2008: No Obama and Hillary, Front-runner John Edwards
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  2008: No Obama and Hillary, Front-runner John Edwards
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Author Topic: 2008: No Obama and Hillary, Front-runner John Edwards  (Read 5247 times)
Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #25 on: October 07, 2012, 02:22:08 PM »

"We have a trio of primaries today, and two of them go to frontrunner Feingold: D.C. by over 80%, and Maryland by a hair. Maryland is a significant win for Feingold because it proves he can win outside of the west (even though Florida seemed to already prove that). It's also a hit on Bayh, due to the fact he made a serious campaign over there. Never the less, inspite of an insurgent Feingold campaign heading to Virginia, he still places third in the state, with Bayh taking the cake in that state. This just goes to show that the race isn't finished yet." - Chris Matthews



D.C.:
Russ Feingold: 87.32%
Bill Richardson: 12.68%

Maryland:
Russ Feingold: 39.85%
Evan Bayh: 38.24%
Bill Richardson: 21.91%



Virginia:
Evan Bayh: 42.89%
Bill Richardson: 29.43%
Russ Feingold: 27.68%

A week later...

"There is one surprise and one not. Feingold wins Wisconsin with over 80% of the vote. This isn't a surpise, but you know what is surprising? Feingold only wins Hawaii by one point. Bill Richardson, deciding not to be unheard, makes a serious campaign stop there, and the people of Hawaii seemed to really connect with him when he stopped there, being the only candidate to even make the effort." - Rachel Maddow



Wisconsin:
Russ Feingold: 82.89%
Bill Richardson: 10.52%
Evan Bayh: 6.59%

Hawaii:
Russ Feingold: 46.28%
Bill Richardson: 44.82%
Evan Bayh: 8.90%



Delegates:
Russ Feingold: 890.5
Bill Richardson: 672.5
Evan Bayh: 626.5

"The race is still tight... there won't be a clear presumptive nominee until, at the earliest, March 4th. Texas and Ohio are looking lean Bayh, and if Bayh wins them, then the primaries continue, since he has a delegate deficit of about 270 from the leader of the race right now, Russ Feingold. If Richardson manages to win ONE of the states, then Richardson becomes a strong contender, and if Bayh drops out and endorses Richardson, than the race can get really interesting. However, If Feingold manages to pull a win out of Ohio, then it is all over. Feingold is the nominee after that point.

National Polls:
Russ Feingold: 34%
Evan Bayh: 33%
Bill Richardson: 30%
Undecided: 3%

Ohio:
Evan Bayh: 32%
Russ Feingold: 31%
Bill Richardson: 30%
Undecided: 7%

Texas:
Evan Bayh: 40%
Bill Richardson: 39%
Russ Feingold: 15%
Undecided: 6%

Vermont:
Russ Feingold: 60%
Bill Richardson: 25%
Evan Bayh: 5%
Undecided: 10%

Rhode Island:
Russ Feingold: 50%
Bill Richardson: 39%
Evan Bayh: 5%
Undecided: 6%
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: October 07, 2012, 02:31:43 PM »

Bayh-Feingold '08. Richardson's dirty dealings would kill the party's chances in November.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #27 on: October 07, 2012, 03:17:32 PM »

Decisive Day

"First, the New England results. In a result that was predicted by the polls that was unfortunate for the Richardson campaign, come the only two states that voted against him in New England. Rhode Island and Vermont go to Russ Feingold."



Vermont:
Russ Feingold: 62.57%
Bill Richardson: 27.34%
Evan Bayh: 10.09%

Rhode Island:
Russ Feingold: 53.48%
Bill Richardson: 32.82%
Evan Bayh: 14.70%

"Next is Texas, where Bayh not only clears fifty, but Richardson is below 40... a shocking blow to his campaign." - Wolf Blitzer



Texas:
Evan Bayh: 50.21%
Bill Richardson: 38.45%
Russ Feingold: 11.34%

"Finally, in Ohio, amongst a challenging three battle between the candidates, the winner in the state is Feingold!"



Ohio:
Russ Feingold: 35.45%
Evan Bayh: 35.20%
Bill Richardson: 29.35%

"Now, while Feingold has won his goal state of Ohio, there is still an issue: He got below 15% of the vote in Texas. This is where Bayh could grasp on Feingolds weakness among non-Democrats. Since Richardson's miserable performance in Texas, clear third place in Ohio, and two huge losses in an area where he was considered strong, he is no longer considered a serious candidate. If Richardson were to withdraw at this point, it would be a much more pointed choice, with Richardson being the king maker."




