Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney

[J. J.]

Even PPP, pre-debate, showed a 4 point lead for Obama.  I doubt if that is too ugly.

[J. J.]

http://race42012.com/2012/10/06/romney-internal-polls-3-in-nh-4-or-5-in-oh/#comments


Internal polling: Romney +3 in NH
Internal Polling: Romney +4-5 in OH

If this is "ugly," UT must be "plain." 

[J. J.]

The "ugly" comment made no sense.  PPP, before the debate, had OH at minus -4 for Romney.

1.  PPP has a slight D bias.

2.  OH probably is a bit more strongly Romney after the debate.

3.  The absentee votes are running better for the R's than 2008.

Tit-for-Tat?

Even if true, these are still internals.

[J. J.]

Breitbart.org is a straight-up propaganda outlet, so no, unsourced tweets about internal polls from the group that frames Shirley Sherrod isn't something to make anyone upset.

We should then regard Cook as such. 

[J. J.]

Breitbart.org is a straight-up propaganda outlet, so no, unsourced tweets about internal polls from the group that frames Shirley Sherrod isn't something to make anyone upset.

We should then regard Cook as such. 

J.J., it's up to you if you want to compare the reputations of Charlie Cook and Breitbart.org as equals. Knock yourself out.

Looking at the public polling, including PPP, I'd give it to Breitbart.org, though I doubt either is accurate.

[J. J.]

That's where I am. I'm open to a wide range of outcomes from Romney casting off his loser image and wouldn't even judge if the bounce is temporary or long-lived. I keep analogizing this year to 2004, and what happened then was Kerry narrowed a big lead to 2 points and then stayed 2 points behind. I should expect Romney to bounce significantly. But Obama was so solidly ahead in so many of his firewall states like Ohio, it strains credulity. Like if Gore suddenly polled +5 in NC or Colorado. It just doesn't make sense unless you're trying to do a head fake or try to gin up momentum from nothing.

The thing that bothers me about this statement is the idea that Obama was "solidly ahead."  We had three polls in the week before the debate.  One was a mail poll, not exactly a favored method of polling, as President Landon could have told you.  One was a university poll, that was usually running much more pro Obama that all the other polls taken at the time.

The third was PPP.  It has a good track record, and might have a slight Democratic bias, but a very slight one.  That one was showing Obama at +4.

Now, after the debate, which Romney did very well in, it seems very unlikely that his numbers would be "ugly."   That doesn't say he's winning OH, but it shouldn't show him worse off that that PPP poll, and probably would show him better off.