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Author Topic: Future of the parties  (Read 1097 times)
Simfan34
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« on: October 05, 2012, 10:33:17 pm »
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The GOP is more libertarian, heavily pro-Latino, somewhat traditionalist

The Dems. are more populist, interventionist, and moderately progressive.



Random Republican landslide one year:

« Last Edit: October 05, 2012, 11:20:09 pm by ስምፋን፫፬ »Logged

Senator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #1 on: October 06, 2012, 07:37:43 pm »
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A 67% D state going blue? When is this, 2040?
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2012, 07:48:43 pm »
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Very bleak for Republicans until they educate the public about what we really believe.  Here's my map:
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« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2012, 05:20:34 pm »
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If the GOP goes the direction it should go, you will see them become more Libertarian, and more socially moderate while maintaining fiscal conservatism.

The Democrats will stay close to where they are now, and perhaps become more interventionist and progressive.
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Senator Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2012, 11:54:41 am »
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Very bleak for Republicans until they educate the public about what we really believe.  Here's my map:


Romney/Ryan has educated the public. The public doesn't like it.[/hack]
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There is a lot of humor to be mined from this as the mind of LBJ in the body of an 18 month old baby girl is quite hilarious.

Alfred is the Atlasian equivalent of a malevolent deity.

Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2012, 01:38:07 pm »
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Very bleak for Republicans until they educate the public about what we really believe.  Here's my map:


Romney/Ryan has educated the public. The public doesn't like it.[/hack]
Yeah, but they haven't done the type of comprehensive education that we need.  Republicans have to get people to reconsider some of their liberal views and prioritize economic issues.  Romney and Ryan may have educated the public, but they haven't fundamentally changed the system or the electoral map in the way that Clinton did for the Democrats and Republicans need to do now.
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Spanish Moss
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« Reply #6 on: October 17, 2012, 07:40:37 am »
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My predictions for 20-30 years from now:

The Democrats will continue moving rightward.  Politicians now who are moderate Republicans but would definitely not be Democrat by today's standards, those with the same views at that time will be the norm in the Democratic Party.  They'll still have progressive Kucinich/Sanders types, but they'll remain more few and far between.  The more right leaning wing of the party will be even more conservative, but not to the degree of the "moral majority" Rick Santorum types.

The Republicans - one of two things will happen.  Either they will have continued to split between more libertarian types and social conservatives, leading the party weakened as both sides make concessions, with the wishy-washiness of the party in general pushing independents toward the Democrats.  Or - a third party wealthy Ross Perot type who is both a social libertarian and economic conservative (but not to the degree of Gary Johnson or Ron Paul) will run, leading the Republican party fragmenting in different directions (like my first example, but far more severe) to try and prevent the movement behind that candidate from taking away potential Republican voters - effectively crushing the Republican party for a decade or so, if not more.

Either way - the Democrats, as a party, will fare far better.  However, liberals and progressives will certainly lose... really, the only winners being people who are currently moderate Republicans.  And the only way for true liberals and progressives to prevent this is start voting third party to force the Democrats to actually have to earn their vote rather than take it for granted.  But I seriously doubt that will happen on any meaningful level.
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Spanish Moss
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« Reply #7 on: October 17, 2012, 07:44:00 am »
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(Can someone give me the link to where to make maps?  I'd like to post one here.)
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Sol
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2012, 09:46:30 am »
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I think this is the most likely. The Republicans will be forced to move leftward on immigration to remain viable.

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MooMooMoo
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2012, 10:43:29 am »
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My predictions for 20-30 years from now:

The Democrats will continue moving rightward.  Politicians now who are moderate Republicans but would definitely not be Democrat by today's standards, those with the same views at that time will be the norm in the Democratic Party.  They'll still have progressive Kucinich/Sanders types, but they'll remain more few and far between.  The more right leaning wing of the party will be even more conservative, but not to the degree of the "moral majority" Rick Santorum types.

The Republicans - one of two things will happen.  Either they will have continued to split between more libertarian types and social conservatives, leading the party weakened as both sides make concessions, with the wishy-washiness of the party in general pushing independents toward the Democrats.  Or - a third party wealthy Ross Perot type who is both a social libertarian and economic conservative (but not to the degree of Gary Johnson or Ron Paul) will run, leading the Republican party fragmenting in different directions (like my first example, but far more severe) to try and prevent the movement behind that candidate from taking away potential Republican voters - effectively crushing the Republican party for a decade or so, if not more.