Delegates:
Russ Feingold: 963.5
Evan Bayh: 798.5
Bill Richardson: 797.5
Unallocated: 232
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: October 07, 2012, 03:20:48 PM »

How are the relationships between the three candidates?
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #29 on: October 07, 2012, 03:26:20 PM »


Bayh and Feingold are completely at odds, while Richardson kind of gets along with both but is also kind of distant, so that he probably would endorse the one with more delegates when it gets down to the wire.
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #30 on: October 08, 2012, 02:15:58 PM »

Bill Richardson withdraws from the Presidential, endorses Feingold.



"It's time we made some real changes in America. I thought that, by running for the nomination, I could help do that. Well, we made it farther than the pundits and the skeptics thought we would, but we still didn't get there. As a result, I will make an endorsement for the candidate I feel like would have the most impact on American politics in terms of change and moving us forward, and that candidate is Russ Feingold. However, both are very strong candidates, and its not my decision, its the peoples decision."



"Look, I know a lot of people are going to call me crazy... but I think Evan Bayh can still win this thing" - Joe Scarborough

"After the endorsement from Richardson? I highly doubt it!" - Mika Brzenzski

"Well, look, I don't think the Democrats are going to win by putting a far out leftist in there, and polls prove it. Bayh leads McCain by about 5-10 points in polls, but Feingold is tied and is even trailing McCain in some polls. Even with the delegate lag, I think Richardson's delegates, and other unallocated delegates, are going to make their choice with Bayh because he's easily more electable than Feingold. Of course, thats a big If, and in terms of money, Feingold has a large lead, so even with the close race, its going to be very tough for him to stay alive, but if he makes it to the end, he could surprisingly swipe the nomination from Feingold." - Joe Scarborough

National Polls:
Russ Feingold: 53%
Evan Bayh: 44%
Undecided: 3%

Mississippi:
Evan Bayh: 67%
Russ Feingold: 28%
Undecided: 5%

Wyoming:
Russ Feingold: 64%
Evan Bayh: 32%
Undecided: 4%

Pennsylvania:
Russ Feingold: 47%
Evan Bayh: 47%
Undecided: 6%

Indiana:
Evan Bayh: 56%
Russ Feingold: 36%
Undecided: 8%

North Carolina:
Evan Bayh: 50%
Russ Feingold: 42%
Undecided: 8%
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #31 on: October 10, 2012, 02:39:24 PM »

The Day Before Pennsylvania

As expected, Feingold wins Wyoming and Bayh win Mississippi by respectively large margins!



Wyoming:
Russ Feingold: 68.44%
Evan Bayh: 31.56%



Mississippi:
Evan Bayh: 62.83%
Russ Feingold: 37.17%



Overall Delegates:
Feingold: 20
Bayh: 25

Delegates:
Russ Feingold: 983.5
Evan Bayh: 823.5
Unallocated: 1029.5

"Today, it all depends on Pennsylvania. The winner of the Pennsylvania Primary will probably have the momentum to keep on and win the rest of the primaries without much of a fundraising challenge from the opponent. A loss in Pennsylvania would crush Evan Bayh. A loss in Pennsylvania for Feingold would be devastating, but not completely earth shattering, due to his lead in delegates at the moment and the fact that most of his fundraising is from adamant supporters who would keep funding him no matter what. Luckily, Polls favor Feingold for the moment being, but its still within the margin of error." - Chris Matthews

Pennsylvania Poll before Primary Day:
Russ Feingold: 49%
Evan Bayh: 47%
Undecided: 4%

North Carolina:
Evan Bayh: 48%
Russ Feingold: 44%
Undecided: 8%

Indiana:
Evan Bayh: 51%
Russ Feingold: 40%
Undecided: 9%

Presidential Polls w/Bayh:
Evan Bayh: 49%
John McCain: 44%
Undecided: 7%

Presidential Polls w/Feingold:
Russ Feingold: 45%
John McCain: 45%
Undecided: 10%
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #32 on: October 11, 2012, 06:59:12 PM »

Russ Feingold wins the Pennsylvania Primary!



Pennsylvania:
Russ Feingold: 54.5%
Evan Bayh: 45.5%

Bayh doesn't leave just yet, re-evaluating his campaign, focusing his resources on next two states!



