Future of the parties (user search)
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Author Topic: Future of the parties  (Read 1778 times)
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« on: October 17, 2012, 10:43:29 AM »
« edited: October 17, 2012, 10:51:23 AM by Mutthole Surfers »

My predictions for 20-30 years from now:

The Democrats will continue moving rightward.  Politicians now who are moderate Republicans but would definitely not be Democrat by today's standards, those with the same views at that time will be the norm in the Democratic Party.  They'll still have progressive Kucinich/Sanders types, but they'll remain more few and far between.  The more right leaning wing of the party will be even more conservative, but not to the degree of the "moral majority" Rick Santorum types.

The Republicans - one of two things will happen.  Either they will have continued to split between more libertarian types and social conservatives, leading the party weakened as both sides make concessions, with the wishy-washiness of the party in general pushing independents toward the Democrats.  Or - a third party wealthy Ross Perot type who is both a social libertarian and economic conservative (but not to the degree of Gary Johnson or Ron Paul) will run, leading the Republican party fragmenting in different directions (like my first example, but far more severe) to try and prevent the movement behind that candidate from taking away potential Republican voters - effectively crushing the Republican party for a decade or so, if not more.

Either way - the Democrats, as a party, will fare far better.  However, liberals and progressives will certainly lose... really, the only winners being people who are currently moderate Republicans.  And the only way for true liberals and progressives to prevent this is start voting third party to force the Democrats to actually have to earn their vote rather than take it for granted.  But I seriously doubt that will happen on any meaningful level.
In a way, that's always kind of been the general direction of the country. More civil rights and liberties, but more relative deprivation.

  Think of how society is diferrent between 1967 and 2012.
In 1967, the economy was a lot less cut-throat. It was easier to get reliable insurance and a job that gave you at least an even return on your investment. Hard work was enough back then. Now, those who provide you a livelyhood can just walk away. The only way to be as sure of your welfare as 50% of the population was in 1967,  is to be in that top 10% of people who have enough savings and credit to cover emergencies and put out their own shingle. Else, your life becomes a 5 or 10 year cycle of having a normal life and a $40000/year existence  and living like they do on Trailer Park Boys until you are too old for the hard knock life or you become big enough to retire or become your own guy.  

On the other hand, being gay was almost like being a drug user and having or providing abortion care was like be a drug dealer.  If you went out for the night and were a victim of a violent crime as a gay person, you would be on your own. Back then, someone accusing someone of responsibility of being gay wasn't a joke, it was a semi-serious thing. Heck, even just a couple of years ago it was a serious allegation if you were a service member. As a young person, if you made the mistake of having sex and there were any consequences that arose from it, you would more or less be alone or you would lose a lot of your freedom unless your family had the resources and you were  willing to take the risks to make a "shortcut" to get your life back on track.

So in say... 2057, I'd imagine that it will be even harder to make a living, but you will be more likely to be accepted as a person if it does not interfere with your ability to your own weight.

By the time I am an old man, I expect that the use of marijuana and some PEDs will become an accepted part of the way one gets through life..or at least grudgingly tolerated. Further, I think that people will have the means and acceptance to become whatever they want to become as long as becoming that, whatever it is, doesn't damage someone else's health or property. On the other hand, I do believe that the average person must always expect to be mobile and always live from gig to gig unless they have all that they need to survive without having any liability whatsoever.
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2012, 04:33:54 PM »

Well, scenario A depends on a lot. Scenario B is a known value.

If October Romney is the Romney we elect, Scenario A will probably be true. If we elect March or April Romney, the next 4 to 8 years will be a repeat of the last 12.
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