Massive movement towards Romney

[zorkpolitics]

Well considering the country is about 45% Democrat no matter what and 45% Republican no matter what the elections play out in the 10% that are be the swing voters. Thus against a background of a "massive movement".  Before the debates Romney was trailing nationally about 4% and in the swing states by 3 to 7%.  Here are the polls from the last 2 days
 
Nationally Today
Rasmussen ahead 49-47
Claris ahead 47-46  
Ipsos behind 44-46  (but RV)

And moving ahead in swing states:
Today
Gravis CO ahead 49-46
Wenzel Strategies OH ahead 48-47
PPP WI  behind 49-47 (but Romney was actually ahead of Obama the last day of polling)
Yesterday
We Ask America VA ahead 48-45
We Ask America FL ahead 49-46
We Ask America OH ahead 47-46
Rasmussen VA ahead 49-48
Rasmussen OH behind 49-50
McLaughlin CO ahead 50-46
Gravis NV behind 48-49

[tmthforu94]

I'd like to see some more credible polling firms weigh in, but what I like the most in this is that for just about every poll that's been released, we've seen an improvement for Governor Romney. If the election were today, I think he might win.

[afleitch]

I'd like to see some more credible polling firms weigh in, but what I like the most in this is that for just about every poll that's been released, we've seen an improvement for Governor Romney. If the election were today, I think he might win.

Or maybe Friday. PPP tweeted just now:

'Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers.'

[Biden 2024]

You're the first person to notice this.

[Likely Voter]

Kerry got a 4 point bump out of his 2004 debate and I suspect we are seeing something similar for Romney and the good news for him is he was only 4 points behind and Kerry was 6 points behind. So Romney may have moved to a tie, but I still think that Obama has an edge in OH, WI and NV and Romney needs to move into +0.5 to 1% to break through one of those. If Romney can win the town hall debate, I think he could win the election.

[Yank2133]

I'd like to see some more credible polling firms weigh in, but what I like the most in this is that for just about every poll that's been released, we've seen an improvement for Governor Romney. If the election were today, I think he might win.

Or maybe Friday. PPP tweeted just now:

'Other thing I'll say is Saturday interviews we've done for polls across the country look a lot more like our pre-debate than Friday numbers.'

Which is quite similar to Reuters response. There had to be a heavy Romney sample on Friday, but today Reuters basically saw no movement for Mitt.

Mitt got a bounce(mainly due to more enthusiasm from the GOP base).....but he didn't shift anything.

If he dominates Obama in the 2nd debate then watch out........

[後援会]

As much as massive movement would please me, I think it's a bit too early for anyone to jump to conclusions.

[opebo]

...I still think that Obama has an edge in OH, WI and NV and Romney needs to move into +0.5 to 1% to break through one of those. If Romney can win the town hall debate, I think he could win the election.

Those three are the key, and NV isn't worrisome at all as it is not so very white.  Really Ohio is the scary one.

[Likely Voter]

...I still think that Obama has an edge in OH, WI and NV and Romney needs to move into +0.5 to 1% to break through one of those. If Romney can win the town hall debate, I think he could win the election.

Those three are the key, and NV isn't worrisome at all as it is not so very white.  Really Ohio is the scary one.

going to my ignore list. I will just assume all responses are are "racists will sweep Romney into office"

[Yank2133]

Yeah, opebo racist rant is getting to be as annoying as politico threads.

[Politico]

The current situation is not analogous to 2004. In 2004, a strong majority expected Kerry to out-debate Bush, which happened. In contrast, everybody except Winfield and I expected Obama to clean Romney's clocks. The exact opposite happened. CNN's polling dating back to 1984 never showed over 60% of viewers declaring somebody the winner of a debate. Romney achieved 67%. Absolutely devastating for Obama..

[Ty440]

...I still think that Obama has an edge in OH, WI and NV and Romney needs to move into +0.5 to 1% to break through one of those. If Romney can win the town hall debate, I think he could win the election.

Those three are the key, and NV isn't worrisome at all as it is not so very white.  Really Ohio is the scary one.

going to my ignore list. I will just assume all responses are are "racists will sweep Romney into office"

Basically that's what all his responses are.

[anvi]

It's a really telling measure of how persistently close this race is that a movement of two points one way or the other appears genuinely "massive."

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Kerry got a 4 point bump out of his 2004 debate and I suspect we are seeing something similar for Romney and the good news for him is he was only 4 points behind and Kerry was 6 points behind. So Romney may have moved to a tie, but I still think that Obama has an edge in OH, WI and NV and Romney needs to move into +0.5 to 1% to break through one of those. If Romney can win the town hall debate, I think he could win the election.

Considering historically, how horrible Romney is in such formats that aren't "pre-arranged/scripted", a Romney win in such a venue would probably cause significant move for him.

I think that the last debate is most important. Regardless of what happens in the first two on mostly domestic stuff, if Mittens comes off like an idiot who can't be trusted with the nukes, Obama will have this locked up similar to how FDR won 1940 on foriegn policy/national security.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

On the flipside though, if Romney's performance even polls even with Obama's at that debate, it will not be a good sign for the president. Foreign policy is all he's got.