"Unfortunately for Bayh, the polls have jumped in a way that is very unfavorable to this strategy. Feingold leads in both of the next primaries, even Bayh's home state. Now, while he is within the margin of error, and likely voters has Bayh at a much stronger standing, Feingold leads by as much as fifteen points in North Carolina, a surely unclimbable mountain at this point, especially considering his resources. Even West Virginia, where Bayh was leading Feingold by as much as 30 points, he's now down to a 2 point lead due to the devastating loss in Pennsylvania win. "

National Polls:
Russ Feingold: 60%
Evan Bayh: 37%
Undecided: 3%

Indiana:
Russ Feingold: 49%
Evan Bayh: 46%
Undecided: 5%

North Carolina:
Russ Feingold: 55%
Evan Bayh: 41%
Undecided: 4%

West Virginia:
Evan Bayh: 46%
Russ Feingold: 44%
Undecided: 10%

National Polls w/ Feingold:
Russ Feingold: 46%
John McCain: 44%
Undecided: 10%

National Polls w/ Bayh:
Evan Bayh: 48%
John McCain: 43%
Undecided: 9%
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #33 on: October 11, 2012, 07:04:43 PM »

We're gonna lose with Feingold as the nominee. Cry
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #34 on: October 11, 2012, 07:24:17 PM »

Indiana and North Carolina: The Downfall of Evan Bayh

"Evan Bayh made a plea to the people of Indiana and North Carolina and it worked. Now, of course, that depends on your definition of works. He was underpolling in his home state, but the speech turned it around and he wins in Indiana. Now, in North Carolina, Feingold's momentum was too strong, and he wins by twenty points. It looks like a night that, while it isn't embarrassing for Bayh, it's clearly no longer his time." - Wolf Blitzer



Indiana:
Evan Bayh: 52.43%
Russ Feingold: 47.57%



North Carolina:
Russ Feingold: 59.84%
Evan Bayh: 40.16%



Delegates:
Russ Feingold: 1172.5
Evan Bayh: 977.5
Unallocated: 1029.5



Bayh drops out, endorses Feingold

"Now look, I ran for a purpose. I ran because I feel like moderates in this country don't have a real voice, and I would provide that voice. However, I, at the same time, feel loyalty for my party. As a result, I can not tear this party apart any longer. I endorse Feingold because I know he is a good man and will do what is needed to be done for this country, even if we disagree on issues, sometimes highly. We must reverse the work of the previous administration!" - Bayh

National Polls:
Russ Feingold: 45%
John McCain: 45%
Undecided: 10%
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Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #35 on: October 13, 2012, 05:03:10 PM »

Top Considerations for Vice-President:

Tom Harkin (D), Senator from Iowa



Chuck Hagel (R), Senator from Nebraska




Evan Bayh (D), Senator from Indiana



Jack Reed (D), Senator from Rhode Island



Polls:
McCain/Unknown: 46%
Feingold/Harkin: 43%
Undecided: 11%



"Now, should Feingold pick Harkin, there are a lot of toss-up states, which is a positive, because with a strong campaign, Feingold could flip those states. However, McCain has the upper-hand in most of these states, so he will have to work hard to flip these, especially with to of the more liberal senators on the ticket.

Feingold/Hagel: 46%
McCain/Unknown: 44%
Undecided: 10%



"Now the Hagel pick is a very strong pick, particularly because Nebraska gets freed up, a state that Democrats wouldn't even think was avaliable with his pick. However, that also puts Pennsylvania and some other further east states deeply in risk of a McCain win, and should the ploy of One Republican, One Democrat fail, McCain could win big."


Feingold/Bayh: 47%
McCain/Unknwon: 44%
Undecided: 9%



"Now, Bayh is probably the strongest pick, mainly because he turns Indiana completely around, makes Pennsylvania more viable for the democrats, and makes even Georgia available due to Bayh's strong performance in the south during the primaries. However, a Bayh pick might seem unlikely, mainly because Feingold and Bayh didn't really get along on the campaign trail."

McCain/Unknown: 48%
Feingold/Reed: 42%
Undecided: 10%



"And the worst pick Feingold could make, in elecotoral terms, is easily Jack Reed. He only appeals to north easterners, something the democrats already have in the back, and by proxy, they turn everything into a McCain leaning toss-up. Even Oregon, Washington, and Michigan are only lean Democratic, a scary sight for 8 years of a Republican President who ends his term below 20% Approval."
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Warren 4 Secretary of Everything
Clinton1996
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« Reply #36 on: October 13, 2012, 05:11:56 PM »

He'll probably lose, but I think he should go outside the box.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #37 on: October 13, 2012, 09:49:33 PM »

McCain's not gonna win with President Bush on his back.
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