Future of the parties

[Skill and Chance]

Scenario A:  Romney wins, balances the budget with significant cuts to social services, entitlements, etc.  Republicans win back the libertarian suburbs for good.  Democrats have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to unite the urban and rural poor in opposition to Romney's cuts.  Abortion and gay marriage cease to be major issues in campaigns.  Polarization declines and there are many more potential swing states:

Scenario B:  Obama wins and gets credit for balancing the budget and the blame for the cuts necessary to achieve this.  Democrats now control the suburbs but their urban margins decline and rural areas (outside of New England) gradually become as R as urban areas are D today.  Polarization continues to increase.  Most elections are fought exclusively in four large states:

 

[Skill and Chance]

Well, scenario A depends on a lot. Scenario B is a known value.

If October Romney is the Romney we elect, Scenario A will probably be true. If we elect March or April Romney, the next 4 to 8 years will be a repeat of the last 12.

The Clintonian Dems are clearly positioning themselves for one last bite at the apple in 2016 with H. Clinton, Warner, Schweitzer, etc.  Whether they actually get the realignment or just ride off into the sunset depends on the tolerance of rural areas for Republican budgets.  This also has congressional implications because a lot of the 2010 gerrymanders would implode with any significant rural shift.