Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney (user search)
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  Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney (search mode)
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Author Topic: Cook: Private OH polls "ugly" for Romney  (Read 5029 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« on: October 05, 2012, 08:55:13 PM »

Charlie Cook breaks down how the swing states are polling for the insiders (pre debate)....

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 05:05:27 PM »

Cook and Silver are highly respected and have shown great accuracy in their predictions and reporting. Neither are Dick Morris like hacks.  I don't understand the need for some to just dismiss things and scream bias over any information that doesn't fit their narratives and to resort to pointless personal attacks is just sad.

As for Sabato, his latest map (before the debate) had NV, VA, IA, WI and OH as all 'lean Obama' with FL, NH and CO as tossups and only NC as lean Romney. And other reporting from Politico and others has stated that internal polling for OH to be bad for Romney. Public polling has been the same. It is not hard to believe that OH and WI are Romney's hardest states in the list of nine battlegrounds.   
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2012, 01:57:37 PM »

Romney is refusing to consider MI and PA as swing states
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 02:48:37 PM »

If the Breitbart guy is right and those are accurate numbers for Romney, then the election is pretty much over. That would mean Romney is ahead in every swing state and would have a good sized national lead.

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2012, 05:40:23 PM »

If the Breitbart tweet is true we will know fairly soon as it has major implications and would result in specific actions. If Romney's internal polls had truly shown a 10 point shift in the polls, then this would be huge news that they would want to get out to help reshape the narrative. They would want to get this info out to more mainstream media outlets. By Monday morning Politico.com should be reporting on this as they  have often reported on internal Romney polling and shifts before.

It would also be a complete realignment of the map. With information like that Team Romney should have a huge lead in NC and could stop spending there (the same way they arent spending in MO and IN). It would also put states like MI, PA, MN and NM into play, so we should also expect Romney to start spending in some or all of those states within the next week as well. These shifts in money would also be reported fairly soon.

And then of course we should also see these things reflected in the public polling as well.

Anyone here want to place bets on if all these corroborating things will come to pass in the next few days?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344


« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 10:32:13 AM »

FWIW a Romney surrogate who is from OH was on Daily Rundown today talking FP but Chuck asked him about OH and he said he thought Obama peaked at 8% but was still ahead in Ohio by 2 or 3 points. If they were sitting on Romney ahead 5 point polling, I think he would have mentioned it or at least said that he thought it was a tied race or something better than acknowledging the President is ahead even after Romney's debate win
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