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Author Topic: Unemployment drops to 7.8%, labor force up.  (Read 2657 times)
Breaking hearts and minds
Old Europe
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« Reply #50 on: October 05, 2012, 11:10:56 am »
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A good report, but no POTUS had been reelected since FDR with unemployment above 7.2%.

That's simply because it hasn't happened so far.
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Nagas
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« Reply #51 on: October 05, 2012, 11:20:39 am »
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A good report, but no POTUS had been reelected since FDR with unemployment above 7.2%.

You are aware that there is no magic number of unemployment that will guarantee victory or defeat for an incumbent, right? UE was 3.9% in 2000 yet Gore still lost.
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« Reply #52 on: October 05, 2012, 11:21:28 am »
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this got Obama about half the ground he lost from the debate back on Intrade.
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in a mirror, dimly lit
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« Reply #53 on: October 05, 2012, 11:23:42 am »
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A good report, but no POTUS had been reelected since FDR with unemployment above 7.2%.

Problem of induction.
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asexual trans victimologist
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« Reply #54 on: October 05, 2012, 11:40:36 am »
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I don't often agree with J.J., but I do in this thread--although I'd caution against treating this as any more of a knockout for Obama in terms of a month from now than Wednesday was for Romney. Before Wednesday, I was feeling pretty gung-ho about this election. Now, I'm optimistic again, but gung-ho's not a word I'd use at this point.
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

His idea of freedom is - it is a bad thing and should be stopped at all costs.

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President von Cat
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« Reply #55 on: October 05, 2012, 12:16:26 pm »
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I hate to come off as a hack, but I can't help but think that this helps Obama. The 8% talking point is gone, probably forever, and the coverage that this will generate essentially wipes out Romney's debate win.
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It makes me happy Republicans will never be able to say they defeated Obama. Never ever.
Paul Kemp
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« Reply #56 on: October 05, 2012, 12:32:01 pm »
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I'll wait for the October numbers.
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NHI
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« Reply #57 on: October 05, 2012, 12:49:44 pm »
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If Romney keeps hammering Obama on the economy and continues what he started on Wednesday he will win this election.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #58 on: October 05, 2012, 12:50:53 pm »
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If Romney keeps hammering Obama on the economy and continues what he started on Wednesday he will win this election.

He lost his 8% UE talking point.
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NHI
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« Reply #59 on: October 05, 2012, 12:51:43 pm »
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If Romney keeps hammering Obama on the economy and continues what he started on Wednesday he will win this election.

He lost his 8% UE talking point.

True, but one cannot make the argument that this economy is thriving, despite Friday's numbers.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #60 on: October 05, 2012, 12:55:25 pm »
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If Romney keeps hammering Obama on the economy and continues what he started on Wednesday he will win this election.

He lost his 8% UE talking point.

True, but one cannot make the argument that this economy is thriving, despite Friday's numbers.

That is a hard case to make.

The key is trend, people remember where the economy was in 2009 and now in 2012. Consumer sentiment is up, outlook of the economy is up, and even the right/wrong track is up.

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J. J.
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« Reply #61 on: October 05, 2012, 12:58:13 pm »
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I hate to come off as a hack, but I can't help but think that this helps Obama. The 8% talking point is gone, probably forever, and the coverage that this will generate essentially wipes out Romney's debate win.

I think it is a plus, but:

A.  We don't know how much of a plus the debate will be for Romney.

B.  How much of a plus unemployment will be for Obama.
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J. J.

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The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Likely Voter
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« Reply #62 on: October 05, 2012, 12:59:44 pm »
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Polls have been showing growing economic optimism. This will only help.  There will come a point when Romney might look bad for being too gloomy and doomy
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Yank2133
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« Reply #63 on: October 05, 2012, 01:03:22 pm »
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Polls have been showing growing economic optimism. This will only help.  There will come a point when Romney might look bad for being too gloomy and doomy

Exactly.

Romney has to trend carefully with this.
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« Reply #64 on: October 05, 2012, 01:21:27 pm »
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True, but one cannot make the argument that this economy is thriving, despite Friday's numbers.

Obama's been making the case that he inherited a terrible mess and now he can plausibly say we're digging our way out. 
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« Reply #65 on: October 05, 2012, 01:33:05 pm »
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Romney's entire campaign has been doom and gloom! I understand that a challenger has to portray the incumbent in a negative light, but on top of all that he also has to make a case for a renaissance under his administration. Reagan did it, Clinton did it, etc etc. They balanced between sowing the seeds of fear (of 4 more years of the other guy) and excitement about a new administration.

After a while, Romney looks like Eeyore when he spouts off the same negativity about every jobs report, even good ones. "Hundreds of thousands of Americans found work this summer? Well everything still sucks as far as I'm concerned."
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Can't we all just get along?
Likely Voter
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« Reply #66 on: October 05, 2012, 01:43:32 pm »
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LOL FOX



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King
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« Reply #67 on: October 05, 2012, 01:49:38 pm »
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It is fair and balanced to ask that question.  The problem with FOX is that they most certainly will stop asking it if Romney were to win.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #68 on: October 05, 2012, 01:52:31 pm »
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A good report, but no POTUS had been reelected since FDR with unemployment above 7.2%.

The 2007-2009 meltdown in stock prices is about half a severe as that of 1929-1932... and worse than anything else in the last 80 years. This decade is much more similar to the 1930s than anything since the 1930s except in technology.
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King
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« Reply #69 on: October 05, 2012, 01:53:48 pm »
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I'm not sure FOX is doing Mitt any favors with this headline.

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HockeyDude
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« Reply #70 on: October 05, 2012, 02:01:07 pm »
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These Republicans who are flooding the airwaves and 'net with accusations that the numbers are fabricated, and even that they are being fabricated by OBAMA... you are not doing Mitt Romney any favors. 

I was convinced that the debate Wednesday was a major turning point... I'm also convinced that this is another major turning point, and that in a couple weeks we will be back to where we were before the debate. 

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« Reply #71 on: October 05, 2012, 02:06:04 pm »
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real numbers speak for themselves

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
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Paul/Cruz 2016!
Mr.Phips
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« Reply #72 on: October 05, 2012, 02:08:08 pm »
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Um no.  These numbers were clearly jimmied.  The unemployment rate does NOT fall by .3% when the economy adds only 114,000 jobs.  It rarely even happens when it adds 300,000+ jobs.  Something smells here.
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J. J.
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« Reply #73 on: October 05, 2012, 02:10:50 pm »
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Um no.  These numbers were clearly jimmied.  The unemployment rate does NOT fall by .3% when the economy adds only 114,000 jobs.  It rarely even happens when it adds 300,000+ jobs.  Something smells here.

Well, I believe the numbers.
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J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

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Yank2133
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« Reply #74 on: October 05, 2012, 02:10:58 pm »
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Um no.  These numbers were clearly jimmied.  The unemployment rate does NOT fall by .3% when the economy adds only 114,000 jobs.  It rarely even happens when it adds 300,000+ jobs.  Something smells here.

There were revisions to the past 2 months....hence the drop.
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