Improbable but possible Electoral College Outcomes

[sentinel]

I was playing around with my popular (and electoral) vote simulator, and I came up with two improbable but possible electoral college outcomes. Voter turnout numbers are averaged between 2004 and 2008.

Note: The colors in this are just used to distinguish two candidates, they do not represent parties.


Scenario A:

Candidate Red completely sweeps the 11 states to win, wins 99-1 of the vote in these states. Candidate Blue wins the popular vote 51-49 in all the other states.

Outcome:

Candidate Red: 270 Electoral Votes, 97,768,706 popular votes (76.17%)

Candidate Blue - 268 Electoral Votes, 30,583,578 popular votes (23.83%)

Scenario A is vastly more fair than Scenario B.

Scenario B:

In this scenario, Candidate Red wins 51-49 in the 11 largest states needed to win. On the other hand, Candidate Blue wins 99-1 in every other state.

Candidate Red - 270 Electoral Votes, 36,147,756 popular votes (28.16%)

Candidate Blue - 268 Electoral Votes,  92,229,778 popular votes (71.84%)

Scenario B is vastly more unfair obviously because of the 43 point margin in the popular vote favoring the loser of the electoral college.

Both scenarios are extremely unlikely but statistically possible.

[Vosem]

What might be interesting is if there were two serious third-party candidates who tied for the third spot in the HoR, creating a constitutional crisis (as only three candidates can go on to the HoR). Here's an adjusted 1980 (with Anderson and Clark deciding to concentrate all their firepower on very small states to throw the election to the HoR, and Reagan very narrowly winning the PV):

Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale 268
Ronald Reagan/George Bush 264
John Anderson/Patrick Lucey 3 (VT)
Edward Clark/David Koch 3 (AK)

[sentinel]

I had a scenario in my head where there is a 3 way race, and the person who wins the popular vote wins zero electoral votes. Basically coming in a close second in every state while the first place winners switch off.

[sentinel]

Scenario C

States are split between the two candidates recieving electoral votes by letter. First half the alphabet, second half.

In this scenario, we have Candidate Blue who wins the popular vote. Candidate Blue comes in second place in every state and does not secure a majority in any state. Candidates Red and Green switch coming in second and third depending on the state.

Candidate Blue - 0 Electoral Votes, 35% Popular Vote, 44,932,074 popular votes.
Candidate Green - 276 Electoral Votes, 32.61% Popular Vote, 41,871,956 popular votes.
Candidate Red - 263 Electoral Votes, 32.38% Popular Vote, 41,573,324 popular votes.

[Scenario D:] With tweaking, it is very easy for Candidate Green to come in last place in the popular vote and still win the electoral college.

[sentinel]

What might be interesting is if there were two serious third-party candidates who tied for the third spot in the HoR, creating a constitutional crisis (as only three candidates can go on to the HoR). Here's an adjusted 1980 (with Anderson and Clark deciding to concentrate all their firepower on very small states to throw the election to the HoR, and Reagan very narrowly winning the PV):

It would be interesting to see the outcome of that,well,how they handle it.

[Kitteh]

I had a scenario in my head where there is a 3 way race, and the person who wins the popular vote wins zero electoral votes. Basically coming in a close second in every state while the first place winners switch off.

Somewhat similar to this...

A couple days ago I posted this in the "Random Maps thread":

Wallace 33.53
Nixon 33.42
Humphrey 32.72

Wallace 155
Nixon 227
Humphrey 156

Despite winning the popular vote by a hair, George Wallace comes in third in the electoral college because of poor vote distribution (failing to win a single non-southern state).

(A uniform national swing of the 1968 election, -10% from both Humphrey and Nixon and +20% to Wallace)

In this scenario, if you subtract 0.31% of the vote from Nixon and add 0.31% of the vote to Humphrey, that puts Humphrey in second and Nixon in third in the popular vote, but doesn't change the outcome in any state.

So in that scenario, Nixon would finish third in the popular vote but first the in electoral college, and the candidate that finished first in the popular vote would finish third in the electoral college.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm trying to imagine how you might get close to this in real life.  This is a vaguely plausible Julian Castro/D governor of GA vs. Scott Brown/pro-choice R Governor of IL map where Castro is running away with the PV but losing the electoral college:

 

[sentinel]

Yeah, it would have to be someone from the midwest running as a more conservative Democrat, while you have a moderate to liberal Republican who isn't particularly attractive to southern voters.