Either way - the Democrats, as a party, will fare far better.  However, liberals and progressives will certainly lose... really, the only winners being people who are currently moderate Republicans.  And the only way for true liberals and progressives to prevent this is start voting third party to force the Democrats to actually have to earn their vote rather than take it for granted.  But I seriously doubt that will happen on any meaningful level.
In a way, that's always kind of been the general direction of the country. More civil rights and liberties, but more relative deprivation.

  Think of how society is diferrent between 1967 and 2012.
In 1967, the economy was a lot less cut-throat. It was easier to get reliable insurance and a job that gave you at least an even return on your investment. Hard work was enough back then. Now, those who provide you a livelyhood can just walk away. The only way to be as sure of your welfare as 50% of the population was in 1967,  is to be in that top 10% of people who have enough savings and credit to cover emergencies and put out their own shingle. Else, your life becomes a 5 or 10 year cycle of having a normal life and a $40000/year existence  and living like they do on Trailer Park Boys until you are too old for the hard knock life or you become big enough to retire or become your own guy.  

On the other hand, being gay was almost like being a drug user and having or providing abortion care was like be a drug dealer.  If you went out for the night and were a victim of a violent crime as a gay person, you would be on your own. Back then, someone accusing someone of responsibility of being gay wasn't a joke, it was a semi-serious thing. Heck, even just a couple of years ago it was a serious allegation if you were a service member. As a young person, if you made the mistake of having sex and there were any consequences that arose from it, you would more or less be alone or you would lose a lot of your freedom unless your family had the resources and you were  willing to take the risks to make a "shortcut" to get your life back on track.

So in say... 2057, I'd imagine that it will be even harder to make a living, but you will be more likely to be accepted as a person if it does not interfere with your ability to your own weight.

By the time I am an old man, I expect that the use of marijuana and some PEDs will become an accepted part of the way one gets through life..or at least grudgingly tolerated. Further, I think that people will have the means and acceptance to become whatever they want to become as long as becoming that, whatever it is, doesn't damage someone else's health or property. On the other hand, I do believe that the average person must always expect to be mobile and always live from gig to gig unless they have all that they need to survive without having any liability whatsoever.
« Last Edit: October 17, 2012, 10:51:23 am by Mutthole Surfers »Logged


the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
A.G. Snowstalker
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2012, 11:51:05 am »
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I'm honestly a bit more optimistic. Though it may take a moderate like Cuomo losing an election, the Democratic Party will eventually shift towards social democracy. The era of conservatism and deregulation really didn't start until 1980, and like the Gilded Age, it may eventually end.
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Anton Kreitzer
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« Reply #11 on: October 17, 2012, 07:11:25 pm »
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I think this is the most likely. The Republicans will be forced to move leftward on immigration to remain viable.



Why is Mississippi Democrat-held in this scenario?
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« Reply #12 on: October 17, 2012, 07:24:32 pm »
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I think this is the most likely. The Republicans will be forced to move leftward on immigration to remain viable.



Why is Mississippi Democrat-held in this scenario?
The demographics are moving it towards minority-majority.
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Spanish Moss
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2012, 02:47:43 am »
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Based on the idea that the Democrats will move further rightward while Republicans become less neo-con (with the neo-con movement not being much of a factor in either party) and more libertarian, my best guess is the following for around the year 2030 (tossup states obviously in gray):

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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2012, 11:47:55 am »
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A Neo-'Rockefeller'-ish brand of Republicans based in the powder blue states lead the party. 
The Green States face Bankruptcy/Bond default/Austerity. 

The dems faced with perpetual defeat turn to A powerful southern based Bush-Clinton-esque political family to break up the southern block. 



The NE will always be in opposition to the Deep south and thus eventually realigns.
This re-balances the parties 269-269 
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #15 on: October 21, 2012, 09:03:00 pm »
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Scenario A:  Romney wins, balances the budget with significant cuts to social services, entitlements, etc.  Republicans win back the libertarian suburbs for good.  Democrats have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unite the urban and rural poor in opposition to Romney's cuts.  Abortion and gay marriage cease to be major issues in campaigns.  Polarization declines and there are many more potential swing states:



Scenario B:  Obama wins and gets credit for balancing the budget and the blame for the cuts necessary to achieve this.  Democrats now control the suburbs but their urban margins decline and rural areas (outside of New England) gradually become as R as urban areas are D today.  Polarization continues to increase.  Most elections are fought exclusively in four large states:


 

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MooMooMoo
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« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2012, 04:33:54 pm »
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Well, scenario A depends on a lot. Scenario B is a known value.

