Nate Silver predicts 2.2 point bounce for Romney

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/04/oct-3-romneys-electoral-challenge-and-more-on-debate-instant-polls

[Likely Voter]

That sounds about right. In terms of the map that would move FL into the Romney column (joining NC). VA, CO and IA would have small Obama leads but could be possible pickups if undecideds break for Romney. However, Obama would still have a good leads in his 'firewall' of OH+WI+NV+NH. Romney needs another big win to push the race into his favor and that likely wont be the VP debate or the foreign policy debate. So the Town Hall debate could decide the election.

[Antonio the Sixth]

That's a bit more subtle than that. The regression points toward a 2.2 points bounce, but R² is only 0.1 (which means that only 10% of the post-debate variation is statistically correlated with the instant polls).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not trying to minimize or anything, of course. I think 2.2 is a reasonable prediction. But it could be much bigger or it could be nothing at all.