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| | |-+  Unemployment drops to 7.8%, labor force up.
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Author Topic: Unemployment drops to 7.8%, labor force up.  (Read 2645 times)
oakvale
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« on: October 05, 2012, 07:36:47 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

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Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?
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« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2012, 07:39:16 am »
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This month- +114,000
Last month- +142,000, revised from +96,000
July - +181,000, revised from +141,000
Workweek up 0.1 to 34.5 hours
Hourly wages up 0.4 percent
Jobless rate down sharply to 7.8 percent

In the past 3 months, jobs growth has been at a monthly average rate of 146,000 per month. That's above the 104,115 per month needed to keep up with population growth. In fact, it's consistent with a long term unemployment rate under 8 percent. So the drop of unemployment below 8 percent cannot be attributed to labor force discouragement. Looking at the revisions, again, particularly to August, it shows why we shouldn't put too much stock on one month's numbers, and look at the medium term trend instead.
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oakvale
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« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2012, 07:40:51 am »
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Don't these revisions basically show that Q3 was pretty good, all things considered?
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Politico
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« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2012, 07:41:09 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

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Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

We need to get consistently on track with 200,000 to 250,000 jobs per month in order to finally get our employment situation back in order.

Romney can do it. Obama can't.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 07:43:07 am by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2012, 07:42:05 am »
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Considering the revisions, this is actually a pretty good jobs report. At first I had thought the drop in unemployment is due to lower labor force participation, but I was pleasantly surprised.
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« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2012, 07:42:40 am »
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Stocks are going up as well, this is being regarded as a good report.
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brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2012, 07:42:43 am »
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Dominating.

"43 months of unemployment above 8 percent" was such a useful line while it was true.
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afleitch
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« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2012, 07:43:04 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

Quote
Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

So employment keeping up with population growth, your mantra for the past few months doesn't matter anymore?
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oakvale
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2012, 07:43:27 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

Quote
Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

Eh, look past the headline number - it's a pretty solid report.
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morgieb
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2012, 07:44:59 am »
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Oooh yay!
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Politico
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2012, 07:45:10 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

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Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

So employment keeping up with population growth, your mantra for the past few months doesn't matter anymore?

I'm sorry, but cheering over 114,000 jobs being created almost half a decade after the start of the recession is downright pathetic.

This is clearly not good enough. We've had this malaise, it's not an outright recession but it's not a recovery either, for almost half a decade. It needs to change and soon before it's too late.

We have 23 million people out of work.
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2012, 07:46:10 am »
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Can our resident GOP hacks please spin this as a disaster?

This is a good jobs report, considering the revisions, the slight upticks to wages and workweek, and labor force participation.

This is going to result in a couple very nice talking points politically. (considering this is the 2012 Election Board)

Let's take this to the economics board.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 07:48:50 am by AWallTEP81 »Logged



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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2012, 07:46:28 am »
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There was a lot of talk last month about the -368k drop in labor force participation. Well, this month it rose by 418k.
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Politico
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2012, 07:46:43 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

Quote
Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

Eh, look past the headline number - it's a pretty solid report.

It's a pretty solid report...if you're clinging to desperation.

Cheering over this is like cheering over a "C-" grade. Maybe that cuts it for some of you, but it does not cut it for most of America.

23 million people out of work. Millions more who can only find part-time work but want full-time work. This is unacceptable.
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 08:05:50 am by Politico »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2012, 07:47:19 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

Quote
Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

Eh, look past the headline number - it's a pretty solid report.

It's a pretty solid report...if you're clinging to desperation.

Talking of desperation....
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brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2012, 07:47:52 am »
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Big Bird's going to be snapped up in no time
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Politico
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2012, 08:02:13 am »
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In September 2011, 202,000 jobs were created.
In September 2012, only 114,000 jobs were created.

Things are getting worse, not better.

From 35 million people on food stamps to 47 million people; 23 million people out of work with millions more who can only find part-time work. These figures will not change until we have a change in leadership, and a president who understands the gravity of the situation along with economics (the president is a great speaker, but he is completely clueless on issues involving numbers as evidenced by the first debate).
« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 08:07:40 am by Politico »Logged

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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2012, 08:04:42 am »
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Politically, very good numbers for Obama.  The only "bad" thing was that the unemployment rate isn't below where it was at his start date, and no one was expecting it to be better.

Don't these revisions basically show that Q3 was pretty good, all things considered?

Probably that Q3 was unnecessary. 
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J. J.

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oakvale
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2012, 08:05:48 am »
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Politically, very good numbers for Obama.  The only "bad" thing was that the unemployment rate isn't below where it was at his start date, and no one was expecting it to be better.

Don't these revisions basically show that Q3 was pretty good, all things considered?

Probably that Q3 was unnecessary. 

Q3, not QE3. Tongue
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Politico
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2012, 08:06:30 am »
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I think we can safely call this good news for Obama. Wink

Key point -

Quote
Labor force rose by ~400k. Participation rate largely unchanged.

What debate?

Maybe mediocre jobs reports are good news in Europe, but America expects better.

Eh, look past the headline number - it's a pretty solid report.

It's a pretty solid report...if you're clinging to desperation.

Talking of desperation....


202,000 jobs were created in September 2011. Things are getting worse, not better.

What were you saying about desperation?
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brittain33
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« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2012, 08:07:22 am »
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202,000 jobs were created in September 2011. Things are getting worse, not better.

Why are you posting this comment here when you just made a thread with the exact same comment?
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Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2012, 08:08:51 am »
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202,000 jobs were created in September 2011. Things are getting worse, not better.

Why are you posting this comment here when you just made a thread with the exact same comment?

For the purposes of trolling.
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wan
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« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2012, 08:16:26 am »
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202,000 jobs were created in September 2011. Things are getting worse, not better.

Why are you posting this comment here when you just made a thread with the exact same comment?

For the purposes of trolling.

congrats mr president.
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АverroŽs Nix
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« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2012, 08:19:24 am »
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These numbers are far better than what I had expected. But by far the best part of this jobs report is that it's the last one that will be treated as a major event in horse-race coverage.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2012, 08:25:17 am »
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At least this puts the end to the 43 straights months of 8% unemployment line.
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