If October Romney is the Romney we elect, Scenario A will probably be true. If we elect March or April Romney, the next 4 to 8 years will be a repeat of the last 12.
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the result is a sense that we were told to attend a lavish dinner party that was going to be wonderful and by the time we got there, all the lobster and steak had been eaten, a fight had broken out, the police had been called and all that was left was warm beer and chips.
[/quot
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« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2012, 05:02:34 pm »
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 I think something like B is likely, even with a Romney win.
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BeccaM
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« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2012, 05:13:37 pm »
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All of these threads are usually started by Republicans because they're embarrassed by the current state of their party and want it to change.

I honestly don't see significant changes in party platforms over the next 20 years though. If Romney loses, Republicans will blame the messenger rather than the message. If he wins, the far right message will have prevailed. Either way they have no reason to become more moderate or libertarian.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: October 22, 2012, 07:08:55 pm »
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Well, scenario A depends on a lot. Scenario B is a known value.

If October Romney is the Romney we elect, Scenario A will probably be true. If we elect March or April Romney, the next 4 to 8 years will be a repeat of the last 12.

The Clintonian Dems are clearly positioning themselves for one last bite at the apple in 2016 with H. Clinton, Warner, Schweitzer, etc.  Whether they actually get the realignment or just ride off into the sunset depends on the tolerance of rural areas for Republican budgets.  This also has congressional implications because a lot of the 2010 gerrymanders would implode with any significant rural shift.   
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2012, 01:32:50 am »
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All of these threads are usually started by Republicans because they're embarrassed by the current state of their party and want it to change.

I honestly don't see significant changes in party platforms over the next 20 years though. If Romney loses, Republicans will blame the messenger rather than the message. If he wins, the far right message will have prevailed. Either way they have no reason to become more moderate or libertarian.
Yeah, but if Romney loses, then it has no choice but to become more Libertarian.  Republicans can't afford to have anymore war mongers or social conservatives deluting the party's grass roots.

Something like this, the elections slowly realigns back to pre 1924 Calvin Coolidge election.

« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 02:08:14 am by 5280 »Logged

Paul/Cruz 2016!
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2012, 12:00:36 pm »
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All of these threads are usually started by Republicans because they're embarrassed by the current state of their party and want it to change.

I honestly don't see significant changes in party platforms over the next 20 years though. If Romney loses, Republicans will blame the messenger rather than the message. If he wins, the far right message will have prevailed. Either way they have no reason to become more moderate or libertarian.
Yeah, but if Romney loses, then it has no choice but to become more Libertarian.  Republicans can't afford to have anymore war mongers or social conservatives deluting the party's grass roots.

Something like this, the elections slowly realigns back to pre 1924 Calvin Coolidge election.



If the south flips to the Dems, I assume that the social conservatives are voting for the Dems as well. Who would you have going to the GOP? Soccer moms, Middle Class minorities, who?
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2012, 02:17:49 pm »
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The GOP is more libertarian, heavily pro-Latino, somewhat traditionalist

Libertarian is very much in opposition to traditionalist and pro-Latino, Simfan.



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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2012, 03:36:32 pm »
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Most Republican voters viewed Romney as a Massachusetts moderate and were initially unsatisfied with his nomination. A majority never supported him in the primary. His staunch conservative opponents just sucked as candidates and were too fractured. So no, they won't necessarily become more libertarian/moderate if/when Romney loses. They'll likely dig in even more.

Do you really think Republican voters will blame themselves and their ideology for their loss? That goes against the #1 rule of conservatives - never accept responsibility for anything and always play the victim and blame everything else. They'll say their candidate wasn't a true conservative like always.

The bigots and lunatics in your party aren't going away for awhile. Deal with it.
« Last Edit: October 23, 2012, 03:39:10 pm by B »Logged

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« Reply #24 on: October 23, 2012, 05:08:35 pm »
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Assuming that Obama is re-elected, for the Republicans to move to the center they probably need to lose election after election for things to change significantly.
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