POLITICO weekly tracking poll: Obama+2

[Tender Branson]

If the election were held today and you had to make a choice, for whom would you vote ...

50-48 Obama

How would you rate the job Barack Obama has been doing as President? Do you approve or disapprove of the job he is doing?

50-48 Approve

Favorables:

52-45 Obama
47-47 Romney

Sample: 44% D, 40% R, 16% I

THE TARRANCE GROUP and LAKE RESEARCH PARTNERS
N = 1,000 Registered “likely” voters
Margin of error + 3.1%
Field Dates: October 1-4, 2012

http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/politico_gwbgp_trackingoct8_questionnaire.html

[Eraserhead]

lol. This poll is basically always Obama +2, no matter what.

[Likely Voter]

This is strange. The article on Politico says it is 49/48, which is what is listed on RCP. But when you look at the data it is Obama 49/Romney 47, or 50/48 with leaners.

BTW, this poll weights by Party ID like Rasmussen

[Umengus]

"Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats."

It's not the first survey to say that.

if republicans are more enthousiasts than democrats and if they consequently will turn out in big numbers (party id like in 2004 or 2010), Romney has a good shot to win.

[Niemeyerite]

"Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats."

It's not the first survey to say that.

if republicans are more enthousiasts than democrats and if they consequently will turn out in big numbers (party id like in 2004 or 2010), Romney has a good shot to win.

It doesn't matter if all of them vote.

[Eraserhead]

"Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats."

It's not the first survey to say that.

if republicans are more enthousiasts than democrats and if they consequently will turn out in big numbers (party id like in 2004 or 2010), Romney has a good shot to win.

It's not surprising that Republicans are a bit more enthusiastic at the moment. We'll see if that is still the case on November 6th.