[J. J.]

On the flipside though, if Romney's performance even polls even with Obama's at that debate, it will not be a good sign for the president. Foreign policy is all he's got.

Libya will be a problem.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Evidence pointing toward a massive movement: some crappy polls, but lots of them, all telling a consistent story.

Evidence pointing toward a modest bounce: a PPP poll that hasn't come yet.


The fact is, guys, we have no means to know what's actually happening. This could go anywhere from Romney +1 to Romney +5.

[J. J.]

Evidence pointing toward a massive movement: some crappy polls, but lots of them, all telling a consistent story.

Evidence pointing toward a modest bounce: a PPP poll that hasn't come yet.

Well, we have some shifting to Romney on Gallup (weakly) and Rasmussen (strongly).

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We have seen a 5 point shift on PPP  in WI.

[Politico]

Any word yet on Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Oregon?

I had been saying for weeks that the debate would go well, but even I am in awe...

[Politico]

On the flipside though, if Romney's performance even polls even with Obama's at that debate, it will not be a good sign for the president. Foreign policy is all he's got.

Libya will be a problem.

Another thing the Democrats are foolishly clinging to: The hope that Romney only prepared for one debate.

The fact of the matter is that Romney spent an unprecedented amount of time and resources preparing for all three debates. Now anything can happen in the next two debates, but I've said it before and I'll say it again (now that it may no longer fall on deaf ears): Romney is a man on a mission. He is, quite simply, the political version of Rambo/Rocky.

The type of dedication to language arts and psychology is impressive enough, especially for a Republican campaign. But, most important of all, the Romney campaign is thinking at the margin every which way possible. They're running myriad econometric models, using linear programming principles with regards to applied resources before and on Election Day, etc.--the types of things that the Chicago guys in the Obama camp could never comprehend, let alone match, even if they spent the next four years studying the work. And Romney is the leader behind it all, the one man that everybody on the team would do anything for...

[Hoverbored123]

Only time will tell what the full effect of the debate is, but it's impossible to deny that Romney did himself some good.  To be fair, part of it may be due to expectations, but after re-watching part of the debate tonight, I've concluded that Romney did a legitimately good job, even if not at the Reagan-in-'80 level.  What impressed me most about it was how effectively he came back from each attack and accusation the president put out, making clear points of his own, not to mention that he was more relaxed and confident.  The president's body language was not at all reassuring; like Jimmy Carter in 1980, he talked like a "loser" (strictly in terms of body language, mind you). 

The strength of Romney's performance was not only style-wise; he made substantive points that viewers seemed to connect with.  He dispelled a lot of hearsay about him being an emotionless plutocrat and proved himself to be a viable alternative to Obama in the minds of viewers.  For this reason, I think the comparison to 1980 is a least somewhat apt.  Also, I don't think this is just a "bounce," personally; with this debate, Romney has fundamentally shifted people's perception of himself in a way that will help him enormously. 

A Romney victory is far from a done deal, but I'm convinced it's more than possible. 

[pbrower2a]

On the flipside though, if Romney's performance even polls even with Obama's at that debate, it will not be a good sign for the president. Foreign policy is all he's got.

Libya will be a problem.

Another thing the Democrats are foolishly clinging to: The hope that Romney only prepared for one debate.

No -- just some well-polished lies and denials for which nobody can prepare as well as regurgitation of the usual appeals from right-wing groups such as the National Chamber of Commerce. Romney had scrupulously avoided the latter, but he latched onto such a right-wing corporate appeal as 'broaden the base of taxation'. In essence, that is an appeal for a flat tax and probably the repeal of the Earned Income Tax Credit.

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He was losing, and badly. Voters were ignoring him. So he put effort into an attempt to change the game. It is a high-risk gamble, and in theory it could work.

Sure, he is a man on a mission. His place in history as rescuer of America from economic, cultural, and political decline. At times the treatment offered is worse than the ailment. 

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But is America on his team? Mitt has deep-pocket backers, and they can use econometric models and linear programming to his effort at will because nobody owns those. Somehow I think that President Obama has used those first and has better refined them.   

[7,052,770]

Obama has dropped from around 87% to around 80% on 538.  That might qualify as massive, but it's nothing to get too worked up over yet.  If the other 3 debates all produce 7 point drops in win probability too, we'll have a real horserace.

[Earthling]

Obama needs a good second debate to get back to where he was before the first debate. If he does, he will probably win, if he fails, he will probably lose.

I am certain that Obama knows the stakes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Obama has dropped from around 87% to around 80% on 538.  That might qualify as massive, but it's nothing to get too worked up over yet.  If the other 3 debates all produce 7 point drops in win probability too, we'll have a real horserace.

The 538 forecast model, as well-designed as it is, is not really able to grasp sudden and massive trends (that's not what I say, that's what Nate says). It is likely that Obama's position is overestimated right now.