FL-02: Lester & Associates (DCCC): Tied ballgame

[Miles]

Report.

Sutherland (R)- 43%
Lawson (D)- 43%

Romney- 47%
Obama- 46%

Nelson- 49%
Mack- 39%

After respondents were read 'positive profiles' of both candidates, it was tied at 47%.

[Miles]

The Presidential numbers seem too favorable to Obama, as he lost 52-47 in 2008 and the district is trending strongly Republican.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I don't buy that the race is tied but even so this district ought to be nowhere near competitive.
Is there some kind of problem with Southerland? 

[DrScholl]

I think the trend is topped out at this point, some of the counties in the district already swung very heavily in 2008. Leon County votes Democratic enough for there to be a fairly high Democratic floor there, so 46% is reasonable. 

Lawson represented much of the district in the state senate, so he has connections there and the area votes more Democratic on lower levels. The NRCC decided to go in here a couple days ago, so it does look like there is a race here.

[minionofmidas]

People? Reality check? This is not a district with particularly many old-style Southern Democrats. Though it does have them, including a few that voted Democratic until 2008 (exclusive) for President, and far more that did until 2008 (inclusive) for Congress. The 48% Obama coalition here consists of Tallahassee State Government and Uni Libruls plus some rural Blacks. This district is not trending anywhere. (The trend map on the Atlas is deceptive; the two counties shown in red on that have two thirds of the population.) This means that Democrats have a hard time getting those final points now, but it also means Al Lawson has a very high floor.

Thank you.

[Mr.Phips]

Even Alex Sink did win this district solidly in 2010.

However, I have a hard time seeing Lawson getting over the top here.  He will carry Tallahasse's Leon county by 20%+  as well as getting huge margins in Gadsden and Jefferson, but can he do well enough in the Dixiecrat counties?