I agree wholeheartedly that everything is being blown completely out of proportion.

In a way this was a game change in that the situation has changed.  Romney's campaign is no longer in danger of collapsing and Obama doesn't look quite as unstoppable.  On the other hand, the fundamentals of the race are the same.  The economy sucks but is slowly recovering, Romney is unlikabe, Obama is very likable, etc..  Obama still has the advantage overall. 
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« Reply #10 on: October 04, 2012, 12:44:20 pm »
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Right now, Republicans are bordering on getting overconfident and close to believing that the election is over because of one debate, while ignoring that there are other debates left. Obama isn't going to do the same thing twice, especially not with almost two weeks to the next debate.
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« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2012, 12:58:35 pm »
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Well, game changer is a vauge term.  I agree wholeheartedly that everything is being blown completely out of proportion.

In a way this was a game change in that the situation has changed.  Romney's campaign is no longer in danger of collapsing and Obama doesn't look quite as unstoppable.  On the other hand, the fundamentals of the race are the same.  The economy sucks but is slowly recovering, Romney is unlikabe, Obama is very likable, etc..  Obama still has the advantage overall. 

I would actually say that Voters have been looking for an viable alternative to Obama all year, and Romney has now given voters hope for an alternative.  The pieces have always been in place for a Romney victory, but no one was sure about the leader to put them all together.  Romney appears to be someone "who can Save America" and the polls next week will show Romney tied or leading Obama in the swing states. 

As long as Romney keeps up his A game for the next month, he will win the election.
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« Reply #12 on: October 04, 2012, 01:18:41 pm »
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I saw the debate last night - Romney was well-prepared, Obama clearly didn't want to be there - can't blame him, mind, it was his anniversary - and it's pretty clear that Romney "won".

More to the point, the media's been itching to move on from the stale "Romney's finished!" narrative and on to a much more exciting "it's a close race now!" one - even if Romney hadn't turned in a better performance, just holding his own on stage with the President would give him a decent bump and some favourable news cycles.

The debate was "do or die" for Romney, and he saved his campaign, but let's not act as if this is some amazing game changer. If Romney had lost the debate, he'd be finished, as is he's still in the race. That's undeniably good news for Romney, but I don't think it changes the fundamental picture of the election.

Republicans and Democrats, relax. Republicans - Romney had a polished performance, but didn't have any "Reaganesque" quips, and, Democrats -  Obama had a flat performance, but didn't make any gaffes and didn't lose any voters.

I'm rambling a bit, but I can't really handle the chaos around here today. Wink

2012 board after the debate:



1+.

Obama thought "I'll give him this one but he better enjoy it because i'll kick his ass in the next 2 debates"
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Fritz
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« Reply #13 on: October 04, 2012, 01:21:33 pm »
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Why is this stickied?
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Yank2133
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« Reply #14 on: October 04, 2012, 01:26:53 pm »
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CALM DOWN......WE AREN"T GOING TO CALM DOWN!

Nah, but seriously. Obama had a bad performance, but internal polling shows that he didn't lose any support, which is what Romney has to do at this point to win(peel off support from Obama).

Great night for Romney though, he breathed new life into his campaign and there is now absolute no chance of a blowout.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: October 04, 2012, 01:41:45 pm »
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It's over, Romney will be the next president. Better come to terms with it now than be heartbroken early Wednesday morning when Ohio is called for Mittens.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2012, 02:04:54 pm by Lief »Logged

Grumps
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« Reply #16 on: October 04, 2012, 02:04:06 pm »
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Michael Moore's twitter account needs to calm down...lol
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2012, 02:18:41 pm »
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Moore does have a point. Sure Kerry has experience and even won Presidential debates. However, he isn't a good fit for Romney and I doubt he was able to study Romney the way Portman has studied Obama. Romney clearly was better prepared last night. I doubt Kerry has been able to get Romney's aggressive style and likely Kerry hasn't been as blatant at stretching the truth. Obama didn't seem prepared for Romney to say things like his tax plan doesn't cost $5T or his health plan will cover pre-existing conditions. You can tell from Team Obama's reaction today, focusing on these 'fact checks' that they didnt have Obama ready to do that kind of fact checking in the debate itself

One thing is for sure. If Romney lost last night it was over. he would have lost donors, enthusiasm. He was toast. Now he is back in it.
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Vosem
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« Reply #18 on: October 04, 2012, 02:22:24 pm »
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Obama thought "I'll give him this one but he better enjoy it because i'll kick his ass in the next 2 debates"

Er...that makes no goddamn sense.
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abcd
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« Reply #19 on: October 04, 2012, 03:17:27 pm »
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Why didn't they hire an expert for debate prep and not John Kerry?
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #20 on: October 04, 2012, 03:33:47 pm »
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Why is this stickied?
Yeah, seriously. This has absolutely no right to be stickied, not any more than some random "Romney's ahead now!" post would be. Can a mod bring the down the Professionalism Hammer on this one?

As to the point, yeah, it's true that this isn't revolutionary, but the comparative performances were a great surprise in one of three often very important events. I'm not terribly surprised that a 2012 election board hence has a lot to say about it.
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“The meaning of life is not to be discovered only after death in some hidden, mysterious realm; on the contrary, it can be found by eating the succulent fruit of the Tree of Life and by living in the here and now as fully and creatively as we can”

~~~~Dr. Paul Kurtz (1925-2012)
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« Reply #21 on: October 04, 2012, 03:38:20 pm »
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It's absolutely absurd that this is stickied.
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« Reply #22 on: October 04, 2012, 03:46:31 pm »
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If Romney doesn't gain in the polls as a result of these debates it will be a very bad sign for Romney after such an effort.
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Oakvale
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« Reply #23 on: October 04, 2012, 03:46:40 pm »
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Why is this stickied?
Yeah, seriously. This has absolutely no right to be stickied, not any more than some random "Romney's ahead now!" post would be. Can a mod bring the down the Professionalism Hammer on this one?

As to the point, yeah, it's true that this isn't revolutionary, but the comparative performances were a great surprise in one of three often very important events. I'm not terribly surprised that a 2012 election board hence has a lot to say about it.
It's absolutely absurd that this is stickied.

lol
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R2D2
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« Reply #24 on: October 04, 2012, 03:47:57 pm »
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God bless this thread.
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